| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
TheDude
Expert
Joined: Apr 06, 2006
Posts: 3381
Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
|
 Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 2:34 pm Post subject: Time Running Out for Energy in Mexico |
  |
|
| Quote: | WASHINGTON -- Mexican Energy Secretary Georgina Kessel's warning to the Mexican Congress last week sounded ominous: If legislators did not approve reforms within the oil sector, the country would suffer a "severe energy crisis" within a decade.
That's probably an understatement.
Mexico's oil production is rapidly declining. The Cantarell oil field, one of the world's largest, is responsible for almost two-thirds of Mexico's production. In 2004, it brought up 2.1 million barrels a day; today it produces only half that. Unless new sources are found, Mexico -- up until last year the second-largest supplier to the United States -- will become a net oil importer by the year 2018.
For some countries, being a net oil importer is no big deal. But for Mexico, oil represents the single largest amount of revenue for the federal government -- about 40 percent. This looming "energy crisis" would be felt more than just at the pump. It would be across the board, impacting financial, social and political sectors as well. |
Washington Post
The government eased up on taxes to Pemex back in September, too. Calderon is currently proposing giving them a break on exploration in the Gulf and in the Chicontepec basin. Wonder how far they can go - or if increased crude prices will counterbalance loss of revenue to the government.
Interesting analysis of the situation in Mexico: Foreign Policy In Focus | Mexico's Battle over Oil
_________________
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I will not abide another toe. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
PeakingAroundtheCorner
Heavy Crude
Joined: Apr 08, 2007
Posts: 480
Location: Cleburne, TX, USA
|
| Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 2:47 pm Post subject: Re: Time Running Out for Energy in Mexico |
|
|
| Oops! Posted this in the wrong thread. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
albente
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Aug 20, 2004
Posts: 1356
|
| Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 4:01 pm Post subject: Re: Time Running Out for Energy in Mexico |
|
|
edited7_6V7V372.jpg
Last edited by albente on Wed May 21, 2008 5:16 pm; edited 1 time in total |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Twilight
Expert
Joined: Mar 02, 2007
Posts: 2971
Location: UK
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shortonoil
Fission
Joined: Dec 02, 2004
Posts: 2684
Location: VA USA
|
| Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 4:25 pm Post subject: Re: Time Running Out for Energy in Mexico |
|
|
Twilight said:
| Quote: | For a time it might, there is always a point of "peak profitability", but if Mexico ceases to be a net exporter within ten years, the question is academic. The bottom line is with loss of energy exports, the government will be limited to taxing its own citizens. That is going to be a problem.
|
Having spent considerable time in Mexico, I would say the result of that problem would be that the country would come apart. It has always been about 1 bottle of tequila away from a revolution. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
eastbay
Moderator
Joined: Dec 18, 2004
Posts: 4412
Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
|
| Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 6:16 pm Post subject: Re: Time Running Out for Energy in Mexico |
|
|
2018.... HAHAHA  That just kills me!!!
Mexico will probably become a net energy importer within four years... maybe earlier at the rate their production is falling.
Then they won't be able to pay for imported corn even if there was any... which there probably won't.
The gangsters will then have full control in Mexico. Save them the cost and hassle of conducting elections.
_________________
Got Dharma?
Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Novus
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Jun 21, 2005
Posts: 1701
|
| Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 6:41 pm Post subject: Re: Time Running Out for Energy in Mexico |
|
|
| You can't run a country the size of Mexico with Gangsters as it would collapse into something like Somalia. Mexico if it is to survive in any form will need to become a dictatorship and a brutal one at that. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
eastbay
Moderator
Joined: Dec 18, 2004
Posts: 4412
Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
|
| Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 6:57 pm Post subject: Re: Time Running Out for Energy in Mexico |
|
|
| Novus wrote: | | You can't run a country the size of Mexico with Gangsters as it would collapse into something like Somalia. Mexico if it is to survive in any form will need to become a dictatorship and a brutal one at that. |
I can see that happening as well. Either way, it won't be pretty and democracy won't hold. Their days are numbered... in fact, they can begin a date countdown to utter chaos starting with, say, 1,200.
Tomorrow will be day 1,199.
_________________
Got Dharma?
Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
albente
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Aug 20, 2004
Posts: 1356
|
| Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 7:11 pm Post subject: Re: Time Running Out for Energy in Mexico |
|
|
What if North America becomes brutal? Good to see you around Novus by the way, I rarely post here anymore but it is worth to re-visit this forum any time.
We try to grasp the moment as of where the switch is flipped from sufficient liquid fuel supply to insufficient. A remarkable moment AKA PO in general terms.
The rest is 'Makulatur' as known in German language, business as usual so to say (mere reflection of the ongoing events).
To disregard does not mean to to disobey by any means or does it?
 |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
mos6507
Fusion
Joined: Aug 03, 2007
Posts: 3715
Location: Boston Suburbs
|
| Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 2:32 am Post subject: Re: Time Running Out for Energy in Mexico |
|
|
| Novus wrote: |
Mexico if it is to survive in any form will need to become a dictatorship and a brutal one at that.
|
I'm sure Chavez is willing to moonlight for Mexico. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
TheDude
Expert
Joined: Apr 06, 2006
Posts: 3381
Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
|
| Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 3:21 am Post subject: Re: Time Running Out for Energy in Mexico |
|
|
| Twilight wrote: | | TheDude wrote: | | Wonder how far they can go - or if increased crude prices will counterbalance loss of revenue to the government. |
For a time it might, there is always a point of "peak profitability", but if Mexico ceases to be a net exporter within ten years, the question is academic. The bottom line is with loss of energy exports, the government will be limited to taxing its own citizens. That is going to be a problem. |
Maybe Calderon's policies of allowing outside companies some involvement will staunch the bleeding a bit. Certainly he must be aware of the ramifications of the country going into decline. I bet someone will have something to say about the SPP, too.
| Quote: | 2018.... HAHAHA Laughing That just kills me!!!
Mexico will probably become a net energy importer within four years... maybe earlier at the rate their production is falling. |
The figure I usually see bandied about for the US is 200 kb loss of imports per year, thus show's over in 2014.
_________________
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I will not abide another toe. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
eastbay
Moderator
Joined: Dec 18, 2004
Posts: 4412
Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
|
| Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 8:40 am Post subject: Re: Time Running Out for Energy in Mexico |
|
|
| TheDude wrote: |
| Quote: | 2018.... HAHAHA Laughing That just kills me!!!
Mexico will probably become a net energy importer within four years... maybe earlier at the rate their production is falling. |
The figure I usually see bandied about for the US is 200 kb loss of imports per year, thus show's over in 2014. |
Yes, of course we all read that as well as the 10 year estimate too, But my math shows that if their domestic production is 2.9 mbpd and the loss is 200,000/yr they'll arrive at a domestic production rate of 2.1 mbpd in four years which just happens to be what they now consume.
But who knows.... maybe 'something' will happen to slow the decline in production, but don't hold your breath. 2Q12 seems to be their magic moment.
_________________
Got Dharma?
Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
TheDude
Expert
Joined: Apr 06, 2006
Posts: 3381
Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
|
| Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 9:35 am Post subject: Re: Time Running Out for Energy in Mexico |
|
|
Jeffery Brown mentioned in a TOD article on Cantarell a guy named David Shields who's written a couple of books on Pemex; found some excellent pieces Googling his name tonight, like MEXICO: Pemex Oozes Corruption.
Note the projection of Shields' Brown mentions, that Mexico would be almost done exporting by last December. Wonder what happened - Calderon put the brakes on somehow.
_________________
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I will not abide another toe. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
eastbay
Moderator
Joined: Dec 18, 2004
Posts: 4412
Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
|
| Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 10:08 am Post subject: Re: Time Running Out for Energy in Mexico |
|
|
I remember reading the TOD article and graphs when they came out. Pretty bleak analysis. Funny side note.... did you see how the discussion went straight to corn?
Anyhow, most of us here read the 'expert' predictions all the time, and regarding oil they're almost always seriously wrong. Generally applying common sense is a better approach.
Sometimes it's also better to simply focus on the basics. Look at where Mexico is regarding oil production. Look at the amazing decline rate. And look at where they have to be when the export revenue ceases. The Mexicans know approximately what that date is. That's why they're freaking out right now and the nation appears less stable all the time. It's coming quite soon. Sooner than 2014 or 2018.
Oh, there is one nasty element that might delay the 'magic date': Less domestic consumption in Mexico. That's coming too.
_________________
Got Dharma?
Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Mechler
Heavy Crude
![]()
Joined: Feb 02, 2006
Posts: 291
Location: Denver, USA
|
| Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 10:49 am Post subject: Re: Time Running Out for Energy in Mexico |
|
|
| eastbay wrote: |
Oh, there is one nasty element that might delay the 'magic date': Less domestic consumption in Mexico. That's coming too. |
That's what I'm thinking, too. I can see a lot of Mexicans being priced out real quickly. Does Mexico have any price controls for domestic consumption?
It's too bad that they squandered their oil reserves. If they had a stronger economy, they could have cut production back and saved more for themselves. But they're way too dependent on oil revenues to do that now. I could see a country like Norway doing that, though.
Regardless, this situation can only lead to one thing - increased emigration from Mexico.
Hablas Espanol?
_________________
"It is certain that free societies would have no easy time in a future dark age. The rapid return to universal penury will be accomplished by violence and cruelties of a kind now forgotten." - Roberto Vacca, The Coming Dark Age |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
