Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
Joined: May 02, 2005 Posts: 3266 Location: One more question...
Posted: Wed Feb 14, 2007 5:22 am Post subject: Free Driveway Plowing
A neighbor came by last night with his brand new John Deere 335 tractor complete with full-function hydraulic snow blade.
The old me lusted after it for a minute as I watched him make short-work of my 30,000 sq-ft driveway that I had already shoveled twice in six hours.
I quickly recovered though. There is no place in our future for such toys. We need to let mother nature slow us down with snowstorms and such.
Everything needs to slow down.
Except I could sure use a nice diesel-powered tiller . . . _________________ "Don't ever become a pessimist... a pessimist is correct oftener than an optimist, but an optimist has more fun, and neither can stop the march of events."
Robert A. Heinlein
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 3428 Location: California, USA
Posted: Wed Feb 14, 2007 6:04 am Post subject: Re: Free Driveway Plowing
It's not so easy as that.
Go look up the biography of Renee Sicard. He lived in rural Canada, and at a young age lost a sister to what should have been a minor disease, except that the doctor couldn't get to the house because of deep snow on the roads. This was approximately the 1930s.
He set about designing technology to enable critical transportation in deep snow. His first design was an enclosed vehicle with a caterpillar-type track at the rear and two skis up front instead of wheels for steering. From that design has ultimately evolved the modern snowmobile, with its open seating similar to a motorcycle. Originally these machines were used solely for rural rescue work. Today they are, for the most part, toys.
He also designed the world's first truck-mounted rotary snow plow, the key components of which have remained basically the same for about 60 years. The company he started still exists to this day.
Keep in mind that the old "one-horse open sleigh" or its multiple-horse-powered relatives are of no use in snow of the sort that's been falling in upstate New York this year. When you have deep fresh snow on the ground, or icy slush, sleighs can't move. Thus minor house fires, that would ordinarily have been put out by the fire brigades, burn down houses and kill people. Thus illnesses that would ordinarily have been cured, kill people. Thus homes where the electricity and/or heating has failed, or where elderly or disabled residents can't get out to fetch wood, turn into death traps.
On one hand we should probably view such deaths with equanimity, as minor statistics of the inevitable multi-gigadeath dieoff of the 21st century. On the other hand the sense of compassion for which normal human brains are hard-wired, requires viewing them as preventable tragedies. And on the third hand, the blunt fact is that the tragedies that should most be prevented are births beyond half of replacement rate until we have achieved a balance with nature.
In any case, the John Deere with the hydraulic plow is not a toy, it's a tool, and it's hardly the cause of our mad rush toward dieoff. For that we have to look at the mundane, the everyday: the commute, the sprawl, the assumption of economic growth, the assumption that there is some kind of inherent right to reproduce, or some kind of inherent right to foist the externalities of one's own luxuries upon unwilling participants including the generations yet to come.
In the long run we will of course have to adapt to the snow. We may still retain the rotary plows with their "rooster tails" of snow thrown half a football field away in one pass. But we will open the roads for emergency traffic only, and we will otherwise allow the economy to grind to a snail's crawl in winter. In order for this to work, we must also slow down the one component of the economy that is oblivious to snow or more significant disasters: the relentless ticking of the clock of interest accrued. Otherwise all we will have done is create a formula for a vast redistribution of wealth from the necessities of physical life to the abstractions of finance.
Yes, you probably knew it when you started reading this, that a snow plow can, in these times, become a metaphor.
Joined: Jan 23, 2007 Posts: 30 Location: Soldotna, Alaska
Posted: Wed Feb 14, 2007 6:56 am Post subject: Re: Free Driveway Plowing
MD:
I assume that you live somewhere in the NorthEast that is currently getting pounded by massive snow fall. Isn't it hippocritically to think, if you only had three teenage boys, you could probably do the work of that disel tractor for free, albe'it
you might have to feed those boys for a few years. Diesel VS Food. _________________ God can piss down your neck evey day of the week - but he can only drown you once. (undnown)
Posted: Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:05 am Post subject: Re: Free Driveway Plowing
Wait a second. A 20hp lawn mower is a tool, not a toy, but a snowmobile which, as you noted, is valuable for emergency purposes in the winter, is a toy, not a tool? I think whether something is a toy or tool depends completely on how it's being used at the time. Most bicycles are sold as toys, but my studded tire mountain bike will be getting me to work today after a snow storm.
What the Sicard example demonstrates to me is that if you want to live outside the range of emergency services, you'd better be prepared to take care of yourself. Further, the age of cheap oil greatly extended the range of emergency services, and the end of that age may make many people more remote than they currently think.
Joined: May 02, 2005 Posts: 3266 Location: One more question...
Posted: Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:20 am Post subject: Re: Free Driveway Plowing
You've all managed to grossly overcomplicate a simple premise.
The personal John Deere tractor (or its equivalent) has no place in our future. The general population will lose access to such toys (tools if you prefer). It's also a misapplication of resource to tie up that much in a device that is only used a few hours per year when a few cheap shovels can serve to handle all but the worst snows.
Of course we'll still clear the roads . . . as much as we can.
When it comes to garden tillers, even though they are also used only a few weeks per year in most climates, the resource allocation is much more appropriate.
Yes, more people will die in snowstorms. Welcome to the past. _________________ "Don't ever become a pessimist... a pessimist is correct oftener than an optimist, but an optimist has more fun, and neither can stop the march of events."
Robert A. Heinlein
Joined: May 13, 2005 Posts: 2529 Location: The Urban Village
Posted: Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:28 am Post subject: Re: Free Driveway Plowing
MD wrote:
Yes, more people will die in snowstorms. Welcome to the past.
Not that its a good thing, but I do agree. Anyway, deaths from people's house burning down in the deep snow will be offset by the reduced number of people dying in their cars driving to McDonalds. 40,000 people a year, every year die in automobile accidents for at least the last 40 years. And multiples of that paralized, maimed and seriously injured.
Can't we get a tiller for the whole neighborhood and share ?
Joined: May 02, 2005 Posts: 3266 Location: One more question...
Posted: Wed Feb 14, 2007 8:36 am Post subject: Re: Free Driveway Plowing
dinopello wrote:
MD wrote:
Yes, more people will die in snowstorms. Welcome to the past.
Not that its a good thing, but I do agree. Anyway, deaths from people's house burning down in the deep snow will be offset by the reduced number of people dying in their cars driving to McDonalds. 40,000 people a year, every year die in automobile accidents for at least the last 40 years. And multiples of that paralized, maimed and seriously injured.
Can't we get a tiller for the whole neighborhood and share ?
That's exactly how we've handled it, so far. We have five households currently sharing one tiller. we aren't very efficient about it though. The thing sits in storage 10 months of the year then everyone wants it all on the same weekend, so it shoots around from house to house multiple times over t6he course of spring. _________________ "Don't ever become a pessimist... a pessimist is correct oftener than an optimist, but an optimist has more fun, and neither can stop the march of events."
Robert A. Heinlein
Joined: Aug 14, 2005 Posts: 359 Location: Mississippi Delta
Posted: Wed Feb 14, 2007 5:11 pm Post subject: Re: Free Driveway Plowing
When I saw the title, I thought maybe the post was about using a big rock-ripper to take out a driveway. Would probably take a D-9. Now, that's a technology I could get behind, but I'm not sure on the net benefit...
Joined: May 24, 2004 Posts: 3428 Location: California, USA
Posted: Wed Feb 14, 2007 11:59 pm Post subject: Re: Free Driveway Plowing
Score another one, Dinopello, you've been catching me off guard a few times around here today:-) Good going.
To be sure, the snowmobile when used for rescue work is a tool, not a toy. And the John Deere, when used for the weekly harvest of a water-intensive crop with zero nutritional value, is a toy, not a tool.
Most of these things can & should be shared around the neighborhood. Though if the music industry's precedent is any indication, they will soon all come with End-User License Agreements that specifically forbid such sharing.
---
Personally I do not lend tools because often as not they come back damaged. What I do is to lend "tool with operator," i.e. I'll come over and do the deed for which the tool is needed. If I have time. Otherwise not. Were I a rich man I could afford to be more generous about that. You could call this a contradiction if you wish, but first please be sure to send me a blank check for replacement of damaged tools. (The obvious exception is with my coworkers on job sites: everything gets mixed up and when we're done we sort it all out; but these are also skilled persons.)
In Berkeley California and some other places, there are public tool-lending libraries. You can sign out anything from a screwdriver to a circular saw to a cement mixer. Cost is a few dollars for a three-day period. This is an excellent service. And it does not undermine the private-sector tool rental operations, in fact it strengthens them because it gets people in the habit of doing tasks that require borrowing/renting tools.
---
D9s are cool, but most of what can be done with a D9 can also be done with a D5 though more slowly. There is something to be said for smaller scale.
Posted: Thu Feb 15, 2007 5:31 am Post subject: Re: Free Driveway Plowing
Quote:
Everything needs to slow down
As with all good threads, so many questions....
a. Where are all the neighborhood kids with shovels, willing to do this for a couple of bucks? Answer: They are sitting around playing video games, complaining about boredom, having their sperm counts and testosterone levels decrease. It used to be unheard of for a female to scoop snow, but nowadays neither young males or young females seem to be particularly predisposed to this sort of temporary difficult work.
b. 30,000 foot driveway? at 20 feet wide (double width) this is somewhere between a quarter and half mile long. I am thinking the old farmers who had this sort of setup in the past also had a vehicle (maybe animal drawn) to make it to the main road.
c I was in China a few years ago, and at the time they had not yet reached the level of snow removal efficiency that we have. Reason: it is an energy intense activity that gives only a temporary benefit (as you have pointed out, sometimes not even lasting one day). Their philosophy is (or was, at the time) to move just enough of it out of the way to allow their necessary activities to continue, and wait for spring, or at least the next warm spell in a few days. This goes for the local government body as well. If we did that here, the county commission would all be hung from the flagpole outside the courthouse for being inept. We are really spoiled in that whenever it snows, we expect some government agency to immediately get rid of this natural inconvenience (I am talking about the main road here). Also, like lawn mowing, we have some sort of social stigma about not just letting the stuff lay there and have nature take care of it in a few days.
Here is one of these "tractors". They are basically big riding lawn mowers, current bid for this one is about $4100
It is an energy-driven miracle that these things can be built so cheaply and be so readily available that the average prosperous suburbanite can choose to get one of these if he or she wants.
Also, there will not be as many people with half mile long driveways.
e. The availability of these things is driven not only by the cheap energy, but by the engine technology. The body, etc. is not all that complicated, even on a jetski or snowmobile. These cheap little motors are literally everywhere these days, and the costs are driven down by cheap energy and cheap labor.
BSPPG also purchases certain powered equipment under contract manufacturing agreements.
These guys are particularly successful at building little motors to go onto various tools (pressure washers, cement mixers, etc.) they have also tapped into this Asian labor force, which is driving the costs of these motors down to the point that they can be used on a wider variety of tools.
e. It used to be not completely unheard of to have a local adult do this job, if he was sufficiently energetic. Evidently, unemployment is low enough in your area, or the local system of unemployment insurance is such that able-bodied adults don't feel compelled to do this for a few bucks.
f. Lawn mowing is sort of in the same category: Anybody well off enough to have a giant lawn should also be well enough to figure out a way to take care of it, either by paying someone else to do it or buying a gadget to take care of it. When the cost of the gadget (or the labor) gets too high, there will be fewer people who choose to have such a big place.
Joined: May 02, 2005 Posts: 3266 Location: One more question...
Posted: Thu Feb 15, 2007 5:44 am Post subject: Re: Free Driveway Plowing
Misplaced decimal. Make that 3000 sq-ft. _________________ "Don't ever become a pessimist... a pessimist is correct oftener than an optimist, but an optimist has more fun, and neither can stop the march of events."
Robert A. Heinlein
Posted: Thu Feb 15, 2007 8:22 am Post subject: Re: Free Driveway Plowing
Quote:
3000 sq-ft
Oops. Okay, we are only talking 150 feet by 20, 50 yards long, which is still pretty respectable.
In the interest of full disclosure, I would also state that I actually own two of these type vehicles, mine were cheap ones that I bought used from a hillbilly, but do the job fine.
For me, it is an economic argument: Pay a crew of illegal aliens $100 per week to mow my one-acre lawn, or else do it myself with a push mower, or do it myself in a third of the time with one of these riders. No brainer to buy a used one of these little tractors and do it myself. If it breaks down, I will fix it.
I do not have to worry about snow removal.
If oilmageddon hits, I will get a goat. I may still prioritize a little fuel to run it if I need to do some heavy hauling uphill. I think I used about 10 gallons of gas last year in this thing, so I think maybe even at $6 per gallon still worth it to pay for fuel to run it occasionally.
Joined: Jul 29, 2005 Posts: 251 Location: Show-Me State
Posted: Thu Feb 15, 2007 9:05 am Post subject: Re: Free Driveway Plowing
Good day from Pheba, from the farm:
Boy, does this post strike a nerve. My hubby and I are farmers. We live on 160 acres in Missouri. We have had a ton of snow this winter. Our first real winter in 10 years.
My hubby owns a large IH tractor, gasoline engine, with several attachments. he doesn't have a snow blade, but he does have a bucket on the front.
Father in law lives next door, owns 80 acres, and has a smaller IH with a diesel engine, and he has a blade on the back of his tractor.
Both my hubby and father in law blade and scoop snow out of the neighbors driveways.
We have a new neighbor that sent us a thank you card after we did this. We have not even had time to speak to this neighbor, and I think they were amazed and very grateful.
But, in rural areas that's what neighbors do.
Our neighbors don't need to own gas guzzling vehicles to clean driveways because they have a neighbor who does it for them.
We don't waste fuel, and my hubby never uses the tractor unless he absolutely has to.
Some of our neighbors are elderly, and we feel it is important to have the driveway plowed.
My father in law was plowing driveways when he came upon a young woman trying to get up her long driveway with an infant. She told him that she didn't want to be out in the blizzard, but the baby was sick, and she had taken him to the hospital.
In ten minutes he saw her and her baby safely home.
Tractors don't use as much fuel as you think they would. We don't crop farm so we don't haul them back and forth across fields.
We use our tractors mostly for baling hay in the summer.
We use a lot less gas for our tractors than we do for our cars.
My hubby only buys gas for the tractor once every couple of months.
My father in law has a gas storage tank and buys fuel just once a year.
I am not as concerned with the peak oil aspect of this issue as I am the moral and ethical part of this issue.
Kunstler speaks constantly of small communities and learning to live small, but I think he just doesn't get it.
Taking care of your neighbor and working together is the only way we are going to survive the future, and most small communities have a head start on this ethic.
We recently lost our next door neighbor in a tragic accident. He was a retired farmer with cattle. He has dozens of grandkids. he was putting in a new large pond by his house. He wanted to fish with his grandkids.
He accidently flipped his tractor over on himself, and was killed instantly.
The next morning when I drove by I saw dozens of farm trucks. The entire community showed up to remove all traces of the accident from the pond, and in one day they finished digging the pond. They sowed grass on the pond dam, and fixed the fence.
It was the farmer's wife's wish that her husband's dream would be fulfilled. Neighbors chipped in to help ease her pain. They worked so fast it was mind boggling.
There was so much food showing up that the widow (a dear person and a wonderful neighbor) was turning food away.
My hubby recently went over to see if her driveway needed to be plowed, and there wasn't a speck of snow on it. The community is taking care of her.
People who have been raised in small farm communities take care of one another.
When I e-mailed Kunstler about this event, he sent back some snide remark. he just couldn't understand the ethic behind this action.
Small community is not about buildings, and how you set up a town as much as it is about how you feel about your neighbors, and your moral and ethically commitment to be a good neighbor.
The repositioning of buildings will sort itself out once we learn how to care for one another.
It amazes me that so many of us know what is going with Brad and Jen, but don't know if our elderly neighbor has enough to eat, or is warm and safe.
Sorry for rambling on, but this is a sore point with me.
Pheba.
Joined: May 13, 2005 Posts: 2529 Location: The Urban Village
Posted: Thu Feb 15, 2007 9:52 am Post subject: Re: Free Driveway Plowing
Phebagirl wrote:
But, in rural areas that's what neighbors do..
It's what real neighbors do in any area. I'm in an urban area, crews of do-gooders going around shovelling sidewalks and ones who can't offering hot drinks to those who can. Last night, a bunch came over and had Port wine and Chocolate at my house after they checked in on the older neighbors. My neighbors one street over are 80, never owned a car and raised 6 kids in his 3-br bungalow. Checking in on him was funny they said- as you might imagine he's pretty sure he can take care of himself - "Thanks for asking if I'm all right, sonny, - now, are YOU all right ? "
-and yes, I will miss the Port wine and Chocolates after PO has its effects on trade with Portugal and Germany (in this case) - but until then, why deprive oneself
If you have bad neighbors, you have bad neighbors. I used to live in a more rural area and there were good and bad people there too.
Posted: Thu Feb 15, 2007 10:10 am Post subject: Re: Free Driveway Plowing
Phebagirl wrote:
Good day from Pheba, ...... point with me.
Pheba.
I wish it was possible to recommend posts, this post is a must read, and a great view of a working community foundation that has a chance to succeed beyond PO. I think too many people have their own view of how a community is to be built, and want to impose their own ideals there, be it from a lone survivalist to a granola commune. I can honestly say I wish I was a better neighbor, but there in lie my faults and preparation strategy. People have to learn to work together ( I am beginning to chaff from all the tree hugging I am doing here), though I am preparing for mad max, and hoping to escape the bee hive socialism I view as being worse, that is equally touted as the only thing being sustainable.
Congrats on what you have there…. Though I don’t like the snow, west coast sunshine for me.
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