I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Sun Apr 10, 2005 1:38 pm Post subject: Was 1999 the peak?
From what I have read, the best price of oil for all time (after inflation) was in 1999, and it has been increasing from this ever since. This leads me to believe that production has peaked, but I am aware that there are other factors like increasing demand in China. Does the reserve data provide any information that can clear this up for me?
The year of lowest price doesn't mean the peak year at all. _________________ A king can't swagger, nor drink like a beggar,
Nor be half so happy as I.
1999 has started to be seen as (or as about) the peak year for oil/gas in the North Sea. That is significant; that is NOT worldwide peak.
Today, however, whether we are past peak, at peak, or near peak is a fairly moot point. This is the peak period; only when declines in production have been constant or notable for YEARS will an actual year of Oil Peak be pronounced. Almost irrelevantly. Because all the consequences of a world with increased demand/declining supply have begun already. THAT is the important point. THAT is what we have to focus on and deal with.
The late Pope John Paul II encouraged Vaclav Havel and Lech Walesa to live as if they were free; the actual freedom came later. I'm no pope, but anyone aware of PO could give similar advice: live as if PO has occurred and depletion is happening. It's close enough to both situations (if they haven't occurred already); one would be wise to live Post Peak-like, simply to get an early start on being adjusted to such a life.
The late Pope John Paul II encouraged Vaclav Havel and Lech Walesa to live as if they were free; the actual freedom came later. I'm no pope, but anyone aware of PO could give similar advice: live as if PO has occurred and depletion is happening. It's close enough to both situations (if they haven't occurred already); one would be wise to live Post Peak-like, simply to get an early start on being adjusted to such a life.
I agree. We are focusing on the technical response we need to make when we should be concentrating on the psychological adjustments. Did you see the Peak Oil To Do List on Energy Bulletin. I blogged it here
The way of life we all think of as normal is really a fluke. A flash in Earth's pan. I have no idea what it will be like after the peak but technical innovation and progress are not going to be part of it. So whatever we are going to use to replace oil is already here. _________________ We're all entitled to our own opinions...but we have to share the facts.
Joined: Apr 13, 2005 Posts: 53 Location: Kingston, ON, Canada
Posted: Fri Apr 22, 2005 1:47 pm Post subject:
Oil prices are affected by so many things. Like the price of a barrel on the futures market for example, which if it is higher than the current price, will encourage people to save their oil until it reaches that price...this would increase the price of oil and not have much to do with peak oil. Also, pure speculation can increase the price of oil, and of course terrorists. Other things that can increase the price of oil are the removal of some subsidies, which I don't think they've done this in North America but I know the IEA urged the removal of subsidies and I think China has done this to some extent.
So, the price of oil depends on many things. Large spikes would probably be associated with peak oil and smaller spikes would be associated with what I wrote above.
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