Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2576 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2008 5:43 am Post subject: The Short Path to Oil Independence
The Short Path to Oil Independence
Quote:
With the price of oil above $50 a barrel, political instability in the Middle East on the rise, and little slack in the world oil economy, we need a new energy strategy. Fortunately, a new strategy is emerging using two new technologies.
Gas-electric hybrid engines and advanced-design wind turbines offer a way to wean ourselves from imported oil. If over the next decade we convert the U.S. automobile fleet to gas-electric hybrids with the efficiency of today’s Toyota Prius, we could cut our gasoline use in half. No change in the number of vehicles, no change in miles driven — just doing it more efficiently. Several gas-electric hybrid car models are now on the market including the Toyota Prius, the Honda Insight and the hybrid version of the Honda Civic. The Prius — a midsize car on the cutting-edge of auto technology — gets an astounding 55 mpg in combined city/highway driving. No wonder lists of eager buyers are willing to wait six months or more for delivery.
With gas-electric hybrid vehicles now on the market, the stage is set for the second step to reduce oil dependence: the use of wind-generated electricity to power automobiles. If we add to the gas-electric hybrid a plug-in capacity and a second battery to increase its electricity storage capacity, motorists could then do their commuting, shopping and other short-distance travel largely with electricity, saving gasoline for the occasional long trip. This could lop another 20 percent off gasoline use in addition to the initial 50-percent cut from shifting to gas-electric hybrids, for a total reduction of 70 percent.
motherearthnews _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3449 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2008 6:22 am Post subject: Re: The Short Path to Oil Independence
Honda ceased production on the Insight a couple years ago. It takes 17 years to turn over the vehicle fleet in the USA. Any other glaring problems come to mind when you read the article? _________________ Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2576 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2008 6:44 am Post subject: Re: The Short Path to Oil Independence
Here's a biography of Lester R Brown. _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Thats nice and all but does nothing to refute my point. _________________ Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2576 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2008 9:19 pm Post subject: Re: The Short Path to Oil Independence
Firstly Tanada, this is Brown's proposal not mine. And it's a PROPOSAL by a highly qualified individual and not necessarily a policy that will be implemented.
Secondly, I'm not sure that I should always be defending someone else's suggestion. I'm posting on this board because there are very few positive sensible suggestions from members here on what we should do. All I get is criticisms. Thank goodness that none of the members here are business leaders or politicians. What response would members of the public get? Oh, we can't do anything. All suggestions you put forward are nonsense!
Having said the above, I will attempt to refute to your "point". The Honda Insight is not the only hydrid car on the market.
Quote:
Many other hybrid vehicles are beginning to appear in showrooms, or are scheduled to arrive soon. Ford has recently released a hybrid model of its Escape SUV, Honda has released a hybrid version of its popular Accord sedan, and General Motors will offer hybrid versions of several of its cars and trucks, including the Chevy Tahoe, the Chevy Malibu and the Saturn VUE. Beyond this, GM has delivered 235 hybrid-powered buses to Seattle. Other large cities slated to get hybrid buses are Philadelphia, Houston and Portland.
Many others have suggested using EV's or hybrids. This is hardly original. If you can't afford to buy a hydrid, then you could either get a mechanic to convert your car to a hydrid or you could do it yourself. I think The_Toecutter has told our members how to do this in one of his many threads. Or you could buy one on hire purchase.
You don't have to replace the entire US fleet to hydrids overnight. This can be done gradually, and it will have a gradual affect on volumes of oil consumed. Even 17 years would be enough time to replace oil/gasoline with something else. Of course this is not the only measure that can be adopted. I'm sure you can think of others.
Brown points out that there is enough wind to satisfy the needs of the country:
Quote:
The plug-in capacity gives access to the country’s vast, largely untapped wind resources. In 1991, the U.S.epartment of Energy published a National Wind Resource Inventory in which it pointed out that three states — Kansas, North Dakota and Texas — have enough harnessable wind energy to satisfy national electricity needs.
The problem of whether there is enough electricity to supply EV or hydrids (and at what tme of the day) has been discussed in other threads. The answer is that there is enough.
All our problems (peak oil, climate change, environmental degradation, etc.) are solvable, but it requires scientists and technologists to suggest possible solutions, and politicians and engineers and planners to come to some consensus and implement them. _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 12:00 am Post subject: Re: The Short Path to Oil Independence
And people to accept that they have to live within some limits. That is one of many things that is not going to happen.
I actually share your view that we could do many simple things that would vastly increase our likelihood to survive fairly well and perhaps toast the planet.
Stop buying useless crap
Stop driving, especially hopelessly inefficient cars (almost all).
Stop flying (and most other long-distance travel).
Stop eating meat and dairy (or at least scale waaaay back on 'em).
Start eating local, unprocessed, unpackaged, unpoisoned...
Super-insulate homes, and go much cooler in winter/warmer in summer.
Unplug most appliances most of the time (or better, get rid of 'em).
Reduce, reduce, reduce, reduce, reduce, reduce, reduce, reduce....
and only then reuse, recycle...
Grow a significant portion of your own food.
Stop having kids, or limit to one kid late in life.
Most people could do most of these things starting tomorrow, and their lives and health and mood would improve substantially. And they would go a long way towards improving our odds of surviving, and not cooking the planet.
I've done most of these and I'm doing fine.
But nearly everyone would have to do it basically now (or better, 30 years ago).
Likely?
Try encouraging just about any one to consider moving toward any one of these lifestyle adjustments and see what kind of responses you get.
Warning: It's not pretty.
The problems are not primarily technological, but social and cultural, IMVHO.
But do keep posting. And don't get too defensive. We can't respond to the article writer directly, but pretend that's who we are responding to.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 2965 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 2:45 am Post subject: Re: The Short Path to Oil Independence
Graeme wrote:
Brown points out that there is enough wind to satisfy the needs of the country:
Quote:
The plug-in capacity gives access to the country’s vast, largely untapped wind resources. In 1991, the U.S.epartment of Energy published a National Wind Resource Inventory in which it pointed out that three states — Kansas, North Dakota and Texas — have enough harnessable wind energy to satisfy national electricity needs.
Texas's grid operates independently of the rest of the country. Brown does call for a grid upgrade - when will that commence, let alone reach completion? Mostly his article seemed a nice rehash of stuff we've heard already, VTG, increased efficiency in wind, etc. He touts VTG as the solution to wind's intermittency too, which is putting the egg in front of the cart with a horse on it being pulled by a chicken if you ask me. Secondly, I'm not sure that I should always be defending someone else's suggestion. I'm posting on this board because there are very few positive sensible suggestions from members here on what we should do. All I get is criticisms. Thank goodness that none of the members here are business leaders or politicians. What response would members of the public get? Oh, we can't do anything. All suggestions you put forward are nonsense!
Quote:
The problem of whether there is enough electricity to supply EV or hydrids (and at what tme of the day) has been discussed in other threads. The answer is that there is enough.
I remember Starvid concluding we'd need on the order of 150 new nukes to power up PHEVs. Forget which thread.
A recent ORNL study (GreenCar article on it actually) concluded much the same if consumers all tried to charge up during peak use hours. We could try and regulate that of course - bit of a political hot potato.
Tanada is right to point out how long a changeover will take - we are down 3 million new vehicle sales in the US for this year due to economic shenanigans, too. A lot of people will be left out in the lurch, which is what I warn people about regarding PO, rather than marauding zombie hordes. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I'm just gonna find a cash machine.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2576 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 4:29 am Post subject: Re: The Short Path to Oil Independence
Dohboi, I appreciate your suggestions and encouragement.
Thanks for your comments, TheDude. I think that the technical solutions are already excellent (and there will be a lot more coming) - provided these are implemented in a timely manner. The concern you have for people with lesser income is gratifying. They could be catered for as well depending on time scale and kind of preparations put in place. We will see this unfold over the next five to ten years. I don't think there will be drastic interruptions to daily lives like a 1930's-style depression but IMHO it will depend on who gets to be President next year.
In the same ORNL study you quote:
Quote:
The best-case scenario occurs when vehicles are plugged in after 10 p.m., when the electric load on the system is at a minimum and the wholesale price for energy is least expensive. Depending on the power demand per household, charging vehicles after 10 p.m. would require, at lower demand levels, no additional power generation or, in higher-demand projections, just eight additional power plants nationwide.
greencarcongress _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3449 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 4:42 am Post subject: Re: The Short Path to Oil Independence
Graeme wrote:
Firstly Tanada, this is Brown's proposal not mine. And it's a PROPOSAL by a highly qualified individual and not necessarily a policy that will be implemented.
Secondly, I'm not sure that I should always be defending someone else's suggestion. I'm posting on this board because there are very few positive sensible suggestions from members here on what we should do. All I get is criticisms. Thank goodness that none of the members here are business leaders or politicians. What response would members of the public get? Oh, we can't do anything. All suggestions you put forward are nonsense!
Graeme, please do not feel that I am attacking you, that is not at all my intention. I just find it very frustrating when a so called expert can make such a simple mistake when advocating a massive restructuring of the way we do things. If he is an expert then ten minutes of basic research would have told him the two facts that I pointed out were in error, the internet makes all the data availible and many organizations even supply research assistants to do the actual searches and dig out the facts.
I happen to advocate plug-in hybrid and all electric vehicles as a consumer option, but the article you cited is sunshine and lollypops without any foundation in my mind. Dreaming up solutions is great, but as you said without practicle deployment those ideas are never anything but pipe dreams.
If you post an article where I see factual errors I feel obligated to point them out. If the error is mine then tell me so, but don't defend an article that is in error becouse it puts you in a bad position. Most of the stuff you post is solid, and I do not attack those. Nor have I ever attacked you as the messenger, I attack the message when I find it erroneous. I didn't even attack the author of the peice which started this thread, I just pointed out the two errors that caught my attention. _________________ Oxygen: - An intensely habit-forming accumulative toxic substance. As little
as one breath is known to produce a life-long addiction to the gas, which addiction invariably ends in death.--Isaac Asimov
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2576 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 5:31 am Post subject: Re: The Short Path to Oil Independence
Tanada, What a great response. I guess I'm over-reacting like dohboi said. Perhaps I should not comment on criticisms and let you and others say what you want to say. It's called freedom of speech. But it would be nice to read from you as an expert just how you would improve on suggestions put in article's I post. You could say "this is garbage but if you did something else, you would get a better result". _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 9:47 am Post subject: Re: The Short Path to Oil Independence
"The Prius — a midsize car on the cutting-edge of auto technology — gets an astounding 55 mpg in combined city/highway driving"
That would indeed be astounding if it were true. The EPA 2008
mileage rating for this car is 48 city/45 highway, and if that's
like most of the EPA ratings, one would need to be going
downhill to achieve it.
I noticed in his bio, he's considered a guru. I guess it's easy
to become a guru, if you just make up facts.
Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 10:03 am Post subject: Re: The Short Path to Oil Independence
aahala2 wrote:
"The Prius — a midsize car on the cutting-edge of auto technology — gets an astounding 55 mpg in combined city/highway driving"
That would indeed be astounding if it were true. The EPA 2008
mileage rating for this car is 48 city/45 highway, and if that's
like most of the EPA ratings, one would need to be going
downhill to achieve it.
I noticed in his bio, he's considered a guru. I guess it's easy
to become a guru, if you just make up facts.
Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 8:21 pm Post subject: Re: The Short Path to Oil Independence
My all electric vehicle gets the energy equivalent of 245 mpg. Check out www.zenncars.com. (OK, that's the company's claim--I haven't had mine long enough to test it out yet. I'll let you know when I do.)
Walking and biking get even better! And most public transport and bus services aren't too shabby either.
There are solutions, but they require people to make adjustments to their lives, adjustments like slowing down that may be improvements in their lives, but most people won't see them that way.
Again, nine tenths (at least) of what we have to do is reduce our use of everything. There is so much waste in the system especially in transportation, that we could do a lot of this essentially tomorrow. With a bit of effort, we could do much of the rest in a couple years.
And Tanada, with all due respect, and I give you tons of it, average rates of turn over do not necessarily determine future rates. Before WWII the US produced about just about no military equipment per year, but quickly geared up to producing more equipment than any other country (US had been 7th, behind Argentina!, in such things as war ships in the mid thirties).
So things can change rapidly. But will they? I agree, that it is not likely. Especially if we sit back waiting for "the magic of the market" to solve all our problem. That market magic is in fact most of the problem, not likely to be much of the solution.
But the really sad, sad thing is that we won't come close to doing anything that effectively addresses the converging catastrophes at anything like the scales they require.
We just f'n won't. No way no how.
Sorry if this makes you sad or angry. It should. It makes me depressed, but I'd rather be depressed than in a false and delusional dream of "hope." I guess I'm just getting to old for such BS and politician's happy talk.
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 1:27 am Post subject: Re: The Short Path to Oil Independence
Tanada wrote:
Any other glaring problems come to mind when you read the article?
Driving style alone can account for a 50% difference in fuel consumption. There's no need to turn over the entire fleet when we can go from 17mpg to whatever CAFE is, give or take, just by changing habits. There are a plethora of older cars capable of getting 40-60mpg with small changes in driving habits and mechanicals, that I tend to see in j-yards, although I will admit that I've seen more larger vehicles ending up there recently. That being said, the American consumer doesn't seem to have a problem paying out the nose for transportation, so for the most part consumption has been consistent in the states.
aahala2 wrote:
"The Prius — a midsize car on the cutting-edge of auto technology — gets an astounding 55 mpg in combined city/highway driving"
That would indeed be astounding if it were true. The EPA 2008
mileage rating for this car is 48 city/45 highway, and if that's
like most of the EPA ratings, one would need to be going
downhill to achieve it.
I noticed in his bio, he's considered a guru. I guess it's easy
to become a guru, if you just make up facts.
Wait... You're looking at the bio, but didn't notice that the article was written in 2005? Care guess what the Prius' EPA rating was in 2005? _________________
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 9:35 am Post subject: Re: The Short Path to Oil Independence
yesplease wrote:
Tanada wrote:
Any other glaring problems come to mind when you read the article?
Driving style alone can account for a 50% difference in fuel consumption. There's no need to turn over the entire fleet when we can go from 17mpg to whatever CAFE is, give or take, just by changing habits. There are a plethora of older cars capable of getting 40-60mpg with small changes in driving habits and mechanicals, that I tend to see in j-yards, although I will admit that I've seen more larger vehicles ending up there recently. That being said, the American consumer doesn't seem to have a problem paying out the nose for transportation, so for the most part consumption has been consistent in the states.
aahala2 wrote:
"The Prius — a midsize car on the cutting-edge of auto technology — gets an astounding 55 mpg in combined city/highway driving"
That would indeed be astounding if it were true. The EPA 2008
mileage rating for this car is 48 city/45 highway, and if that's
like most of the EPA ratings, one would need to be going
downhill to achieve it.
I noticed in his bio, he's considered a guru. I guess it's easy
to become a guru, if you just make up facts.
Wait... You're looking at the bio, but didn't notice that the article was written in 2005? Care guess what the Prius' EPA rating was in 2005?
I certainly did not notice the date yesterday, for some reason
I was not able to get the article then, but I have today.
Had the link worked for me yesterday, I can't say positivelyI would
have noticed yesterday, as it wasn't in my head someone
would start a thread in the "Current Energy News" with a three
year old article.
To answer your question, I googled, and got this:
"The Prius is rated 60/51 mpg City/Highway by the federal government's Environmental Protection Agency, with a Combined rating of 55 mpg. You're more likely to see 41 to 48 mpg, however, which may reduce your annual gas purchases by a couple hundred bucks. That realization has angered buyers who thought they'd save more money on fuel. "
There are apparently many, many statements similar to the
above still on the internet, dated back then. There were
about 750 replies, and I only read three or four, but read perhaps
20 of the summaries google shows.
For a guru, I would have expected him to know how to google. Perhaps he was simply particularly lazy. I found your answer and the accompaning downward experiences in about 2 mintues.
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