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Ardalla
Heavy Crude
Joined: May 23, 2004
Posts: 196
Location: Charlottesville, Virginia
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 Posted: Fri Jul 02, 2004 9:02 pm Post subject: Yukos and Peak Oil (AAPG) |
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I periodically glance at the AAPG site in hopes of finding some comment on Peak Oil. So far, nothing jumps out. Does anyone have any idea of why they have not commented one way or the other, and whether Campbell et al have solicited AAPG to give its opinion?
At any rate, I came across this just now while checking out their site.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1519&ncid=732&e=3&u=/afp/20040702/bs_afp/russia_politics_business
| Quote: | | MOSCOW (AFP) - Russia's crisis-ridden oil giant Yukos warned it might be forced to shut down after tax authorities froze its bank accounts and threatened to seize assets to enforce a multi-billion-dollar bill. |
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smiley
Fission
Joined: Apr 16, 2004
Posts: 2101
Location: Europe
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| Posted: Sat Jul 03, 2004 2:17 pm Post subject: |
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well spotted. Combine it with this news
http://www.itv.com/news/1119116.html
| Quote: | | Saboteurs have attacked one of two oil pipelines feeding Iraq's southern export terminals despite increased security following a similar attack last month. "Fire is raging in the 42-inch pipeline on the Faw Peninsula. " |
and we might be seeing $42 oil again this week.
I wonder what Al-Naimi is going to say then. |
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JayHMorrison
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Jun 17, 2004
Posts: 881
Location: Unknown
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| Posted: Sat Jul 03, 2004 3:31 pm Post subject: |
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| smiley wrote: | | raging in the 42-inch pipeline on the Faw Peninsula. " |
and we might be seeing $42 oil again this week.
[/quote]
I hope so. I am short the stocks of Delta, American Airlines and US Air. They always get nailed when oil goes up. Shorting till bankruptcy for all 3 of them. US Air and Delta should be this year. |
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smiley
Fission
Joined: Apr 16, 2004
Posts: 2101
Location: Europe
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| Posted: Sat Jul 03, 2004 5:10 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | hope so. I am short the stocks of Delta, American Airlines and US Air. They always get nailed when oil goes up. Shorting till bankruptcy for all 3 of them. US Air and Delta should be this year. |
Just hope they fall faster than inflation rises |
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Ardalla
Heavy Crude
Joined: May 23, 2004
Posts: 196
Location: Charlottesville, Virginia
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| Posted: Sat Jul 03, 2004 6:53 pm Post subject: |
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[url]MOSCOW, Russia (CNN) -- Russian special interior ministry officers have sealed offices in the headquarters of tax-troubled Yukos oil company, a company spokeswoman said[/url]
Well I step out for a few hours and come back to find this. The plot thickens. |
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Ardalla
Heavy Crude
Joined: May 23, 2004
Posts: 196
Location: Charlottesville, Virginia
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| Posted: Sat Jul 03, 2004 6:56 pm Post subject: |
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That should be a quote above. For some reason I can't edit.  |
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notacornucopian
Heavy Crude
Joined: Apr 27, 2004
Posts: 150
Location: Southern Alberta, Canada
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| Posted: Sat Jul 03, 2004 7:49 pm Post subject: |
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So far, for those who like to connect the dots, we have been informed that:
- Russia had just taken over as the world's largest single non opec producer
- Yukos is a big part of the Russian oil industry
- A Russian court has just said "Nyet" to the selling of assets to cover fines & backtaxes Yukos owes.
- the biggest shareholder of Yukos is sitting in jail
- to pay his fines, etc., he may have to turn over his shares to the Russian government.
Not too long ago, someone on the board suggested that the Saudi's might be holding back production so that they could have more oil to sell at the much higher oil prices we will be seeing in the near future. If the Russian government decided they wanted to be in that position instead of the Saudi's when the time came, why not engineer a way to seize control of a big player like Yukos. Then release the appropriate news that this will hamper production in a big way ( you know how inefficient governments are ), and you have the perfect excuse for not maintaining current production levels. This will put the pressure right back to the Saudi's who will have to back up their claim of excess capacity in a big hurry to maintain their crediblilty.
How will this play out ? This will be worth keeping a close eye on ! |
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MattSavinar
Elite
Joined: May 09, 2004
Posts: 1990
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| Posted: Mon Jul 05, 2004 4:58 pm Post subject: |
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| JayHMorrison wrote: | | smiley wrote: | | raging in the 42-inch pipeline on the Faw Peninsula. " |
and we might be seeing $42 oil again this week.
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I hope so. I am short the stocks of Delta, American Airlines and US Air. They always get nailed when oil goes up. Shorting till bankruptcy for all 3 of them. US Air and Delta should be this year.[/quote]
Jay
Yet you accusse me of tyring to profit from the whole situation. My uncle is a pilot for American and he's got two kids - 12 and 10 years old. And you stand to profit from his pain.
Un-freaking-believable.
Matt |
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JayHMorrison
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Jun 17, 2004
Posts: 881
Location: Unknown
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| Posted: Mon Jul 05, 2004 5:13 pm Post subject: |
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| MattSavinar wrote: | | JayHMorrison wrote: | | smiley wrote: | | raging in the 42-inch pipeline on the Faw Peninsula. " |
and we might be seeing $42 oil again this week.
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I hope so. I am short the stocks of Delta, American Airlines and US Air. They always get nailed when oil goes up. Shorting till bankruptcy for all 3 of them. US Air and Delta should be this year. |
Jay
[/quote]
Yet you accusse me of tyring to profit from the whole situation. My uncle is a pilot for American and he's got two kids - 12 and 10 years old. And you stand to profit from his pain.
Un-freaking-believable.
Matt[/quote]
Your uncle is unfortunately in a business that has no future. The old legacy airlines simply cannot compete with low cost airlines. I expect US Air and Delta to soon goto bankruptcy. United will likely emerge from BK early next year, but they still cannot compete long term. American and Continental are actually in decent shape for now. It remains to be seen what the market looks like until after one or two airlines liquidates.
Southwest is in the best shape. They have hedged their fuel expenses at the equivalent of $24 per barrel oil. They are profitable while everyone else is getting killed.
That entire industry desperately needs one of them to simply liquidate and stop flying. Way too many planes flying the same routes.
Shorting stocks for lousy companies (Delta, US Air, American) is a great way to make money. Stocks go down much faster than they go up. I intend to short the airlines whenever I can. |
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The_Virginian
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Jun 19, 2004
Posts: 1308
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| Posted: Tue Jul 20, 2004 12:44 pm Post subject: |
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Jay,
Face it, you've been called. 
BTW I don't see much wrong with people profiting from the decline of oil anymore than the production of it.
maybe now we can aviod some of the name calling on both sides that has brought no benifit. 
_________________
Eickhorn Daggers!
www.pistolanddagger.com |
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