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EnviroEngr · Last edited by EnviroEngr on Wed Aug 18, 2004 12:39 pm; edited 3 times in total

tkn317071:

My sincerest apologies, I did -not- save your posts from before the move. If you can remember roughly what they were, can you please repost them here.

Thanks,
EE
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EVERYONE:

Please add all your questions, concerns or comments on to this thread.
Whenever possible, please indicate to whom you wish to address your question, concern or comment. Be as clear and plain as you can so I keep my interpretive errors as close to zero as possible when translating the submissions to the Authors/Experts.

Thanks.
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| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
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EnviroEngr

Question - How much of Pres. Jimmy Carter's policy?

rerere Guest writes:

In looking 'back', Mr. Carter:

1) Had a background in Physics
2) Understood power generation via his time on the nuke powered sub
3) Would have been shown Hubberts peak.

Can any expert, person who worked at that time w/ President Carter or perhaps President Carter himself be willing to 'spill the beans' on how much of the present situation was laid out for him when he was President....and if it was an option given, is this why he inacted the policies given?
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| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
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Whitecrab

nero · Posted: Wed Aug 18, 2004 9:00 pm Post subject:

I'd be interested in hearing Dr. Aleklett's comments on Francis Harper's (BP) presentation at the ASPO Berlin workshop.

In particular, I would be interested in hearing his comments on the aproach taken by Attanasi & Root in estimating future reserves growth for presently known fields.

Keith_McClary

Soft_Landing · Heavy Crude Joined: May 28, 2004 Posts: 377

I’m not sure who to direct this question toward. Darley or Heinburg perhaps?

How do you see higher oil prices affecting world economies?

In particular, it is often said that industrialized economies are less sensitive to oil price fluctuations. This seems to have been achieved because:

Industrialized economies have become more service orientated, and manufacturing jobs have been exported overseas.
The infrastructure required to support an industrialized way of life has been built, and now only needs to be maintained, which might require less oil.

In opposition, it is sometimes claimed that:

Industrialized economies do not use less manufactured product (quite the opposite), and therefore are just as sensitive to oil price rises in the form of increases in the price of imported goods.
The greater amount of modern infrastructure in the industrialized world may actually be a liability in a low energy world, as more energy is inefficiently devoted to maintaining historic infrastructure.

It seems to me that the displacement of manufacturing industries to low wage areas is particularly problematic. As wages decline relative to the cost of the final manufactured product, the cost of energy inputs as a percentage of total costs increases. This should mean that the total cost of producing the good should be more sensitive to the cost of energy (oil). It should follow that the cost of this manufactured product (to the importing developed world) should increase more than if the product was manufactured domestically (where labour would form a higher percentage of costs). This effect is similar to the comparison between the sensitivity of fuel cost between Europe and the USA. By having high non-oil cost (tax; for manufacturing goods -labour), total price is less sensitive to oil price.

Of course, if the cost of imported manufactured product increases, then demand for it (in the developed world) will decrease. This increase in the cost of imported manufacturing goods represents both a decrease in the real purchasing power of developed world countries, but also, should hurt the economies of exporters. Also, if imported manufactured product competes with a domestic equivalent, then that domestic equivalent should be at a relative advantage. Both these factors have the potential to insulate developed economies from the relative impact of higher energy prices.

It appears very difficult to cut through the multiple layers of effect with regards to how various economies might respond to higher oil prices. Again, how do you see higher world oil prices affecting world economies?

PhilBiker · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Jun 30, 2004 Posts: 1327

A Question for Mr. Simmons:

First of all thank you for being so bold to speak and write on this important subject. I attended the Hudson Institute's Saudi Arabia Conference in July and was very impressed with your presentation. I wanted to ask this question then, but did not since it seemed we were very pressed for time.

You are an Energy Investor who is aware of the problems of Peak Oil and Gas. What energy alternatives is your firm investing in?

If you are keeping your position in this matter as an industry secret I completely understand.

Thanks,
Phil

EnviroEngr · Posted: Tue Sep 14, 2004 5:29 pm Post subject: OilsNotWell

{NOTE to Self: OilsNotWell has primer level material in here; follow up and incorporate; EE}

Aaron-

Thanks for the suggestion, I will put some fresh input into these areas. Action, instead of observation changes things. Those who complain about something, when they have the power to change it....(a metaphor for society's approach to depletion, too, don't you think?)

I have a bit of an advanced mathematics and statistics bent (among other areas), so perhaps I could offer some insight. I had to dust off some of my books to refresh hyperbolic creaming curves and parabolic fractals and the like to see if the models made sense. Laherrere has the most advanced mathematical model out there it seems, but I like Deffeyes' greater understanding of production and reserve constraints. ASPO has the most extensive reserve, industry, and country data, though, too. [For example, Deffeyes was caught quite off guard with regards to Russia, as he considered the rise to 7mb/d quite an anomaly back in 2002.]

For the last month or so, I have immersed myself deeply into the depletion world.

I am fascinated by Dr. Bahktiari's depletion model (WOCAPS), as it reflects a real-world approach to the effect of politics, conflict, and price on supply depletion. Although some of us wish to dismiss economics (and economists in particular!) completely, it does have a pronounced effect on shape of the production curve (although the area under the curve remains the same), thus shifting peak back and forth a few years.

That is the one flaw in most of the other models that I have seen, particularly ASPO's. In addition, these non price-sensitive models have at least two fundamental underlying assumption that can be proved false:

1) Maximal production is assumed whenever possible
2) Alternative sources and transitional fuel transfer that occur as prices rise is not reflected.

These two assumptions can easily shown to be false by examining 1) Saudi Arabia's role in the last 30 years and for 2) The drastic decline in production following 1979 price shocks. While 1) will not hold true forever, and in fact, I think it's pretty much been acknowledged that NOW everybody is producing flat out. [Because of the special status of SA, and the large disagreement in even the true amounts of past production, let alone current production, I wouldn't give a whole lot of credence to the fact that they may have extra capacity. There is lot to protect in those production capacity numbers. I wouldn't even be surprised if SA declared a surplus, then cut production a bit. In fact, they've already done the first part. They have to give a reason for cutting back production, because otherwise they'd have to admit that 9.5 or 9.3 or exactly whatever it is mb/d is surge capicity, not sustained capacity. A look at their production pattern from 2003 suggested this to me...]. But I could be wrong on this point, and in fact, hope that I am.

I was impressed by APSO's attempt to study a real-world historical example of depletion with whale-oil depletion in the 1800's (although it scarcely mentioned the monumental beginning of hydrocarbon extraction that occurred, interestingly enough, just as the source of whale oil was being depleted out of existence.) It did, however, give an indication that there would be a cap to price increases - because it would just get too expensive for most people.

If you extrapolate that conclusion to hydrocarbon depletion one could assume that oil will be priced out of reach for many in order to manage diminishing production. In other words, the wealthy and powerful will still have and use their oil, and more and more of us won't. I fancifully imagine a world (for the U.S. at least) where one would have to get a permit for hydrocarbon burning, or be specially authorized for such use! Unlawful hydrocarbon burning or wastage would be criminally prosecuted of course....

On a side note, Dr. Bakhtiari seems to be an amazing man - humanist, philosopher, scientist, well-read and spoken, and pragmatic - almost mystical. I'm thinking of subscribing to his "Letter from Tehran." I worry about his country in light of what may seem to him as the looming militaristic U.S. policy and the decades-long interference there.

Back to the point:

The thing about this forum is that we are all (from what I can tell) just armchair quarterbacks on this issue. We are the consumers. We are neither high-level policy analysts, nor oil company engineers. We are not intelligence agents, nor energy scientists. We are average everyday people, yet those whose lives are about to be forever changed. I have no doubt in my mind that high-level types lurk here for the latest thoughts and trends, but they do not post nor reveal their positions. The truly wealthy and powerful already have their high-priced analysts and inside contacts, we have this forum.

Another point:

Seeing the ASPO predicted peak move from 2010, to 2008, to 2006 is definitely not a good sign.

I equate it with the forecasting of Hurricane Ivan, which I have been watching in earnest for a week. The National Hurricane Center keeps updating their models with ever-moving U.S. landfall predictions westward of Florida...and have been doing so even before it approached Venezuela. The models, though, do get become more accurate, the closer Ivan gets to the U.S...and soon we will see how right they are. The consequences for that prediction being wrong are tragic as well, but "pretty soon" it can be seen to be "pretty close" to correct. The analogy holds for oil as well.

What I would like to see in depletion analyses is a fresh meta-analysis of all current depletion curve predictions and scenarios, which to my knowledge hasn't been done before. This would probably give a more accurate prediction (throwing out outliers, of course....like the pie-in-the-sky one from the USGS). Picking just one you "believe in" doesn't seem to get the best picture.
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| Whose reality is this anyway!? |
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(-------< Temet Nosce >-------)
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BabyHuey · Guest

I remember reading a post on the Dieoff_QA list, something to the effect that Richard Duncan had prepared an update to his Olduvai timetable, but he wasn't going to release the information publicly until after the election (evidently the exact timing depended on who won the election).

Anyway, I'm anxious to read Duncan's update, but I don't see it posted anywhere. Could somebody please email him, or Jay Hanson, and jog their memory, if need be?

I don't do email. I'm so sick of spam, I just don't. I've let all my mailing list registrations lapse, because I can't re-register without email. So I'm strictly a lurker everywhere but here, so I need someone elese to get this message to Dr. Duncan. Thanks.

oowolf

This is an FTW type question. I just finished "Crossing the Rubicon". Being a rube, most of the presentation is beyond my ken. However, these FTW folks have a good record for prediction. As I understand it, Ruppert is predicting "engineered recession" by next fall. Does this mean the elites believe peak is imminent? Assuming the elites can cope, and I'm not sure they can after reading Jay Hanson's excellent piece on "Maximum Power Principle", does anyone have info or insight into actual elite plans for OUR future. Do they have plans for their OWN survival? Lifeboat building, secret retreats, etc.? I've seen the dismal psych analysis of Shrub-how about the rest of the crowd? Do these people possess even a shred of humanity? Can they be expected to stand their posts from some sense of duty-like good Captain Smith-or will they bunker-up like der fuehrer, issuing increasingly irrational orders to the end? These are important questions since they are the ones with the finger on the button, right?

jen_in_WA · Coal Joined: Jan 15, 2005 Posts: 1

I have no freakin' idea how to use this forum....it is convoluted, disjointed, and just plain goofy.....it would be nice if someone were ever in the chat room so that a real dialog could be had .......
In any case, the question raise about how the 'experts' are "preparing" for our coming global disaster piques my curiosity and I would appreciate knowing how to see the freakin' answer!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

EnviroEngr · Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2005 10:13 pm Post subject: Getting started

Cool Hand Linc · Posted: Thu Feb 24, 2005 5:13 am Post subject: yes and

So many of the questions can be answered by reading before you post. Read some before you post.
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Peace out!

Cool Hand Linc Cool

GD · Posted: Tue Apr 26, 2005 6:38 am Post subject:

I would like to ask the experts if they believe that the international simultaneous policy (ISPO) could help "manage" Peak Oil (given that the policy is not fixed yet and experts / NGO's are wanted for input - more detail about ISPO here).
We have already a global movement for climate change action, a smaller but growing movement for oil depletion awareness (which has huge potential IMO).
Should we be influencing / adopting ISPO too?

(Chomsky has already said it is worth while, so I think this should go to the other experts, starting with Julian Darley).
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JackatCC · Coal Joined: Sep 14, 2005 Posts: 1

I become involved in discussions regarding the future of oil production, but I find myself handicapped by a basic lack of knowlege on how you get the stuff out of the well. As an engineer I know that pumps can produce very high discharge pressures, but very limited suction. So what technique is used to extract oil from thousands of feet down. I imagine that we depend to some extent on the reservoir pressure forcing the oil part of the way, but what then? Submersible pumps sent down the well? Help please.
Jack