I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2251 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Tue Apr 26, 2005 7:12 am Post subject:
First, America has had blackouts already, well before 2008. We had blackouts in California and New York. California just couldn't get enough power into the system during peak periods, and in the NE, the system shut down due to peak overload. So, blackouts are possible even without peak oil. Plus, its surprisingly accurate to predict blackouts back in 2000, when everyone would say he was nuts, and then we have blackouts. As Mathew Simmons has said, these American blackouts should have been a wake up call to how fragile our grid system is. Further, keep in mind that Duncan isn't just talking about American blackouts. He's talking about blackouts world wide. Again, we see the first signs of this happening in China, that has rolling power outages similar to California for the last two years in a row now. As the Pricewaterhouse report says, the world will experience blackouts. So, not only has the world already begun experiencing blackouts just as predicted, its not just Duncan saying it anymore.
seahorse, although I agree with what you're saying, I'd like to point out that China is having blackouts because their industrial growth has outpaced their grid growth as opposed to the craziness that happened in California.
We've outgrown our grid, too. The widespread use of air-conditioning and the explosion of the Internet, in particular, have put a big strain on our aging system. Everyone knows it has to be fixed, but it's so expensive, no one wants to do it.
California's problems were only part capacity issues. Supplies in 2001 were tight (high nat gas prices, low hydro power generations and a decade of no investments) and demand significant (due to economic and demographic growth) enough to permit the markets to be artificially gamed by Enron and others. They could have done this as far back as 1998 (the date of the rule changes) but it wasnt until the system got strained enough that manipulation could make a difference.
Consider it a preview. Legislative changes now largely prevent this gaming from recurring but did not fix the underlying supply issues nor address the power demand situation (which has largely recovered from recessionary lows).
The next Californian power crisis will be legit and may not be as far out as one would imagine. _________________ UNplanning the future...
http://unplanning.blogspot.com
First, America has had blackouts already, well before 2008. We had blackouts in California and New York. California just couldn't get enough power into the system during peak periods, and in the NE, the system shut down due to peak overload. So, blackouts are possible even without peak oil. Plus, its surprisingly accurate to predict blackouts back in 2000, when everyone would say he was nuts, and then we have blackouts. As Mathew Simmons has said, these American blackouts should have been a wake up call to how fragile our grid system is. Further, keep in mind that Duncan isn't just talking about American blackouts. He's talking about blackouts world wide. Again, we see the first signs of this happening in China, that has rolling power outages similar to California for the last two years in a row now. As the Pricewaterhouse report says, the world will experience blackouts. So, not only has the world already begun experiencing blackouts just as predicted, its not just Duncan saying it anymore.
Not to mention the vertable collapse of the electrical capacity and infrastructure in much of Africa and elsewhere in the third world in the last few years.
We've outgrown our grid, too. The widespread use of air-conditioning and the explosion of the Internet, in particular, have put a big strain on our aging system. Everyone knows it has to be fixed, but it's so expensive, no one wants to do it.
Remember the fact that virtually all the capacity build-out in the last 10 or 15 years has been natural gas, which has peaked and could be looking at extremely sharp declines.
Yes. Especially here in the northeast, we're very dependent on natural gas. And we've been very lucky the past four or five years. The weather has been unusually mild. Winters that weren't too cold, summers that weren't too hot. If the weather had been more normal, I think we'd already be facing rolling blackouts. We came very close last winter, during one January cold snap.
I agree with much of this. How about the 25 degrees below the historical low out inthe midwest? Shes a brewing. could be off by 10+- years. IMHO. amny neiborhoods went black this winter. my neighborhood has been going out. much due to the massive growth and urbanization/suburbification that is occuring in my beutiful rural county that has been recovering ecologically (as much as it can recover) from the years of rape and mismanagement.
when the economy goes most will go back to the cities and put huge stress on the grids.
Don't be so confident on the status of natural gas...all is not well on that front as I recently wrote.
That's a great article, by the way, peajay. _________________ "By the time individuals discover that remaining resources will not be adequate for the next generation, the next generation has already been born. " David Price
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2251 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Tue Apr 26, 2005 6:11 pm Post subject:
Yo, the big deal is most windows in all those big skyscrapers don't open yo, nor do the windows in a lot of modern hospitals yo, and your playstation won't work yo? or your microwave for the popcorn yo? or the t.v. that you watch while you eat that microwave popcorne yo? or your telephone to dial 911 when the thugs realize there is no electricity, and they are free to roam yo yo.
If the winters are colder, just slap on a few more sweaters. If the summers are hotter, just open a few more windows. What's the big dillyyo?
The problem is the grid fails when it's under the most pressure. When temps are 100F in the summer, or -20F in the winter. That's when everyone's got their airconditioner or heater cranked up...and when losing power is the most dangerous.
Traditionally in the northeast, natural gas has been extracted and stored during the summer, for use during the winter. But now everyone's got airconditioning. They're using the natural gas in the summer, and running the risk that there won't be enough for winter heating. The summer blackouts are bad enough, but winter blackouts could be disastrous.
Currently, we've escaped serious problems, because the mild weather means not as much natural gas is used up during the summer as might be expected. But that will change, with one hot summer or one cold winter.
never use air conditioning. and the oil and utility bill is so low every year. I like sweaters and never buy a vehicle with airconditioning. They make my nose stuffy. Its not really a problem yet. but it will be a problem when there is no heat.
folks dont really need the ait=rconditioning. but the heat that a problemo. Yo.
and once I bail out of the conventional house ill be off the grid entirely.
YO
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6976 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2005 7:42 am Post subject:
The blackout or “cliff event” prediction always seems to get the most discussion, but I think it obscures the gist of the argument.
Although Duncan called electricity the “quintessential end-use energy of industrial civilization”, IMO, the main point of the theory is less debatable:
The Olduvai theory is specifically defined as the ratio of world energy production and world population.
Variables in the US market are merely static in the overall picture. The increase in nat. gas generation added capacity and possibly vulnerability on the one hand - deregulation made generation/end use profitable and transmission not so profitable, hence less reliable the other hand.
He points out that since ‘79 numbers for per capita energy production are flat (I don’t know about ’04). But in that same period GDP has continued to increase - at least officially. I’m sure microprocessors have a big role in that.
It seems to me that increase in efficiency is actually a sign that we have already made the easy changes to cope with the flat energy/population ratio. If and when the ratio begins to decline, further increases in efficiency will be that much harder to achieve, if achievable at all.
Blackouts or not, that's when things start to get tough. _________________ Make a plan and work it:
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