I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2729 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 9:04 pm Post subject: Peak oil notes
Peak oil notes by Tom Whipple
Quote:
This week’s major news came in a Wall Street Journal story reporting on efforts by the International Energy Agency. According to the Journal, “The world's premier energy monitor is preparing a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply forecast, a shift that reflects deepening pessimism over whether oil companies can keep abreast of booming demand….The IEA has predicted for several years that crude-oil supplies will arc gently upward to keep pace with rising demand, topping 116 million barrels a day by 2030, up from around 87 million barrels a day now. But the agency is now worried that aging oil fields and diminished investment mean that companies could struggle to break beyond 100 million barrels a day over the next two decades.”
Disclaimer: Please note members that I am not the author of this article. Tom Whipple is. This is allay the delicate sensibilities of doomers at this site. If you cannot read the article, please consult with your smarter spouse or 5-year-old child.
On a more serious note, the IEA are still continuing their shift toward the "peak oil movement". Run. _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2729 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 9:56 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil notes
IEA worried about oil supplies, prepares forecast
Quote:
A leading global energy monitor fears there may not be enough oil to slake the world's thirst — and is preparing a landmark forecast that could reverberate through the global economy even as major companies announce fuel-related cutbacks.
The International Energy Agency is studying depletion rates at about 400 oil fields in a first-of-its-kind study of world oil supply, chief economist Fatih Birol said.
Birol said the IEA study, whose results will be released in November, was prompted by concern about the volatility of world oil markets and uncertainty about supply levels.
Birol would not speculate on whether the forecast, which will predict supplies through 2030, could go sharply downward. "We will see," he said.
"Although the agency's official assessment isn't expected until later this year, the market's interpretation is that global supply may be significantly tighter than previously projected by the major oil market monitors," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy trading advisory service Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois.
Birol said oil companies and governments have cooperated with IEA experts preparing the report, but added, "It is not an easy task. It is the first time this is being done in the public domain on such a scale."
independent _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Oct 18, 2004 Posts: 2097 Location: kiwibush
Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 10:23 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil notes
Graeme wrote:
Peak oil notes by Tom Whipple
Quote:
This week’s major news came in a Wall Street Journal story reporting on efforts by the International Energy Agency. According to the Journal, “The world's premier energy monitor is preparing a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply forecast, a shift that reflects deepening pessimism over whether oil companies can keep abreast of booming demand….The IEA has predicted for several years that crude-oil supplies will arc gently upward to keep pace with rising demand, topping 116 million barrels a day by 2030, up from around 87 million barrels a day now. But the agency is now worried that aging oil fields and diminished investment mean that companies could struggle to break beyond 100 million barrels a day over the next two decades.”
energybulletin
Disclaimer: Please note members that I am not the author of this article. Tom Whipple is. This is allay the delicate sensibilities of doomers at this site. If you cannot read the article, please consult with your smarter spouse or 5-year-old child.
On a more serious note, the IEA are still continuing their shift toward the "peak oil movement". Run.
My irritation is not so much that you post what you do...its with your evident stupidity in thinking that this civilisation has a monkey's hope of making it till the end of this cventury.
And there's so many of you types around. Why, today I had a chat with a fellow who believes that the oil companies are suppressing gravity driven motors! And there's so many of you around, you're an infestation!
Some realistic thinking might well have forced us to make changes much earlier on...but oh no, technology has always ridden to the "rescue"! _________________ Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate!
Disclaimer: Please note members that I am not the author of this article. Tom Whipple is. This is allay the delicate sensibilities of doomers at this site. If you cannot read the article, please consult with your smarter spouse or 5-year-old child.
On a more serious note, the IEA are still continuing their shift toward the "peak oil movement". Run.
Your apparently sarcastic dismissal of "doomers", and even of the IEA, implies that you think there is absolutely no chance of economic growth not continuing indefinitely.
Sometimes you appear to be coming round to reality and then you go off on a tangent again. Why do you think that our societies should act as though resources, and the ability of our environment to soak up our pollution, is infinite?
Posted: Fri May 23, 2008 12:37 am Post subject: Re: Peak oil notes
americandream wrote:
Graeme wrote:
Peak oil notes by Tom Whipple
Quote:
This week’s major news came in a Wall Street Journal story reporting on efforts by the International Energy Agency. According to the Journal, “The world's premier energy monitor is preparing a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply forecast, a shift that reflects deepening pessimism over whether oil companies can keep abreast of booming demand….The IEA has predicted for several years that crude-oil supplies will arc gently upward to keep pace with rising demand, topping 116 million barrels a day by 2030, up from around 87 million barrels a day now. But the agency is now worried that aging oil fields and diminished investment mean that companies could struggle to break beyond 100 million barrels a day over the next two decades.”
energybulletin
Disclaimer: Please note members that I am not the author of this article. Tom Whipple is. This is allay the delicate sensibilities of doomers at this site. If you cannot read the article, please consult with your smarter spouse or 5-year-old child.
On a more serious note, the IEA are still continuing their shift toward the "peak oil movement". Run.
My irritation is not so much that you post what you do...its with your evident stupidity in thinking that this civilisation has a monkey's hope of making it till the end of this cventury.
And there's so many of you types around. Why, today I had a chat with a fellow who believes that the oil companies are suppressing gravity driven motors! And there's so many of you around, you're an infestation!
Some realistic thinking might well have forced us to make changes much earlier on...but oh no, technology has always ridden to the "rescue"!
If I am not mistaken you have it out for Graeme, and that is understandable. What you might not know is that he/she once had a position of authority here at PO, maybe the 'new editor' or some such title. Times change. _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2729 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Fri May 23, 2008 12:46 am Post subject: Re: Peak oil notes
Unfortunately, this was a mixture of a spiders web and the most serious post I've made here recently. I was just waiting for someone to react to the disclaimer. It should have been ignored.
I take the announcement by the IEA very seriously. In fact, it is most promising news we've heard here for quite a while. It should have a major effect on governments around the world. _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
I wonder whether this is a true field-by-field survey and whether they will take the 400 largest fields or cherry pick ones which don't make the data look bad or touch on national sensitivities. This could be worthwhile work or something meaningless, depending on how they approach it. The IEA could get access, but then there are those words (public domain) "It is not an easy task. It is the first time this is being done in the public domain on such a scale." I wonder how honest people are going to be.
By the way, just a heads-up, but you post most of your articles without comment. While I appreciate you may be trying to appear impartial in spite of your selectiveness, and letting the content speak for itself, this does tend to be frowned upon. People like to know where a person stands on an issue when they draw attention to it. A personal opinion every now and then would not hurt. Otherwise people make assumptions, and you know how that turns out. _________________ Volatility. When life isn't exciting enough.
Posted: Fri May 23, 2008 3:01 am Post subject: Re: Peak oil notes
Drifter wrote:
Quote:
Disclaimer: Please note members that I am not the author of this article. Tom Whipple is. This is allay the delicate sensibilities of doomers at this site. If you cannot read the article, please consult with your smarter spouse or 5-year-old child.
What a condescending smart-ass.
Oh come on drifter, lighten up. Get your hand off it, as we say down here. That's the first and only time I've ever seen Graeme crack a funny or be anything other than deadly serious. Now you've gone and crushed this tender comedic flowering into the mud. Happy are ya?
drifter wrote:
There are better forums out there to serve his needs.
That ain't for you to say, bro. Stop calling for it. That's censorship. Besides, imagine this place without opposing views. It'd just be a big doomy circle-jerk...hmmm...perhaps that's not the most persuasive argument?
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2729 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Sat May 24, 2008 8:04 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil notes
Survivalists may well have a point because we simply do not know when world peak oil will occur, and if it hasn't already, just how long oil will last.
This extremely important study by the IEA may well finally give governments around the world a wake-up call to start preparing for a world with much less oil. Surely they will listen to this organisation. _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2729 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Sun May 25, 2008 3:46 pm Post subject: Re: Peak oil notes
Drifter, Thank you for your nice comments. I have just a few minutes to reply. Yes NZ is well placed but we are still vulnerable to economic disruptions elsewhere in the world. Hence my interest in events in your country. America has shown to the world that it can if it wants to respond to calamities magnificiently. Case in point, WW2; and of course the challenge of going to moon. You can do it. _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
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ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap 
