I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.
Go to Downloads, statistical review 2007, select either pdf or slide pack.
Very interesting, 48 page review, reserves, production & consumption figures, graphs, etc. Country by country. Coal figures most scary, I thought we had 300+ years left.
Oil R/P page 10, Gas R/P page 26, Coal age 32 (grey line).
Factor in Chindia, well, 'nuff said !!!!
Gasmon _________________ Been there, Done that, Bought the tee-shirt
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 12:13 pm Post subject: Re: OIL 40.5 YEARS, GAS 63.3 YEARS, COAL 147 YEARS.
I am sure I do not need to remind you, but it is worth repeating for the sake of completeness and for the benefit of people new to resource depletion, that the R/P ratio by itself is meaningless as the production rate is never constant.
As we are well aware, our resources will last considerably longer than the R/P ratios suggest, but at a declining rate of production, eventually giving a curve of equal area (the Ultimate). _________________ Volatility. When life isn't exciting enough.
Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 12:27 pm Post subject: Re: OIL 40.5 YEARS, GAS 63.3 YEARS, COAL 147 YEARS.
Twilight wrote:
I am sure I do not need to remind you, but it is worth repeating for the sake of completeness and for the benefit of people new to resource depletion, that the R/P ratio by itself is meaningless as the production rate is never constant.
As we are well aware, our resources will last considerably longer than the R/P ratios suggest, but at a declining rate of production, eventually giving a curve of equal area (the Ultimate).
Very True. Now I'm no statistician, but look at figures for Known reserves against consumption. Divide one by the other & figure is nearly same as production. OK, we use (nearly) all we produce. The R/P graph page 10 seems pretty constant at around 40 years for the period 1986-2006.
Its RESERVES & CONSUMPTION that really matter (the figures are in the report). We have to find NEW BIG fields soon, or Chindia will get that line on the deck pretty damm quick.
Gasmon _________________ Been there, Done that, Bought the tee-shirt
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