CERA .. There is no decline , well sort of .

sparky · Heavy Crude Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 133

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From the premier opponent of Peak Oil ,
one of the best argument to really worry Rolling Eyes

“To address this key question, we undertook a substantive analysis of the most extensive field production database in the world, developed and maintained by IHS, covering 811 separate fields that account for about two-thirds of current global production and half of the total proved and probable conventional oil reserve base,” according to Jackson. “The resulting analysis demonstrates that the aggregate global decline rate for fields currently in production is approximately 4.5 percent per year,

* Aggregate decline rate - The 4.5 percent per year aggregate global decline rate among fields in production (FIP) is much lower than the eight percent rate cited in many studies and projections. This pessimistic estimate may be a function of the generally more rapid decline rates observed in small fields – increasingly being developed in mature non-OPEC countries – and the rise of deepwater projects, which tend to flow at high rates as a requirement of commerciality, but which also decline rapidly.
* Fields in decline stage - Only 41 percent of production is from fields in the data base that are beyond the plateau stage and into the decline phase of their production lives.
* Low decline rate, longer lives - Annual field decline rates are not increasing but, as a result of increased investment, improved planning and technology, can be maintained at low decline rates in many fields for prolonged periods, and field life is very often longer than originally projected.
* Offshore vs. onshore fields – Individual offshore fields are declining at a 10 percent annual rate compared with six percent for onshore fields, and deepwater fields decline at 18 percent annually compared with 10 percent for shallow-water fields. Non-OPEC offshore fields decline five percent per year compared with 12 percent for those in OPEC.

Pity the deep and /or small fields are exactly the one's being developed now .

CERA

[edit - shortened link - markl]

JFT · Tar Sands Joined: Feb 22, 2008 Posts: 21

So, there is no peak oil...yet, we are past peak Rolling Eyes

emersonbiggins

What exactly constitutes the "plateau" stage of production that CERA so desperately tries to advance to create obfuscation in the energy markets? And more importantly, is what is the fundamental distinction between "plateau," as defined by Yergin, et. al., and merely a broad peak?
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anarky321

the big question is how much of an effect on demand is the coming global depression going to have

because if this thing hits as hard as i think it will there's a good chance they'll be able to stretch that plateau out another 5 years

sparky · Heavy Crude Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 133

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Simple ,
while it's quite easy to have more supply than demand ,
by definition there cannot be more demand than supply , the balancing mechanic is price in a free trading market or rationing in a managed one ( usually with some black market on the side )

The coming economic slow down is going to barely dampen demand
don't forget that the U.S. has ludicrously low gasoline price at less than 70 euro cent a litre ,
while in Europe they pay three times that easily , more in other places and people still want more !

I hate to break the news to the good citizens of U.S of A but all the whining about gasoline price is like a guy in the inquisition cellar
complaining that the rack is cold to the skin .... before the screws start turning

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