Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5891 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sun Apr 06, 2008 12:02 pm Post subject: Duck and Cover: PO and Survivalism Discussed in NY Times
PO and survivalism is starting to get more widespread attention, although I don't like use of the terms 'Peakniks' or PO 'theory' - as they imply uncertainty and far outness:
Quote:
Duck and Cover: It’s the New Survivalism
By ALEX WILLIAMS
Published: April 6, 2008
Many of the new, nontraditional preparedness converts are “Peakniks,” Mr. Rawles said, referring to adherents of the “Peak Oil” theory. This concept holds that the world will soon, or has already, reached a peak in oil production, and that coming supply shortages might threaten society. While the theory is still disputed by many industry analysts and executives, it has inched toward the mainstream in the last two years, as oil prices have nearly doubled, surpassing $100 a barrel. The topic, which was the subject of a United States Department of Energy report in 2005, has attracted attention in publications like The New York Times Magazine and The Wall Street Journal, and was a primary focus of “Megadisasters: Oil Apocalypse,” a recent History Channel special.
Another book, “The Long Emergency” (Atlantic Monthly Press, 2005), by James Howard Kunstler, an author and journalist who writes about economic and environmental issues, argues that American suburbs and cities may soon lay desolate as people, starved of oil, are forced back to the land to adopt a hardscrabble, 19th-century-style agrarian life.
Such fears caused Joyce Jimerson of Bellingham, Wash., a coordinator for a recycling-composting program affiliated with Washington State University, to make her yard an “edible garden,” with fruit trees and vegetables, in case supplies are threatened by oil shortages, climate change or economic collapse. “It’s all the same ball of wax, as far as I’m concerned,” she said.
Scott Troyer, an energy consultant in Sunnyvale, Calif., said he was spurred by discussions of peak oil — “it’s not a theory,” he said — and other energy concerns to remake his suburban house in anticipation of a petroleum-starved future. Mr. Troyer, 57, installed a photovoltaic electricity system, a pellet stove and a “cool roof” to reflect the sun’s rays, among other measures.
Mr. Troyer remains cautiously optimistic that Americans can wean themselves from oil through smart engineering and careful planning. But, he said, “the doomsday scenarios will happen if people don’t prepare.”
Posted: Sun Apr 06, 2008 12:18 pm Post subject: Re: Duck and Cover: PO and Survivalism Discussed in NY Times
Quote:
PO and survivalism is starting to get more widespread attention, although I don't like use of the terms 'Peakniks' or PO 'theory' - as they imply uncertainty and far outness:
Well, why don't we go what some of our GW nazi comrades on PO.com use and go with, "Plentiful Oil Deniers"?
Posted: Sun Apr 06, 2008 5:45 pm Post subject: Re: Duck and Cover: PO and Survivalism Discussed in NY Times
I read a thoughtful discussion of what to call ourselves a few weeks back - don't remember who, but someone like Heinberg. The suggestion was "peak oil activist" - not entirely acceptable, but seems better than other terms. Certainly better than peaknik or peak-oiler.
Posted: Sun Apr 06, 2008 6:33 pm Post subject: Re: Duck and Cover: PO and Survivalism Discussed in NY Times
I love how it's worded, like this:
Quote:
While the theory is still disputed by many industry analysts and
executives, it has inched toward the mainstream in the last two years,
as oil prices have nearly doubled, surpassing $100 a barrel.
In the last two years, what bullshit! How about in the last six years
the price is five times what it was! How about that NYTimes!
Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4530 Location: Boston, MA
Posted: Sun Apr 06, 2008 7:13 pm Post subject: Re: Duck and Cover: PO and Survivalism Discussed in NY Times
I'd say a doubling in two years is a better news story than a quadrupling over the past six.
People are better at thinking about short time horizons and a doubling of prices in two years gets the reader's attention.
What would your reaction have been to a story that said, "Oil prices, which have been increasing at a 9% annual rate since 1991, reached a new high of $110 today".
Long time horizons diminish the shock of news stories.
As for this particular NY Times story, I think it sums up the latest spike in interest in Survivalism nicely.
People cycle from periods of calm to periods of anxiety. Everyone reacts differently to this anxiety.
Some people take more Xanax, others build bomb shelters and stockpile baked beans. _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Posted: Sun Apr 06, 2008 7:47 pm Post subject: Re: Duck and Cover: PO and Survivalism Discussed in NY Times
Tyler_JC wrote:
I'd say a doubling in two years is a better news story than a
quadrupling over the past six.
People are better at thinking about short time horizons and a
doubling of prices in two years gets the reader's attention.
What would your reaction have been to a story that said, "Oil
prices, which have been increasing at a 9% annual rate since 1991,
reached a new high of $110 today".
My reaction is, if they want to express the rate of change show a picture.
Yeah, most people failed or barely passed Calculus, so explaining a
9% rate of change doesn't work. But words aren't even necessary.
Readers don't need to pass math classes to have a working set of eyes.
And this part of the article they are explaining away peaknik
concern by giving an example that makes the problem look trivial.
A minor blip on some graph, without ever showing the graph. The
author could have shown the big picture if they wanted to show
what was really going on. But the whole article, from start to finish
is slanted towards proving peakniks are overreacting.
* Cold war, government printing visible pamphlets telling people to build bomb shelters.
* 1970's gas crisis, stuff visibly running out.
* Turn of the century, concern about computer reliability.
Y2K (Could be argued to have been mass anxiety.)
* Minor well televised terrorist attack, highly visible.
Told by government to buy plastic and duct tape.
(Could be argued that it's mass anxiety caused for no reason.)
* Two wars, both visible on TVs.
* Present, fuel prices visibly skyrocketing.
I'm going to say some of this is mass paranoia and some of this
is just reacting to a messed up world. Saying anxiety comes in
waves really oversimplifies things. Though you could certainly say
that history comes in waves...
Posted: Sun Apr 06, 2008 8:19 pm Post subject: Re: Duck and Cover: PO and Survivalism Discussed in NY Times
Of course it is a spin. The New York Times has always had an agenda.
It is to convince the reader you, the reader, that New York Times is in the bidness of truth. That its staff is paid to search for, ponder, debate, report on, and defend the truth. Sounds wonderful doesn't it? Noble and selfless. Kind of like a whole building full of Daddies, Mommies and Clarence Darrows
Truth is the paper doesn't give a damn about truth. It cares about delivering impressions, readers, to it advertisers. And the way it does that is by measuring responses to articles and then repeating those articles forever. So the advertisers can be assured of a reliable audience.
To acquire the most widespread audience in a competitive market the paper tailors the articles to the widest audience possible. It must keep the 'truth' palatable, easy to digest, comfortable. objective and thoughtful not subjective and rash _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Posted: Sun Apr 06, 2008 8:55 pm Post subject: Re: Duck and Cover: PO and Survivalism Discussed in NY Times
satjeet wrote:
I read a thoughtful discussion of what to call ourselves a few weeks back - don't remember who, but someone like Heinberg. The suggestion was "peak oil activist" - not entirely acceptable, but seems better than other terms. Certainly better than peaknik or peak-oiler.
I like "realist". _________________ "Battle not with monsters, lest ye become a monster, and if you gaze into the
Abyss, the Abyss gazes also into you."
Ammo at a gunfight is like bubblegum in grade school: If you havent brought enough for everyone, you're in trouble
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 1914 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Sun Apr 06, 2008 9:36 pm Post subject: Re: Duck and Cover: PO and Survivalism Discussed in NY Times
Specop_007 wrote:
satjeet wrote:
I read a thoughtful discussion of what to call ourselves a few weeks back - don't remember who, but someone like Heinberg. The suggestion was "peak oil activist" - not entirely acceptable, but seems better than other terms. Certainly better than peaknik or peak-oiler.
I like "realist".
were ya been speedie? booking traffic? _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2008 7:15 am Post subject: Re: Duck and Cover: PO and Survivalism Discussed in NY Times
americandream wrote:
Specop_007 wrote:
satjeet wrote:
I read a thoughtful discussion of what to call ourselves a few weeks back - don't remember who, but someone like Heinberg. The suggestion was "peak oil activist" - not entirely acceptable, but seems better than other terms. Certainly better than peaknik or peak-oiler.
I like "realist".
were ya been speedie? booking traffic?
In and out, you know. Been tryin to keep up with everything, gets to be a handful. _________________ "Battle not with monsters, lest ye become a monster, and if you gaze into the
Abyss, the Abyss gazes also into you."
Ammo at a gunfight is like bubblegum in grade school: If you havent brought enough for everyone, you're in trouble
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ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap 
