Saudi Crude Production Falling

KevO · Expert Joined: May 24, 2005 Posts: 2429

FROM HERE

Is he right?
what's the real story this time do we all think?

Looks like we could be well past peak.

ooer

Jack · Dark Lord Joined: Aug 11, 2004 Posts: 5123

It looks credible.

We have a remarkable number of items showing up from various sources, all confirming that we are at (or a little after) Peak. And yet, we in the Peak Oil community seem ever more reticent to admit that the event we've been looking for is at hand.

Perhaps we won't regard it as real until Mad Max himself walks up and starts singing. Laughing

_________________
Dieoff. Fun to watch. Better with hot buttered popcorn! new_popcornsmiley

peaker_2005 · Intermediate Crude Joined: Sep 02, 2005 Posts: 742

KevO · Expert Joined: May 24, 2005 Posts: 2429

EnergyUnlimited · Fusion Joined: May 15, 2006 Posts: 3395

Ancien_Opus · Heavy Crude Joined: Jul 21, 2005 Posts: 148

This is being discussed at length over at www.theoildrum.com Jeffery Brown aka westexas has postulated that Gahwar is beyond peak at this point and the Saudi's are behaving exactly as Texas did in 1970'2.

It is looking more and more like Dr. Brown, Matt Simmons and Ken Deffeyes are correct. Daniel Yergin, Michael Lynch and Peter Huber may have to start eating some crow.

KevO · Expert Joined: May 24, 2005 Posts: 2429

shortonoil · Fission Joined: Dec 02, 2004 Posts: 2752 Location: VA USA

Ancien_Opus said:

Eli

I can't find the discussion on the oil drum can someone tell me where to look or where to search, thanks.

jato

Start here

Then go here
_________________
"Peak oil isn't more than an interesting industry factoid and doesn't have anything to do with the hysterics speculated on ad nauseum around here!" ReserveGrowthRulz

mekrob · Expert Joined: Dec 09, 2005 Posts: 2663

RonMN

This is just dredfull news...so many giant fields going into decline in one year. True we don't know for sure that ghawar is in decline, but after pumping it for so many decades i think it's a definate possibility.

We may be post-peak after all Sad

_________________
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes.

rockdoc123 · Light Sweet Crude Joined: May 16, 2005 Posts: 1715

Basically what Mekrob said (I don't tear peoples head off...simply politely ask them to look at what is hard evidence, fact and what is supposition).

Now when someone says "apparently the story coming from technical experts in the field" I immediately put on my Matt Simmons bullshit filter....who are these technical experts? Source for this information? So you would believe an apparent source, unnamed, not sure what kind of technical background they have or what access to data they might have...over the official statements. This suggests a prejudice against anything being said by Saudi officials. This attitude, which by the way is quite prevalent on this site, is something I've never understood. I've spent a considerable amount of time in the Middle East, worked with many Arab colleagues from various countries and I have never noted that lying was a cultural trait. Now if we were just talking about politicians then that's another matter so if it was just Al Naimi talking I'd question the statement more...but indeed it is pretty much all of the management at Aramco saying pretty much the same thing.

Personally I am waiting until end 2006 to look at production numbers from Haradh III and then overall Saudi production numbers to compare against their target. Assuming demand for the heavier crudes returns this should be a good indication if the fields are indeed declining at a quite admirable rate of 2%/annum.

truecougarblue · Heavy Crude Joined: Dec 21, 2005 Posts: 480