How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
In some ways very contrarian, especially in regard of the dollar and commodity prices. But it seems only logical that with a global slowdown of the economy this is plausible...
Joined: Feb 03, 2005 Posts: 111 Location: Nowhere Fast
Posted: Sat Apr 30, 2005 10:50 am Post subject:
Great article. I think the rising interest rates in the US are going to pop the housing bubble. That along with high existing debt will slow down spending. The US will slip into recession and drag most of the world down with it. Oil demand will drop. Oil prices, at least for the short term, will collapse from current levels. Peak oil is not here yet and probably will not be until the next decade.
the idea that is missed there is the inevitable cliff ahead. so a crawl over the edge is the same as a running leap. the economics will never allow a left turn, it just isn't economical. not to mention that growth is the only thing maintaining a debt ridden global economy. we have to keep running to stay ahead of the debt collectors. _________________ remember-we don't inherit the earth from our parents, we lease it from our children
The article is very logical, however I don not see any hard landings in China atleast not this year. If due to bad credits and interest rate hikes bankrupticies start materialiazing the Chineese goverment may start pumping its currency reserves into the economy bailing out companies. So the scenario of hard landing that everybody was expecting for the last 12 months is rather unprobable however we may seem some slow in growth from 9,6% to lets say 7-6% and it wont be the chineese fault. On the other hand the US has been using all the asian credit to fuel excessive consumption and rampant house speculation so the money that the US gets from Asia is not put to productive use like researching new energy technology but is being spent by soccer moms via home equity loans so the situation is much more explosive in the States. Unlike americans chineese have overinvested their money in production capacity which may lead to some trouble of Hayekian type but the sky seems rather clear for China compared to the states. Eventual drop in commodity prices may come and can only come in the next 6-18 mounths from a US recession and an end to the spending spree which may lead to full blown depression. It will be a great time to buy some commodity related stocks after a sell off cause we all know this is a big long term bull market. I ve actually sold most of my commodity stocks oil & metals except for precious metals since march and bought gold & siver coins. The news of rising dollar are actually very bad for the americans so far in debt baecause they will have to pay it in more expensive dollars down the road, i seriously doubt that the coming depression will be deflationnary and any such event will be very short lived Just a few quotes from what seems to be the next Fed chairman Ben S Bernanke and his dismal helicopter supply of money theory:
"What has this got to do with monetary policy? Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation."
Oil prices, at least for the short term, will collapse from current levels. Peak oil is not here yet and probably will not be until the next decade.
I agree that oil prices will drop, but they will continue to spike each time the economy attempts to recover. I totally disagree with you that PO is not here. The world is pretty much at full production with a very limited surplus capacity. We're on a plateau. And around and around we go...
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