Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2638 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Wed Jan 11, 2006 2:42 am Post subject: [Energy Policy] Planning For the Peak
Planning For the Peak
Quote:
You will never wake to the headline, "World Runs Out of Oil."
Rather, global oil production will rise, reach one or more peaks, and decline. Well before production declines to very low levels, the peak will mark a point of no return that will be a watershed in the economic history of the 21st century. For the first time, industrial economies will be forced to a lower-quality energy source. And this decline will affect every aspect of modern life.
This creates an additional difficulty for the inevitable transition away from oil. Alternative fuels can generate an energy surplus large enough to power the U.S. and world economies, but to do so the infrastructure for the alternative fuel needs to be larger than the current oil infrastructure. If 1 Btu (British thermal unit) of oil could be used to extract 50 Btu of new oil from the ground (which was the ratio at the U.S. peak), most alternatives currently produce 2-10 Btu per Btu invested. The infrastructure for such alternatives would need to be five to twenty-five times larger than the current oil infrastructure.
Joined: Dec 16, 2004 Posts: 706 Location: Santa Monica, CA
Posted: Wed Jan 11, 2006 10:40 am Post subject: Re: [Energy Policy] Planning For the Peak
Robert K. Kaufman wrote:
This creates an additional difficulty for the inevitable transition away from oil. Alternative fuels can generate an energy surplus large enough to power the U.S. and world economies, but to do so the infrastructure for the alternative fuel needs to be larger than the current oil infrastructure. If 1 Btu (British thermal unit) of oil could be used to extract 50 Btu of new oil from the ground (which was the ratio at the U.S. peak), most alternatives currently produce 2-10 Btu per Btu invested. The infrastructure for such alternatives would need to be five to twenty-five times larger than the current oil infrastructure.
That is a very sobering observation.
I would like to add that in a time of scarcity in oil or energy in general, building that five to twenty-five times larger infrastructure becomes less affordable, not more (as often stated by economists). High oil prices make commodities such as steel rise in price, almost in parallel. That plus other energy input costs will make low EROEI less profitable; thus negating some or all of the market incentive to supply the demand. So as the price of energy increases and available alternative energy decreases in EROEI, the market will have less of an incentive to extract alternative/low EROEI energy.
When you add that depressing factor to the issue of scale, as noted by Kaufman, it is not so easy to see a supply solution. All the solutions are on the demand side. For North America, that means rebuilding cities away from sprawl and car dependency. That's not an easy task but there is no other choice except civilization collapse.
Posted: Wed Jan 11, 2006 2:35 pm Post subject: Re: [Energy Policy] Planning For the Peak
Why are we "planning for the Peak" when its supposedly already happened? Seems like now that the Peak has arrived, we should just take cover in our bomb shelters and eat our canned and horded food supply until enough people die off over the next few months so that us Peakers can emerge, owners of the universe?
Strange thing though, I can still get fresh vegetables and fruit at my local supermarket, which seems strange what with Peak having arrived and deprived tractors of fuel to run, and for some reason the gas company keeps shipping me natural gas to burn in my house, and darned if I didn't horde another 55 gal drum of gasoline the other day when no one was looking and no one tried to shoot me and take it away for their own uses as I drove away. This post-Peak era sure doesn't look like its been described so far.
Joined: Oct 23, 2005 Posts: 1791 Location: East of Eden
Posted: Wed Jan 11, 2006 3:28 pm Post subject: Re: [Energy Policy] Planning For the Peak
ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
Why are we "planning for the Peak" when its supposedly already happened? Seems like now that the Peak has arrived, we should just take cover in our bomb shelters and eat our canned and horded food supply until enough people die off over the next few months so that us Peakers can emerge, owners of the universe?
Strange thing though, I can still get fresh vegetables and fruit at my local supermarket, which seems strange what with Peak having arrived and deprived tractors of fuel to run, and for some reason the gas company keeps shipping me natural gas to burn in my house, and darned if I didn't horde another 55 gal drum of gasoline the other day when no one was looking and no one tried to shoot me and take it away for their own uses as I drove away. This post-Peak era sure doesn't look like its been described so far.
TS hasn't HTF yet.
Wait. _________________ "If a path to the better there be, it begins with a full look at the worst." — Thomas Hardy
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2638 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2006 3:42 pm Post subject: Re: [Energy Policy] Planning For the Peak
This was just posted at a New Zealand Peak Oil site:
Quote:
Comprehensive Energy Bill to Radically Reduce Hawaii's Oil Dependence
Snowmass, Colo., 12 January 2006-Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), a Colorado-based
energy and resources think tank, announced today that the State of Hawaii is
launching a comprehensive and integrated approach to reducing oil dependence,
Republican Governor Linda Lingle's "Energy for Tomorrow" bill. Energy is not
a partisan issue-majority Democrats offered their own energy package containing
similar themes. In the absence of federal leadership, however, states will be the
laboratories for change and policy innovation on energy, with Hawaii poised to be in
the forefront of state leadership.
RMI's 2004 study, Winning the Oil Endgame, a ground-breaking business-lead strategy
for ending U.S. oil dependence, detailed a comprehensive list of policy actions that
would accelerate society's adoption of efficient technologies and biofuels, and move
America into a post-oil era. The Governor's "Energy for Tomorrow" bill is a
comprehensive energy policy package that incorporates many of RMI's policy
recommendations, and has the potential to transform Hawaii-the most oil-dependent
state in the nation and the one with the highest energy costs-into a state that will
lead the nation with a low-cost, sustainable, locally-produced, and secure energy
system. The Office of the Governor announced the bill separately Thursday.
"This bill embraces Winning the Oil Endgame's strategy to reduce oil dependence
through efficiency, renewables, and biofuels while strengthening the economy through
agricultural revitalization," said Kyle Datta, RMI Senior Director of Research &
Consulting, who coauthored the report. "We knew that energy leadership had to
come from the state-level, but Hawaii, with the highest energy prices, a 90 percent
dependence on oil for energy, and few traditional energy options, could become a test
lab for redesigning our entire nation's energy architecture on a state-by-state
basis."
According to Datta, who has worked on dozens of energy policy initiatives and
efficiency projects in Hawaii, the state has never seen such a broad-ranging and
comprehensive suite of policies aimed at ending the state's addiction to oil. The
increase in oil prices since 2002, has, he said, cost the state over $1 billion, and
increased energy expenses ~$1,850/household. While Hawaii has no fossil fuel
resources, it has the full portfolio of renewable energy resources. RMI will be
working with the State of Hawaii to provide the energy strategy and implementation
plan to wean the state off its oil addiction.
Innovative Policies
The "Energy for Tomorrow" bill establishes a bold and strategic energy policy
framework of measures to encourage and support market-based development of reliable,
cost-effective, and self-reliant energy systems. The bill's five major components
include:
o "Savings through Efficiency,"
o "Independence through Renewable Energy,"
o "Fuels through Farming,"
o "Security through Technology," and
o "Empowering Hawaii's Consumers."
Four of the bill's elements stand out as important innovations of national
significance.
First, "Savings through Efficiency" calls for the creation of a Public
Benefits Charge that will be used to directly fund efficiency and distributed
renewable energy through an independent third party. The approach is based on the
State of Vermont's efficiency utility, Efficiency Vermont, which was created to
implement energy efficiency services and programs in an unbiased, independent,
rigorously-accountable, and evenly-applied manner. Today, Efficiency Vermont has
achieved twice the national average in energy savings of other states' efficiency
programs, while Hawaii currently achieves roughly half the national average.
Second, "Independence through Renewable Energy" contains provisions that
strengthen Hawaii's renewable portfolio standard, setting it at 20 percent and
explicitly tasking the Public Utilities' Commission with defining a methodology for
valuing the long-run benefits of renewable power in reducing fossil fuel risk. The
bill also calls for sharing the fossil fuel risk between the utility and its
ratepayers.
Third, the centerpiece of "Fuels through Farmings" is a 20 percent Renewable
Fuels Standard, backed with exemptions from the state fuels excise tax and state
preferences for biofuels procurement.
Finally, this energy bill, Mr. Datta noted, could lead the 50th state to become a
world leader in hydrogen energy technology. It calls for the immediate establishment
of a world-class renewable hydrogen program.
The Democratic majority package mirrors the call for state leadership in energy
efficiency by requiring LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) silver
certification, and providing significant funding for energy efficiency in state
buildings and photovoltaics in schools. The critical innovation is the Pay As You
Save (PAYS) pilot program that provides a revolving fund to finance solar water
heating for low-income residents that is paid back through energy savings.
Triple Bottom Line
This bill, Mr. Datta noted, would be good for Hawaiians, good the environment, and
good for business. Implementation of all the conservation, renewable energy, and
alternative transportation fuels components of this package, he said, are expected by
the year 2020 to displace 110.5 million barrels of imported crude oil-saving Hawaii's
consumers $6.32 billion; and avoiding 48.9 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions.
The Energy for Tomorrow bill also points the way to the development of the Hawaiian
biofuels industry and robust agricultural sector. A 2003 study by Stillwater
Associates projected that Hawaii has a ethanol industry capable of producing 90
million gallons a year, which "could add as much as $300 million to Hawaii's
economy in direct and indirect value." RMI's Winning the Oil Endgame estimated
that moving the United States off oil could stimulate a 750,000-job biofuels industry
worth tens of billions of dollars.
"This really represents sweeping change for Hawaii, and it's an affirmation of
the hard work we put into Winning the Oil Endgame," said Datta. "Our energy
future is choice, not fate. This bill means Hawaii will define its energy destiny.
RMI is committed to working with the State of Hawaii to develop and implement a
forward looking energy strategy."
For more information, please contact Kyle Datta at 808-329-4360 at kdatta@rmi.org
Cameron Burns (cameron@rmi.org), 970 927-3851 or Cory Lowe (clowe@rmi.org), 970
927-3851. You can also visit RMI's website at http://www.rmi.org.
About RMI: Rocky Mountain Institute is a twenty-four-year-old, independent,
nonpartisan, entrepreneurial, nonprofit organization. Its mission is to foster the
efficient and restorative use of resources to make the world secure, just,
profitable, and life-sustaining. RMI's nearly fifty staff members show businesses,
communities, individuals, and governments how to meet their goals in ways that create
more wealth and protect the environment simultaneously-often through advanced
resource efficiency. For more on our work, please visit our main website at
http://www.rmi.org, or go to our Media Materials section at
http://www.rmi.org/sitepages/pid65.php.
In response to the increasing demand for timely information on what Rocky Mountain
Institute is doing, we've created this Media List, to which we send periodic email
updates. This message was sent to you because you are listed in Rocky Mountain
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parties.
Rocky Mountain Institute is a twenty-four-year-old independent entrepreneurial
nonprofit organization. Its mission is to foster the efficient and restorative use of
resources to make the world secure, just, profitable, and life-sustaining. RMI's
nearly fifty staff members show businesses, communities, individuals, and governments
how to meet their goals in ways that create more wealth and protect the environment
simultaneously-often through advanced resource efficiency. For more on our work,
please visit our main website at http://www.rmi.org.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2638 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2006 7:09 am Post subject: Re: [Energy Policy] Planning For the Peak
What they don't want you to know about the coming oil crisis
Quote:
Soaring fuel prices, rumours of winter power cuts, panic over the gas supply from Russia, abrupt changes to forecasts of crude output... Is something sinister going on? Yes, says former oil man Jeremy Leggett, and it's time to face the fact that the supplies we so depend on are going to run out.
Smith sums all the reported capacities in the Middle East Five and finds that if the rate of demand growth continues at 1.5 per cent they will fail to meet global demand by as soon as 2011. If it rises to 2.5 per cent the demand gap appears in 2008. If it is 3.5 per cent - the rates in China and the US of late - the gap is already here.
The good news is that it will be possible to replace oil, gas and coal completely with a plentiful supply of renewable energy, and faster than most people think. Shell employs roomfuls of clever people just to think about the future. They are called scenario planners. In their 2001 book of scenarios, Shell's planners mention that renewable energy holds the potential to power a future world populated with 10 billion people, and do so with ease.
Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2006 10:28 am Post subject: Re: [Energy Policy] Planning For the Peak
The plan above for Hawaii energy independence seems interesting but very vague to me. Not a word about reducing car traffic.
I visited Hawaii, Big Island, about 3 or 4 years ago. I think the majority of vehicles there were SUVs, gas guzzlers. There was not one bus line on the whole island - no public transport (of course school buses). For energy cost - read SUV transport, electricity, and jet fuel.
Very balmy climate, no need for indoor heating. I do not think the summer heat get bad either - so this an energy cost they do not have. They really already should use less energy than most places.
Sustaining our early 21st-century global civilisation now depends on shifting to a renewable energy powered, re-use/recycle economy with a diversified transport system. Business as usual - Plan A - cannot take us where we want to go. It is time for Plan B, time to build a new economy.
Among the new sources of energy - wind, solar cells, solar thermal, geothermal, small-scale hydro and biomass - wind is developing fastest, hinting at what the new energy economy will look like.
These are corporation which don’t want to lose their ability to continue to profit from the human misery caused by nuclear and fossil fuels. The sun, the wind, the tides, and geothermal energy are here in abundance for all the world’s people and they are free. We already have the technology to harness the bounty of the earth. And we know how to store it when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow, by using hydrogen fuel cells. It is clearly not beyond our financial means, as argued by the corporate supporters of toxic fuel industriesparticularly when you compare the costs of clean, safe energy to the hundreds of billions of dollars spent annually to subsidize fossil and nuclear fuels. Not to mention the cost of war to protect those poisonous energy sources.
So why don't we have it now? Why don't we have a ten-year crash program to achieve a nuclear, fossil-free, and biomass-free energy transition? Because of the forces that insist on peddling their polluting and proliferating sources of energy--their "cash cows".
Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat, and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, a New York Democrat, have introduced legislation that would create a new agency within the U.S. Department of Energy modeled after the Department of Defense's research agency, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. The bill would authorize a total of $9 billion in funding for fiscal years 2007 through 2011 for the new agency to develop research to quickly move "cutting edge" energy-efficiency technologies into the marketplace.
Joined: Dec 03, 2005 Posts: 657 Location: Vancouver, BC
Posted: Sat Jan 28, 2006 11:16 pm Post subject: Re: [Energy Policy] Planning For the Peak
Graeme
Quote:
Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat, and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, a New York Democrat, have introduced legislation that would create a new agency within the U.S. Department of Energy modeled after the Department of Defense's research agency, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. The bill would authorize a total of $9 billion in funding for fiscal years 2007 through 2011 for the new agency to develop research to quickly move "cutting edge" energy-efficiency technologies into the marketplace.
This is great! Maybe they should just repurpose NASA instead of building a whole new agency. _________________ "Ninety percent of everything is crap."
-Theodore Sturgeon
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