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TITAN
Heavy Crude
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Joined: May 25, 2005
Posts: 488
Location: New Northwest Union
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 Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 2:26 pm Post subject: Re-directing my worries (focus)... |
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I have decided that although peak oil is happening, it is not going to be the most important or largest near-term threat. I think that economic retreat and, much more importantly, climate change are going to have a far greater impact on the inhabitants of this planet. Both will prolong the plateau of oil production that we are currently at...
Anyone know a good forum, with people like this one has, on climate change? Please don't reccommend anything like the absolutely horrid; curevents.com...
oh yeah, here is a very interesting news story and the reason for this post:
Arctic sea ice fails to re-form AGAIN
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“You can fool some of the people all the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on.” George W. Bush |
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Shadizar
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jul 24, 2005
Posts: 181
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| Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 3:35 pm Post subject: Re: Re-directing my worries (focus)... |
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Best of luck to you Titan. I happen to believe the two problems are intertwined and will only be solved together, but to overcome the challenges of either will be very difficult.
The more people involved, the better. I don't know of such a site though, sorry.
-Shadizar |
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Sys1
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Feb 25, 2005
Posts: 606
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| Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 4:01 pm Post subject: Re: Re-directing my worries (focus)... |
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About positive feedbacks that nature will not fail to offer us, i've read something about the energy absorbed by ice while melting to water. If you take a glass of water with ice during a summer day, you'll witness ice melting while water temperature staying still... until glass contains just water, leading in the end to an increase in temperature of it.
Something similar will occur at a much larger scale, making me think that we litteraly going to hell. We are screwed. Peak oil&gas, retirement, global warming... Good luck to all those childrens i see as a teacher... |
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Jake
Intermediate Crude
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Joined: Feb 25, 2005
Posts: 772
Location: Luton, England
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| Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 4:19 pm Post subject: Re: Re-directing my worries (focus)... |
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| Quote: | | I have decided that although peak oil is happening, it is not going to be the most important or largest near-term threat. |
I've started to wonder about this too, its a real downer as not much can be done at all on a personal level to prepare. In fact, it is so unpredictable that individual survival is probably impossible without massive system driven mitigation, and whilst peak oil seems to be happening.
There is one site (I think linked to this) about global dimming. Not much goes on there though. |
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Colorado-Valley
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Aug 16, 2004
Posts: 729
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| Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 4:21 pm Post subject: Re: Re-directing my worries (focus)... |
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I've come around to the theory that peak oil may not technically ever happen. War, economic depression and pandemic may keep us from ever reaching the maximum worldwide peak.
Not that it really matters ... |
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Leanan
News Editor
Joined: May 20, 2004
Posts: 4490
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| Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 4:54 pm Post subject: Re: Re-directing my worries (focus)... |
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I don't know if there are any sites like this one for global warming. There are a lot of weather sites, but they tend to be about meteorology in general, and are often a lot more scientific than this site is.
Here are a couple you might want to check out:
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/
http://www.realclimate.org/
You might also consider The Oil Drum, which is a peak oil blog that covers global warming quite a bit. Or even the environment forum here.
Peak oil is a huge, complex problem, but global warming dwarfs it. I think that's why there aren't more sites devoted to it. What can you really do about global warming? Even if you miniaturize your carbon footprint, a billion Chinese are busy enlarging theirs.
And the results are so unpredictable. Moving away from the coasts is probably a good idea...but where do you move to? The climate is becoming so unpredictable, even in areas not directly affected by hurricanes. |
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PolestaR
Light Sweet Crude
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Joined: Jun 21, 2005
Posts: 1047
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| Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 6:01 pm Post subject: Re: Re-directing my worries (focus)... |
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Unless Mount Satan opens up and spews some environmental goodness on more than 10% of the world then things will go on "business as usual". The chances of something globally environmentally cataclysmic happening are slim for the next 100 years in the least, still a chance of course (what do I know I'm just a farm boy programmer).
Anyhow it is interesting to wonder what is going to be the catalyst for crap hitting the fan, my shortest term estimations are :-
1) War in Iran leading to World War 3 (I hope they use nukes as EMPs)
2) The US (and sheep) economy collapsing due to housing collapse (which is just the kickstart this failing thing needs). This is sort of unlikely since the government controls all the key indicators and can lie to everyone as they already are. Still a possibility (has been predicted for at least 16 years now so might be even longer wait).
3) Once the gap between supply and demand of oil becomes greater and the reserves which are being used to balance any equations run out. This will lead to fuel rosters initially giving a warning sign.
Governments aren't proactive about things like energy. Everyone knows they REACT to situations. So for old Bushy and others to be saying there are problems with oil means it really is a lot worse than they are letting on.
A cliche, things sure are going to be interesting this year. |
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Aqua
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jun 23, 2004
Posts: 171
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| Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 6:16 pm Post subject: Re: Re-directing my worries (focus)... |
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| Colorado-Valley wrote: | I've come around to the theory that peak oil may not technically ever happen. War, economic depression and pandemic may keep us from ever reaching the maximum worldwide peak.
Not that it really matters ... |
I’ve come to the same conclusion myself, in the end it all boils down to the incompatibility of endless growth on a finite planet with finite resources and ever expanding population encouraged to look for ever higher standards of living with strong undercurrents of exploitation/competition instead of co-operation. Sooner or later something has to give and the signs are screaming all over the place, its only a matter of time. What will be the tipping point, who knows but in the end does it really matter. |
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TheTurtle
Fission
Joined: May 14, 2005
Posts: 2125
Location: Along the banks of the muddy Mississippi
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| Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 6:52 pm Post subject: Re: Re-directing my worries (focus)... |
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| PolestaR wrote: | | Unless Mount Satan opens up and spews some environmental goodness on more than 10% of the world then things will go on "business as usual". The chances of something globally environmentally cataclysmic happening are slim for the next 100 years in the least, still a chance of course (what do I know I'm just a farm boy programmer). |
 I'd wager that you are totally wrong in your assessment.
But it will be very difficult to collect my winnings when you are sitting under 300 feet of ice a few years hence. 
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“Humankind has not woven the web of life. We are but one thread within it. Whatever we do to the web, we do to ourselves.” (Ted Perry) |
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Leanan
News Editor
Joined: May 20, 2004
Posts: 4490
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| Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 7:18 pm Post subject: Re: Re-directing my worries (focus)... |
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| Quote: | | The chances of something globally environmentally cataclysmic happening are slim for the next 100 years in the least |
That was the conventional wisdom as recently as a year ago. But now it looks like global warming is now. It's increasing Atlantic hurricanes. It's causing droughts in some areas, floods in others. Polar bears are starving due to lack of ice.
There's a growing consensus that we are reaching a tipping point, and that drastic climate change will happen a lot faster than we ever imagined. NASA is now sounding the alarm (though they had to fire some political hacks first). Jim Hansen thinks the sea level rise will be a problem "soon." He thinks sea level could rise 80 feet. Even a fraction of that would drown many major U.S. cities. |
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PolestaR
Light Sweet Crude
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Joined: Jun 21, 2005
Posts: 1047
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| Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 9:05 pm Post subject: Re: Re-directing my worries (focus)... |
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| Leanan wrote: | | Quote: | | The chances of something globally environmentally cataclysmic happening are slim for the next 100 years in the least |
That was the conventional wisdom as recently as a year ago. But now it looks like global warming is now. It's increasing Atlantic hurricanes. It's causing droughts in some areas, floods in others. Polar bears are starving due to lack of ice.
There's a growing consensus that we are reaching a tipping point, and that drastic climate change will happen a lot faster than we ever imagined. NASA is now sounding the alarm (though they had to fire some political hacks first). Jim Hansen thinks the sea level rise will be a problem "soon." He thinks sea level could rise 80 feet. Even a fraction of that would drown many major U.S. cities. |
Don't worry about "soon", scientists version of "soon" is like 50-100 years. I have also researched into global warming and yes it is affecting us but not in any way which will stop "business as usual". If you think global warming or some other environmental aspect is going to bring us down first I think you need to take a look at the URL of this site. You're not at greenpeace [SAVE TEH WAILZ].
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TommyJefferson
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Aug 19, 2004
Posts: 1682
Location: Republic of Texas
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| Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 9:08 pm Post subject: Re: Re-directing my worries (focus)... |
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| PolestaR wrote: | | Governments aren't proactive about things like energy. |
I think the United State government is.
What country is building permanent military bases atop 2 Trillion dollars worth of petroleum reserves?
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Conform . Consume . Obey . |
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loghomebuilder
Tar Sands
Joined: Mar 12, 2006
Posts: 26
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| Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 9:18 pm Post subject: Re: Re-directing my worries (focus)... |
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| TITAN wrote: | I have decided that although peak oil is happening, it is not going to be the most important or largest near-term threat. I think that economic retreat and, much more importantly, climate change are going to have a far greater impact on the inhabitants of this planet. Both will prolong the plateau of oil production that we are currently at...
Anyone know a good forum, with people like this one has, on climate change? Please don't reccommend anything like the absolutely horrid; curevents.com...
oh yeah, here is a very interesting news story and the reason for this post:
Arctic sea ice fails to re-form AGAIN |
From a stanpoint of "what is the fate of planet earth"-of course this is dependent upon your eschataological views-global warming is of course a bigger issue since it affects our ability to produce food. As for its likelyhood to shut down the world economy within the next 5 to 15 years I highly doubt this will happen.
Here is a thought. Jevron's paradox applied on a global scale. Below is why I ABSOLUTELY believe that there will be no soft landing. We absolutely are headed for mass pandemonium. It makes NO difference whether the U.S. decides to reduce its carbon footprint. It is completly irrelevent whether we cut oil consumption by even 50% or more. Why you might ask? Simple. Even if we were to do such with all possible haste, like say by next year. All that would happen is that Chindia would pick up the now available oil and grow their already explosive economies at even faster rates.
According to Jeavron's Paradox in trying to solve the problem we often make things worse. So for those living in North America all we would do is impoverish ourselves in NOT using the oil currently available when it is cheap. We are going to hit peak oil like blind lady screaming along in her grandson's Ferrari going 200 miles an hour of the edge of the Grand Canyon. Why, because even if we don't use the oil someone else will. What we should be doing is using ALL the oil we can possibly get our hands on NOW. What should we being doing with that oil? Preparing and switching our society to make the transition. BUT since we WON'T do that-well we've got the blind Grandmother syndrome about to hit overdrive.
So in my opinion, while global warming is in the long term a more important issue, Peak Oil absolutely and unequivocably trumps global warming as a short term issue. |
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PolestaR
Light Sweet Crude
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Joined: Jun 21, 2005
Posts: 1047
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| Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 9:18 pm Post subject: Re: Re-directing my worries (focus)... |
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| TommyJefferson wrote: | | PolestaR wrote: | | Governments aren't proactive about things like energy. |
I think the United State government is.
What country is building permanent military bases atop 2 Trillion dollars worth of petroleum reserves? |
I take your point and add to it two hints of alternatives. Whoever came up with this plan though is only thinking short term (5 years), and some would say its a stupid plan to begin with.
I'd define proactive when it comes to energy as being ways to reduce consumption, finding multiple reliable streams of energy, etc. Not continuing to feed the 2 tonne monster that is the american SUV black gold culture.
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Bringing sexy back..... to doom |
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TITAN
Heavy Crude
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Joined: May 25, 2005
Posts: 488
Location: New Northwest Union
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| Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 10:46 pm Post subject: Re: Re-directing my worries (focus)... |
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| Leanan wrote: | | Quote: | | The chances of something globally environmentally cataclysmic happening are slim for the next 100 years in the least |
That was the conventional wisdom as recently as a year ago. But now it looks like global warming is now. It's increasing Atlantic hurricanes. It's causing droughts in some areas, floods in others. Polar bears are starving due to lack of ice.
There's a growing consensus that we are reaching a tipping point, and that drastic climate change will happen a lot faster than we ever imagined. NASA is now sounding the alarm (though they had to fire some political hacks first). Jim Hansen thinks the sea level rise will be a problem "soon." He thinks sea level could rise 80 feet. Even a fraction of that would drown many major U.S. cities. |
NASA sounds the alarm; and this is the response from the administration: Say bye bye to advanced hurricane warning, and more...
_________________
“You can fool some of the people all the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on.” George W. Bush |
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