I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.
Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2008 11:09 am Post subject: Re: New Oil Depletion Linearization method
Not sure if this is relevant, and I didn't get very far into your posts before my eyes glazed over (MEGO) so you may have already discussed this, but I found this reference in the book "Environment, Power, and Society for The Twenty First Century: The Hierarchy of Energy" by Howard T. Odum:
Quote:
Rich deposits of minerals historically were found scattered over the earth's crust as if a creator were scattering jewels. Each discovery produced a moment of economic bonanza, a boom town, and then a bust. Many publications have dealt with the typical pattern of mineral distribution and concentration of many deposits of low concentration and few deposits of high concentration. Economic geologists found that the distribution of mineral concentrations was highly skewed, a pattern often fit by a lognormal distribution equation.
Odum included this footnote:
Quote:
There are many papers on the skewed distribution of materials with concentration which have included many theories (Ahrens 1954; Miller and Goldberg 1955; Wetzel 1984) Kriging is a statistical method of representing patchy distribution of mineral concentrations.
Kriging? A quick lookup on everyone's favorite online encyclopedia:
Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2008 9:07 pm Post subject: Re: New Oil Depletion Linearization method
Jerry,
Those are good references, thanks.
I haven't studied the log-normal in depth because that is a nail in search of a hammer. What I have read though is that the log-normal has less heavy tails, which makes it not as suitable for field size distribution, which exhibits more of a 1/size dependence.
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