Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4353 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Thu Sep 27, 2007 9:42 am Post subject: The Greater Depression - UPDATE
Quote:
The Greater Depression - UPDATE
by Doug Casey
Let me cover the big picture. I do think we're approaching the end of the world as we know it...I think there is such thing as the business cycle. It exists. And we've had the longest expansion - and the strongest expansion - in the world history. But we're at the end of a 25-year boom. It's gone on more than a full generation now. And I'll tell you how it's going to end: It's going to end with a depression, and not just a depression; not just another Great Depression; it's going to be the Greater Depression.
What's a depression, incidentally? It's a period of time when distortions and misallocations of capital are liquidated; that's called a depression. Over the last 25 years, distortions and misallocations of capital have produced an artificial boom. But when these distortions and misallocations of capital are liquidated, we'll get a depression.
Another general definition of a depression is this: a period of time when most people's standard of living goes down significantly. Now, for the long run, there's no question in my mind the standard of living of everybody on earth is going to go up immensely over the next hundred years. Immensely. But that doesn't mean that we're not going to have setbacks, and I think we're looking at one: A severe standard of living drop. So the economic picture is not going to be good...
So what should you be doing about all this? I suggest you really internationalize yourself. I think what you ought to have is your citizenship in one country, your bank account in another country, your investments in a third, and live in a fourth. You've got to internationalize yourself. Most people out there are like medieval serfs, psychologically and physically: they're born some place, they don't go very far from it and that's where they die, and they're going to get exactly what they deserve. Well, you can't be that way. I think you ought to treat the world as your oyster.
What am I doing about this? I've been all over the world. I guess I've lived in 12 countries now. And out of 175, I've been to most of them, numerous times actually. What am I doing, where do I want to go, where am I living?
Well, in New Zealand. I went there a few years ago for the polo, actually, and the reason was that playing polo there was about 10% what it cost me in Palm Beach, and I liked it better. So we bought a lot of real estate. But since then, the currency has doubled and the real estate within that currency has doubled at least. So I'm getting out of New Zealand. Where am I going now? I'm going to Argentina.
And let me give you a tip, okay? Forget about Europe, it's going to become a petting zoo. It's like Disneyland with real stones instead of paper Mache stones. I mean, Europe is on the slippery slope. I wouldn't touch Europe with a ten-foot pole. If this war with Islam gets out of control, Europe is going to be an epicenter. It's going to be a disaster. I'll tell you where you ought to look. Argentina is the place to be. It's the cheapest country in the world. It has low population, incredibly beautiful, the climate is great. One hundred years ago, it was in competition with the US for being the best place in the world and the richest place. But it went downhill radically, radically.
more...
Safehaven _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
Posted: Thu Sep 27, 2007 10:12 am Post subject: Re: The Greater Depression - UPDATE
[quote="roccman"]
Quote:
The Greater Depression - UPDATE
by Doug Casey
Now, for the long run, there's no question in my mind the standard of living of everybody on earth is going to go up immensely over the next hundred years.
I stopped reading at that line. He doesn't get it. What we are seeing now is not the start of a greater depression but the beginning a greater dark age. This is not a 25 year cycle going bust but the end 250 year age of industrialism.
Posted: Thu Sep 27, 2007 10:23 am Post subject: Re: The Greater Depression - UPDATE
Yeah he's got his head in the sand if he thinks the standard of living is going through the roof from here on out. The oil boom of the past 100 years has been the mother of all booms and the bust phase is coming.
On the other hand I think there's a lot of pros to Argentina like he says: it's dirt cheap for Americans/Europeans, relatively unpopulated, has good resources with a lot of living off the land and is a safe harbor from WW3 (as 90% of the population is in the northern hemisphere). Sounds great. _________________ Just look at us. Everything is backwards; everything is upside down. Doctors destory health, lawyers destroy justice, universities destroy knowledge, governments destroy freedom, the major media destroy information and religions destroy spirituality.
Posted: Thu Sep 27, 2007 1:04 pm Post subject: Re: The Greater Depression - UPDATE
roccman wrote:
Quote:
The Greater Depression - UPDATE
by Doug Casey
...Now, for the long run, there's no question in my mind the standard of living of everybody on earth is going to go up immensely over the next hundred years. Immensely....
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6430 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:54 pm Post subject: Re: The Greater Depression - UPDATE
Nonsense. _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Posted: Thu Sep 27, 2007 5:24 pm Post subject: Re: The Greater Depression - UPDATE
I agree to a certain extent with his idea on internationalization but I still don't see how moving to Argentina or anywhere else solves the ever present problem of being labeled a "durn carpetbagging furiner".
Got debt? _________________ Cougar
"Use it up, wear it out, make it do, or do without." - Brigham Young
Joined: Apr 17, 2005 Posts: 2724 Location: Vancouver Island
Posted: Thu Sep 27, 2007 9:02 pm Post subject: Re: The Greater Depression - UPDATE
The guy moved to New Zealand to play polo. This is advice from a rich person to other rich people. The vast majority of us don't have the resources to pull off what he recommends which is why we think it's pointless. I have no doubt that things will get far better for the ultra rich in the future so long as they are smart enough to ride things out correctly. The rest of us are screwed _________________ shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
Posted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 12:12 am Post subject: Re: The Greater Depression - UPDATE
Canada and Siberia are the only "safe" places.
And even those won't be too safe with everyone invading them.
Canada will be invaded by the U.S and by Mexicans.
Siberia will be invaded by the Chinese.
Everywhere else is doomed thanks to global warming.
The only real security is for people who have the ability to survive the heat, the harsh conditions of future life, away from the future population centers.
Joined: Apr 08, 2006 Posts: 1336 Location: Somewhere there
Posted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 5:51 am Post subject: Re: The Greater Depression - UPDATE
There is no need to be rich to do well in Argentina. Pretty much any family who owns an average US house, or equivalent in stocks/cash, or any kind of pension can retire there pretty easy.
I was always wondering why some old people woul d prefer to eat catfood and sleep in a frozen apartment just to be in US.
NEW YORK (CNN) -- "The people who survived the Great Depression were the ones who had money to buy when everybody else was selling." -- My grandfather
I learned a lot from my grandfather, but that might have been the greatest lesson he ever taught me. He wasn't just talking about managing money, he was talking about managing life -- and his words have stuck with me since I was a child.
A few years back, I was taking a theology course and the professor recommended only the books whose authors he agreed with. I read those books, but I also asked that professor which books he thought had it completely wrong -- and I read those too. Then I made up my own mind. After all, following the herd is fine until they all run off the side of a cliff together.
Less than a year ago, a recession was the last thing on anyone's mind. In fact, over the summer, as I was questioning the conventional wisdom, I read an article on my television show that quoted a financial expert as saying, "It is the strongest global market that we've seen in the history of measuring these things."
That's when I realized how fast the herd was approaching the cliff.
More at the link, if this is on CNN how long until the rest of the media gloms onto reality? _________________ Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov
NEW YORK (CNN) -- "The people who survived the Great Depression were the ones who had money to buy when everybody else was selling." -- My grandfather
I learned a lot from my grandfather, but that might have been the greatest lesson he ever taught me. He wasn't just talking about managing money, he was talking about managing life -- and his words have stuck with me since I was a child.
A few years back, I was taking a theology course and the professor recommended only the books whose authors he agreed with. I read those books, but I also asked that professor which books he thought had it completely wrong -- and I read those too. Then I made up my own mind. After all, following the herd is fine until they all run off the side of a cliff together.
Less than a year ago, a recession was the last thing on anyone's mind. In fact, over the summer, as I was questioning the conventional wisdom, I read an article on my television show that quoted a financial expert as saying, "It is the strongest global market that we've seen in the history of measuring these things."
That's when I realized how fast the herd was approaching the cliff.
More at the link, if this is on CNN how long until the rest of the media gloms onto reality?
glenn beck? wow i'm actually surprised that he gets the basics of it (of course w/o the resource depletion factored in) _________________ "if god doesn't exist, it is necessary that we invent him" - Voltaire
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