Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
If, like me, you're a complete dumbster when it comes to Physics or Maths, then 99% of this is going to sail right over your head. Worth reading for the numerous summaries and conclusions though (which are thankfully in plain English).
Staniford's overall take is that we're in for a long, slow economic 'squeeze', which he optimistically sees as being more than manageable - at least in the short term.
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2006 6:49 am Post subject: Re: Extrapolating World Production
untothislast wrote:
Staniford's overall take is that we're in for a long, slow economic 'squeeze', which he optimistically sees as being more than manageable - at least in the short term.
I would agree, if the debt situation wasn't what it is. If you're in debt up to your eyebrows, a little squeeze is all that you need for everything to fall apart.
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2006 7:22 am Post subject: Re: Extrapolating World Production
I've read thousands of pages of this stuff over the last two and half years as a professor of writing and Lit. concerned about the oil situation. I've come to the following conclusion:
It's all a bunch of pretentious babble. No one knows a goddamn thing about what's going to happen, near term or short term. _________________ "By the time individuals discover that remaining resources will not be adequate for the next generation, the next generation has already been born. " David Price
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2006 7:52 am Post subject: Re: Extrapolating World Production
Having suffered the recession that a mere 4%/yr decline in oil supply engendered, I can say that it is neither just a squeeze, nor can any economy endure it as a continuing condition.
In addition, the fact that the Western nations are now carrying massive endebtedness in a wide range of forms will predictably accelerate the rate of economic decline.
In the early '80s, with UK interest rates peaking at 25%, anyone carrying heavy debt was simply out of business, including those who thought they had tangible assets like housing . . .
regards,
Backstop _________________ "The best of conservation . . . is written not with a pen but with an axe."
(from "A Sand County Almanac" by Aldo Leopold, 1948.
Joined: Oct 22, 2005 Posts: 705 Location: European Capital of Kulcha 2008
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2006 8:00 am Post subject: Re: Extrapolating World Production
Killjoy, I think there is definitely some value in trying to establish a predictive model. One of the difficulties though, is how you go about factoring in all sorts of unforeseen world events, timelines, unverifiable statements and reports - each of which have their own effect on how much oil we think we have; how much is left to discover - and how fast we're actually using it. Unfortunately, as I think you're suggesting, the figures are infinitely malleable and open to interpretation.
My interest is less in the actual depletion and consumption of the resource, than in the way society is likely to react to the eventual realisation, that all expectations of continuing prosperity are mortgaged to
a crumbling economic infrastructure based on the availability of relatively cheap energy supplies.
Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2006 5:47 pm Post subject: Re: Extrapolating World Production
killJOY wrote:
I've read thousands of pages of this stuff over the last two and half years as a professor of writing and Lit. concerned about the oil situation. I've come to the following conclusion:
It's all a bunch of pretentious babble. No one knows a goddamn thing about what's going to happen, near term or short term.
I second that opinion. No one knows what the future holds. Prognosticators are proven wrong time after time after time. We are living in a technological boom where anything can happen.
It makes sense to look at the (incomplete and inadequate) data and make a few predictive guesses and perhaps sound preliminary warning bells. But this is not a subject that deals in certainties.
I wouldn't be a bit surprised to read one day that petroleum microbial work has developed a method to squeeze much more out of existing wells (as just one example). I wouldn't be a bit surprised to read about a thin film solar panel that can be manufactured cheaply and produce electron flow at relatively very high efficiencies.
But oil and energy is fundamental to the economy and energy security and the power derived from the control of energy supplies essentially drives the US military industrial complex so peak oil remains an enormously interesting subject. _________________ "May you live in interesting times"
It seems to indicate that even a small decrease in the oil consumption per capita will induce a recession. If no alternatives are put in place, the slow squeeze will be enough to depress the economy for years. _________________ ______________________________________
http://GraphOilogy.blogspot.com
Posted: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:10 am Post subject: Re: Extrapolating World Production
Khebab -
A slow squeeze that puts the global economy into recession, crushes the over-extended, and then pulls back to growth is one thing.
One where investors become aware that oil is not coming back to affordable prices is an entirely different prospect.
That confidence of near-term recovery is surely critical to postponing a global slump ?
Unless of course either Hirsche is greatly mistaken about a 20 yr transition requirement with normal economic growth,
or we are greatly mistaken to project a 4% /yr decline of supply post peak.
One of these days Americans are going to realize why they desperately need global co-operation to address the global problems.
Not a pleasant negotiating position . . . .
Regards,
Backstop _________________ "The best of conservation . . . is written not with a pen but with an axe."
(from "A Sand County Almanac" by Aldo Leopold, 1948.
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
