Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2557 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Fri Apr 04, 2008 8:20 pm Post subject: Dance of the oil fairies
Dance of the oil fairies
Quote:
During the two-and-a-half-hour hearing, the oil executives repeatedly referred to a study by the National Petroleum Council released last July called "Facing the Hard Truths about Energy." This study maintains that oil, gas and coal will continue to dominate the energy mix in 2030, with renewables playing only a small part. The execs used this conclusion to dance around the need for rapid deployment of renewables, saying their study shows you can't get there from here.
energybulletin _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2357 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Fri Apr 04, 2008 8:31 pm Post subject: Re: Dance of the oil fairies
Graeme,
Is it really that hard to believe that in 2030 we will still be using mostly oil to power our broken economies and war machines?
Alternatives as they exist now or even just down the road a bit cannot achieve what the politicians think or are wishing for. There is an entire populace just hoping and wishing that alternatives or technology will save us. We are far too late to mitigate the crisis at hand.
I'd say the real topic should be dance of the alternative fairies!
Posted: Fri Apr 04, 2008 9:33 pm Post subject: Re: Dance of the oil fairies
If there were viable alternatives to Oil and Coal we would be using them already. The only option is some form of power down where conspicuous consumption and frivolous motoring are no longer an option. Socialist Cuba is good model to go by for a low energy society with modest living standards.
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 1717 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Fri Apr 04, 2008 9:51 pm Post subject: Re: Dance of the oil fairies
Novus wrote:
If there were viable alternatives to Oil and Coal we would be using them already. The only option is some form of power down where conspicuous consumption and frivolous motoring are no longer an option. Socialist Cuba is good model to go by for a low energy society with modest living standards.
I second that. Possibly the most sensible comment I have encountered in a long, long time. _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2557 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Fri Apr 04, 2008 10:35 pm Post subject: Re: Dance of the oil fairies
AirlinePilot wrote:
Graeme,
Is it really that hard to believe that in 2030 we will still be using mostly oil to power our broken economies and war machines?
Alternatives as they exist now or even just down the road a bit cannot achieve what the politicians think or are wishing for. There is an entire populace just hoping and wishing that alternatives or technology will save us. We are far too late to mitigate the crisis at hand.
I'd say the real topic should be dance of the alternative fairies!
AirlinePilot, Yes we will still be using oil in 2030 but I don't believe that it will be MOSTLY oil (because oil demand will be less by then and alternatives will play a much bigger role, i.e. more than 1%). It is obvious from the article that the major oil companies believe that they can continue to extract oil from the ground and bring it to market, and at this point that they are not going to do anything about introducing alternative energy/fuels to the market at least to replace oil substantially in the short term.
The only options left are to change government policy toward oil companies (e.g. by removing incentives/splitting them up, or introducing universal carbon taxes on all oil/gas/coal producers & users) and alternative energy companies (introduce tax incentives like oil companies get now). Government should also introduce comprehensive energy efficiency policies. Such changes are beginning to happen now in the US with the numerous energy bills being introduced to Congress.
I don't accept your assertion that it is too late. The US economy will grow with introduction of major alternative energy projects.
I still favour an energy revolution scenario developed by EREC.
Quote:
The Energy [R]evolution Scenario describes a development pathway which transforms the present situation into a sustainable energy supply.
• Exploitation of the large energy efficiency potential [figure 1]will reduce primary energy demand from the current 435,000 PJ/a (Peta Joules per year) to 422,000 PJ/a by 2050. Under the reference scenario there would be an increase to 810,000 PJ/a.This dramatic reduction is a crucial prerequisite for achieving a significant share of renewable energy sources, compensating for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reducing the consumption of fossil fuels.
• The increased use of combined heat and power generation (CHP) also improves the supply system’s energy conversion efficiency, increasingly using natural gas and biomass. In the long term, decreasing demand for heat and the large potential for producing heat directly from renewable energy sources limits the further expansion of CHP.
• The electricity sector will be the pioneer of renewable energy utilisation. By 2050, around 70% of electricity will be produced from renewable energy sources, including large hydro. An installed capacity of 7,100 GW will produce 21,400 Terawatt hours per year (TWh/a) of electricity in 2050.
• In the heat supply sector, the contribution of renewables will increase to 65% by 2050. Fossil fuels will be increasingly replaced by more efficient modern technologies, in particular biomass, solar collectors and geothermal.
• Before biofuels can play a substantial role in the transport sector, the existing large efficiency potentials have to be exploited. In this study, biomass is primarily committed to stationary applications; the use of biofuels for transport is limited by the availability of sustainably grown biomass.
• By 2050, half of primary energy demand will be covered by renewable energy sources.
Other policies have been suggested here. _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2357 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 12:07 am Post subject: Re: Dance of the oil fairies
Graeme wrote:
The only options left are to change government policy toward oil companies (e.g. by removing incentives/splitting them up, or introducing universal carbon taxes on all oil/gas/coal producers & users) and alternative energy companies (introduce tax incentives like oil companies get now). Government should also introduce comprehensive energy efficiency policies. Such changes are beginning to happen now in the US with the numerous energy bills being introduced to Congress.
I don't accept your assertion that it is too late. The US economy will grow with introduction of major alternative energy projects.
You may not accept it Graeme and thats fine but I dont believe that is a realistic assessment of where we are right now and where we need to be in say 10 years or even 20.
Major alternative energy projects? WHERE? We need them now! I think really we should have started 10 years ago. Its not going to happen in any short timespan. I really believe that.
We need revolutionary change in energy policies now. We need immediate reductions in consumption and its growth.
I'll ask you a basic question, please answer it honestly.
Where do you see the political or corporate leadership or even the will to get things moving in some other direction right now?
Simply.... where do you see it?
Personally I see absolutely nothing resembling it anywhere. We are too worried about global warming to acknowledge PO as the real immediate threat. How long do you think it takes?
I submit that nothing changes until we feel pain as a society and a species. By then most folks who have their mind wrapped around the problem understand it's too late.
Posted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 12:18 am Post subject: Re: Dance of the oil fairies
I think alternative energy will be everywhere! The alternative to our current energy hungry situation is not using energy. That means walking or riding a bike. It means not living in parts of the country that are covered in snow for months at a time or in deserts that require air conditioning. It means not driving 100 miles to work and back each day. It means not using water to grow a lawn when that water should be used to grow food. These are the alternatives society must embrace in order to remain civilized. _________________ www.ChrisGeigerPhoto.com
Last edited by Rabbit on Sat Apr 05, 2008 11:23 am; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2557 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 1:57 am Post subject: Re: Dance of the oil fairies
AirlinePilot wrote:
Graeme wrote:
The only options left are to change government policy toward oil companies (e.g. by removing incentives/splitting them up, or introducing universal carbon taxes on all oil/gas/coal producers & users) and alternative energy companies (introduce tax incentives like oil companies get now). Government should also introduce comprehensive energy efficiency policies. Such changes are beginning to happen now in the US with the numerous energy bills being introduced to Congress.
I don't accept your assertion that it is too late. The US economy will grow with introduction of major alternative energy projects.
You may not accept it Graeme and thats fine but I dont believe that is a realistic assessment of where we are right now and where we need to be in say 10 years or even 20.
Major alternative energy projects? WHERE? We need them now! I think really we should have started 10 years ago. Its not going to happen in any short timespan. I really believe that.
We need revolutionary change in energy policies now. We need immediate reductions in consumption and its growth.
I'll ask you a basic question, please answer it honestly.
Where do you see the political or corporate leadership or even the will to get things moving in some other direction right now?
Simply.... where do you see it?
Personally I see absolutely nothing resembling it anywhere. We are too worried about global warming to acknowledge PO as the real immediate threat. How long do you think it takes?
I submit that nothing changes until we feel pain as a society and a species. By then most folks who have their mind wrapped around the problem understand it's too late.
AirlinePilot, That's a good answer. I was being a little idealistic and probably poking my nose where it shouldn't be. You know more about your politicians than I do. I hope you see that the change must come from your politicians.
What is clear to everyone though is that you will be having elections later this year. What the outcome will be is uncertain at this point. It would be good to know your assessment (and perhaps others too if they are willing to post in this thread) of the energy policies advocated by each of the 3 candidates (in alpabetical order: Clinton, McCain and Obama). These policies are extremely important and may well determine our fate for the forseeable future. _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2557 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 3:06 am Post subject: Re: Dance of the oil fairies
Well, I just found one point of difference:
Obama's sensible fuel fix
Quote:
The three U.S. presidential candidates differ dramatically on a subject that will have far-reaching economic, strategic and foreign-policy ramifications: the growing dependence on foreign oil.
Where do the three candidates stand on this important issue? Obama has it figured out and spelled out, Hillary is ducking the issue and McCain would rather fight in the Middle East to secure supplies than switch from oil-based transportation fuels to more ethanol production.
Obama proposes a specific remedy: a law that would mandate flex-fuel engines in automobiles in order to break the oil monopoly, as Brazil has done. Letting consumers choose or blend the two fuels exerts downward price pressure and is good for the economy. Extra cost? US$100 a model.
But the oil lobbyists are powerful and blame ethanol for everything from depleting water supplies to the claim its production requires more oil than is used to make gasoline. They say ethanol subsidies destroy the "free" market -- as if there was one in transportation fuels.
nationalpost _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2357 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 7:06 am Post subject: Re: Dance of the oil fairies
Graeme,
I think the reality is that whatever proposals you see from the campaigns right now wont be what is implemented later. Even if they say one thing now it could take them the entire four years(or LONGER) to get anything done. The way our system is so dangerously gridlocked now nothing of substance is ever brought to fruition.
We need drastic measures and Im pretty sure all we are going to see is more of the same. Its a pessimistic outlook to be sure, but I think its quite realistic also. Our government is ineffective and weak. Its riddled with special interest and corporate groups with huge sums of money. Doing the right thing will only happen when it smacks them upside the head. By then its my opinion its already too late.
The US being an economic and world leader has to step up to the plate to begin to change the way we do things. I just dont see anyone on the political or corporate landscape who is up to the challenge.
Obama's Flex Fuel initiative is a joke. Are we going to feed the world or watch them starve while we run down the wrong path with ethanol?
I understand your thoughts and the European mindset about change. I wish we had more of that here because I think its extremely important to get the US on the same track immediately. It gets everyone else moving on the global stage. Right now without that, all these things you come up with here at PO, while wonderful and important projects, don't cut it on any real scale.
It's why I like to call them science projects. Until large economies embrace them 110% change will be woefully inadequate and far too slow to really matter.
Posted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 2:21 pm Post subject: Re: Dance of the oil fairies
Rabbit wrote:
I think alternative energy will be everywhere! The alternative to our current energy hungry situation is not using energy. That means walking or riding a bike. It means not living in parts of the country that are covered in snow for months at a time or in deserts that require air conditioning. It means not driving 100 miles to work and back each day. It means not using water to grow a lawn when that water should be used to grow food. These are the alternatives society must embrace in order to remain civilized.
99.999999999% correct, though writing about it is the easy part. _________________ Oiyl be back !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2557 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Sat Apr 05, 2008 8:19 pm Post subject: Re: Dance of the oil fairies
AirlinePilot wrote:
Graeme,
I think the reality is that whatever proposals you see from the campaigns right now wont be what is implemented later. Even if they say one thing now it could take them the entire four years(or LONGER) to get anything done. The way our system is so dangerously gridlocked now nothing of substance is ever brought to fruition.
We need drastic measures and Im pretty sure all we are going to see is more of the same. Its a pessimistic outlook to be sure, but I think its quite realistic also. Our government is ineffective and weak. Its riddled with special interest and corporate groups with huge sums of money. Doing the right thing will only happen when it smacks them upside the head. By then its my opinion its already too late.
The US being an economic and world leader has to step up to the plate to begin to change the way we do things. I just dont see anyone on the political or corporate landscape who is up to the challenge.
Obama's Flex Fuel initiative is a joke. Are we going to feed the world or watch them starve while we run down the wrong path with ethanol?
I understand your thoughts and the European mindset about change. I wish we had more of that here because I think its extremely important to get the US on the same track immediately. It gets everyone else moving on the global stage. Right now without that, all these things you come up with here at PO, while wonderful and important projects, don't cut it on any real scale.
It's why I like to call them science projects. Until large economies embrace them 110% change will be woefully inadequate and far too slow to really matter.
AirlinePilot, Thanks for your astute answer. I was initially focusing on the US political stage. From what you've said (and I wonder if others share your view), it seems that political change will either be too slow or ineffective or both. In any case, it will be intriguing to see what actually happens next year.
You also raised an alternative to change when you talked about corporate leadership. Its perhaps this area where we will see the rapid change that is required in the US. I know you don't think it won't happen there either but from my point of view, it is in this area where change is more likely. I will be focusing with particular interest in the development of alternative energy private enterprise in your country. Incidently, your media is also good in publishing such developments in the political and corporate landscape. _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2557 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 8:48 pm Post subject: Re: Dance of the oil fairies
AP, Of course, another major force for change in the US is the judiciary. We've already touched on Congress passing new laws. I don't want to go into that now. What I wanted to point out was this article, in case you and others missed it.
NY Sues EPA Over Global Warming Regulations
Quote:
New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, joining with the Attorneys General of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts and 15 other states has filed a lawsuit against the Environmental Protection Agency, demanding that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) comply with the Supreme Court’s decision holding that the Agency has the authority to regulate global warming pollution under the Clean Air Act.
“Despite clear directions a year ago from the highest court in the land, the EPA has failed to move forward on combating global warming. The EPA’s foot-dragging would not be tolerated from any other defendant that failed to comply with a court order,” said Cuomo. “Global warming is one of the most critical environmental problems of our generation, posing huge risks to our environment, health, and economy, both globally and right here in New York. We all know that global warming is dangerous — it’s beyond dispute. But a year after the Supreme Court’s decision, the EPA refuses to acknowledge even this simple truth.”
northcountrygazette _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 2660 Location: The Entropisphere
Posted: Thu Apr 10, 2008 7:57 am Post subject: Re: Dance of the oil fairies
Rabbit wrote:
I think alternative energy will be everywhere! The alternative to our current energy hungry situation is not using energy. That means walking or riding a bike. It means not living in parts of the country that are covered in snow for months at a time or in deserts that require air conditioning. It means not driving 100 miles to work and back each day. It means not using water to grow a lawn when that water should be used to grow food. These are the alternatives society must embrace in order to remain civilized.
I agree with most of that except the snow/air conditioning part. I don't know exactly where that would be. Should we depopulate the interior from the mason-dixon line north? And we think Atlanta has problems now! Oh yeah, they "need" air conditioning...
What we are going to have to do is find a way to make things work where we are and with what we have. That means the homogenization of life will have to change. The way I will adapt and live here in Wisconsin will be different than my old stomping grounds (So. IL) I will do different things at different times and suffer different risks and different extremes.
We will have to shuffle population around (one way or another) because the way of living necessary to survive and the resources of any given area will only support so many people per region. We should not, however, depopulate anywhere just because there is "too much snow" or it is "too hot. without air conditioning." _________________ "Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain."
-Friedrich von Schiller
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