Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2576 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Sat Aug 02, 2008 9:26 pm Post subject: Indonesia warns oil output to finish in 10 years’ time
Indonesia warns oil output to finish in 10 years’ time
Quote:
Indonesia’s oil watchdog, BPMIGAS, warned on Friday that the country’s dwindling oil reserves could be exhausted in 10 years’ time if no new reserves are found.
Indonesia has struggled to develop its rich energy resources, turning into a net importer of crude oil in recent years.
Southeast Asia’s biggest economy said earlier this year that it would quit the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) because as a net oil importer it is not happy with high global crude prices.
“The declining rate in production is between 8 to 10 percent per year. That means production will finish in 10 years’ time if we have not found new reserves,” Edi Purwanto, deputy chief of watchdog, BPMIGAS, told reporters.
dailytimes _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Indonesia frontier gets new look
Deep Waters Probed for Seeps
The challenge: Develop an extensive but focused overview of deepwater exploration potential offshore Indonesia
TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company in Perth, Australia, knew it had to provide an extraordinary solution to attract industry interest.
So it turned to a highly innovative approach for gathering multiple forms of offshore data.
"Indonesia's frontier basins, especially the deepwater basins, are very, very under-explored. Most exploration in Indonesia has actually been focused around discoveries," said AAPG member Peter Baillie, TGS-NOPEC chief geologist Asia-Pacific.
[...]
Half of Indonesia's 60 basins could be prospective for hydrocarbon production, but its deepwater offshore basins were not only largely unexplored but also largely unevaluated.
[...]
“The majors are looking at trends and basins,” he noted. “In this portfolio TGS has identified there are both prospect opportunities and huge basinal trend opportunities.”
Indonesia frontier gets new look
Deep Waters Probed for Seeps
The challenge: Develop an extensive but focused overview of deepwater exploration potential offshore Indonesia
TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Company in Perth, Australia, knew it had to provide an extraordinary solution to attract industry interest.
So it turned to a highly innovative approach for gathering multiple forms of offshore data.
"Indonesia's frontier basins, especially the deepwater basins, are very, very under-explored. Most exploration in Indonesia has actually been focused around discoveries," said AAPG member Peter Baillie, TGS-NOPEC chief geologist Asia-Pacific.
[...]
Half of Indonesia's 60 basins could be prospective for hydrocarbon production, but its deepwater offshore basins were not only largely unexplored but also largely unevaluated.
[...]
“The majors are looking at trends and basins,” he noted. “In this portfolio TGS has identified there are both prospect opportunities and huge basinal trend opportunities.”
[...]
You may be right in the medium to long term but this is the response to lease offers so far (from original article):
Quote:
Purwanto said that there had been little response from investors when the government offered 26 oil blocks for exploration last October. The government has signed only four contracts so far for the blocks offered.
_________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Posted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 7:05 am Post subject: Re: Indonesia warns oil output to finish in 10 years’ time
OilFinder2 wrote:
BTW, it looks like we'll learn more about this company's Indonesian
seismic results in October, at the next AAPG meeting.
Quote:
Baillie will discuss geological and geographical details and additional
survey specifics at the AAPG Cape Town meeting.
Maybe if their results are prospective enough, leasing activity will pick up.
If it does or doesn't, the article lays out what the stakes are and they
are already a net importer of oil. So this suggests Indonesia's
energy/economic situation is going to be getting worse for the time
being. But yeah, their exploration studies are definitely worth keeping
an eye on.
Posted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 10:43 am Post subject: Re: Indonesia warns oil output to finish in 10 years’ time
How long does it take, roughly speaking, to get deepwater oil out of the ground and into a tanker once it has been discovered?
Take Tupi: how long has exploration, test-drilling and so on taken up till now and how much longer will it take before this field reaches its full capacity and starts exporting large quantities?
Any rough "average" here? Does it take 10 years? 15 years? Or are the projects too different to put an average on this?
I ask because deepsea oil in Indonesia may well be "very, very under-explored" as the guy says. But if you can't get it out in time - that is before the wholesale switch to post-oil infrastructures is made - then there's no need to even start spending money on it. _________________ The Beginning is Near!
Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, plans to start crude production at the offshore Tupi field in the first quarter of next year.
The initial output will be between 20,000 and 30,000 barrels a day, Chief Executive Officer Jose Sergio Gabrielli said today in London. The company and partners will ramp up production at the pilot project to 100,000 barrels a day in 2010.
July 25 (Bloomberg) -- Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, estimates future oil production at its Tupi field may reach 1 million barrels a day, Alvaro Costa, assistant director for exploration and production at the company, told Reuters.
Story doesn't give any specifics about when they'd build the additional rigs to boost production. Thunderhorse is the all time champ for UDW production - 250 kbpd. Also largest/most complex/most expensive. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I'm just gonna find a cash machine.
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1032 Location: Seattle
Posted: Sun Aug 03, 2008 3:43 pm Post subject: Re: Indonesia warns oil output to finish in 10 years’ time
lorenzo wrote:
How long does it take, roughly speaking, to get deepwater oil out of the ground and into a tanker once it has been discovered?
Take Tupi: how long has exploration, test-drilling and so on taken up till now and how much longer will it take before this field reaches its full capacity and starts exporting large quantities?
Any rough "average" here? Does it take 10 years? 15 years? Or are the projects too different to put an average on this?
I ask because deepsea oil in Indonesia may well be "very, very under-explored" as the guy says. But if you can't get it out in time - that is before the wholesale switch to post-oil infrastructures is made - then there's no need to even start spending money on it.
Tupi was discovered in 2006-2007, and they will already be doing initial production testing next year, then ramping up to full-fledged production in 2010, though it will still take a few years after that to get to maximum production.
So in the case of Tupi, it could be as little as 5 years after the discovery until commercial quantities of oil start flowing. Other oil fields take much longer, of course.
Another example of a quick turnaround time is the Jubilee field offshore Ghana (currently estimated at 1.8 gigabarrels). Tullow and partners discovered it in 2006-2007, and they're already planning 100,000 bpd production in 2010. That's only 3-4 years.
At the other extreme is Kashagan, which seems to be a never-ending soap opera. So I don't think there's a hard-and-fast rule. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
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