Peakoil and Hydrocarbon Depletion: Back to the Basics

MonteQuest

This thread is mainly for those just becoming aware of the issue and who are new to the site. If any of our site experts catch any numbers that are not quite right, drop me a pm so I can make corrections.

Peak oil means that no matter how much money or technology you throw at an oil well or region, you cannot increase the extraction rate of the oil reservoirs. In other words, from then on, the oil production goes into terminal decline.

The peaking of world oil discovery is not in the future, it is in the past; 1962, to be exact. And since oil production, or extraction, follows discovery, this reality will soon catch up with us. Many of the major oil producing countries have already gone into production decline. The world as a whole, may have, or soon will. We will only know for sure in hindsight. Depending on the data source, we now consume four to six barrels of oil for every one we discover.

In its monthly report for February, the IEA predicted worldwide demand for oil in 2006 would increase by 1.78 million barrels a day. Since total demand is now put at about 85.1 million barrels a day, this equates to about a 2% world oil demand growth rate in 2006. In the US, demand is seen rising by 1.7 percent. China, however, is projected to have an oil product growth rate of 5.8 % in 2006. Link

From what I have read, 60-70% of new projected growth capacity projects coming on-line will be consumed by world depletion alone. We are seeing conservative declines rate projections of 3 to 4% for the world as a whole. Some project it will be much higher.

To quote from Matt Savinar’s site:

smiley · Fission Joined: Apr 16, 2004 Posts: 2108 Location: Europe

Thanks Monte. I think such a thread is a good idea and a welcome relief from food scarcity, diseases, and environmental threads.

My view on this:

In the past years we have seen the UK, Norway and Mexico reach their peak, and in all probability China has done so last year. This means that at this the moment an estimated 40% of the world's oil production comes from countries which are in decline; which cannot and will not increase their production, ever.

To understand the ramifications of that you can make the following calculations. Let's assume that the percentage stays at 40% for a while. The average decrease in production for the countries in decline is around 2-3% a year.

- In order to keep our oil production at the same level, the countries which are not yet in decline must expand their capacity by a similar percentage (2-3%) on average.

- In order to increase the world production by 1 percent these countries must expand their production by 4-5% a year, on average.

- In order to increase the world production by 2 percent these countries must expand their production by 6-7%, on average.

You don't have to be an oil expert, economist, or a mathematician to understand that these statistics are not very favorable.

And they certainly don't point to a conclusion that we don't have to worry about oil for the next 20 years.

elroy

Something that bugs me is people keep dragging other things into the whole scenario. Aliens, illuminati, second coming of christ, whatever..
Just oil depletion alone will kick us in the ass, no need to invent other bs to add to the panic. Certainly no bs that's wild speculation or blind faith based.
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grabby · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Nov 08, 2005 Posts: 1328

Monte is correct, and has einformed us and opened our eyes to peak oil, and it has been very informative, and factual, with lots of proof, about the whole scenario, and I know he understands better than most what is going to happen after the peak. I take his hints sincerely, he takes many things into the equation. The whole thing depends on human reaction to having your money, life, wealth and power diminish.

Of course, what is not so obvious is how humanity will respond to peak oil. Look at history, the response is always conquest. and they gave it all they could, until they could fight no more, today that represents 84,000 megatons. Each one punches a hole in the ozone layer for 6 months about 100 miles in diameter.

This scenario of a winnable world war is no longer possible between the four largest powers in the world, They swill never be conquered or they will never loose a war again.
We entered this new age right after WWII, this has changed everything.The three biggest powers will never take loss of oil or oilfields while they can help it.
The big bear already has threatened W not to get involved in IRAN and we still have oil.

Yes, peak oil would do us in, but it is virtual certainty we will never see a collapse from peak oil, the collapse will probably come quite a few years before real oil deficits ever hit.

Different classes of people behave differently. Downsizing means VOLUNTARILY cutting wealth, for the benefit of the whole? In which decade has this ever happened?

But unfortunately, this lack of co-operation by people themselves kind of puts a crimp in prolonging ourcondition. Basically, people will never tolerate any kind of downsizing at all, it should always come from the other guy and they are usually too happpy to give them theirs.
For example, will you cut your oil use in half and sell your house to move closer to the city so that hate chanting middle easterners screaming for satan's destruction while burning amrikan flags can have some oil to drive their cars? We are all a global community remember? Yah.

I think pigs will fly before then.

Human nature is key to what is about to happen. Most will not be ready because they have been told basically human nature is "good" inside, because that is what they want to believe. We will soon see if this is a right assessment of human nature, because the whole world is about to be put to a rude test.

If you are new on the web site, you should stick to the Oil issue, these other things are out of our control. Don't get upset when you figure out that our society cannot continue like it is and that there are no other real alternatives at this time,. Calculate things our, and rechack them, use a calculator.

Understand British Thermal Units, the measurement of heat, and get a general idea of what it means and how it compares to a gallon of gasoline or diesel. Most people do not know what a "quadrillion Btus" means; indeed most engineers and scientists don't know either.

There is also a lack of understanding about the amount of waste generated in america and how much power we use. "How big is a billion tons? Will it fit in my refrigerator?" And what millions of barrels and billions of Barrels really mean.

This site should open your eyes to a lot of things, enjoy it, but go slow. What you are about to find out will definitely change your outlook on life.

We should hope for the best and plan for the worst.

Now to try and ward off the doomer scenario, just browse this site (I don't own it or know who owns it, it is just a good site.
(http://www.thebulletin.org/article.php?art_ofn=nd99norris_024)
I won't make a click to it you can cut and paste, it is only for the die hards in here.

and if you still don't believe it here is a song:

Baby can’t you see
It’s a real dream world
Dream world
You’ve been living in a dream world
Trust me
You just can’t escape from reality
Greed meets reality
Doesn’t mean we’re in a dream world
Here I am, there you are, we gotta make it together
And we’ve made, it so far, so it can only get better
or worse.

Concerned · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Sep 23, 2004 Posts: 1501

pstarr

Peak oil is infrastructure constraints.

The initial period of exponential growth in a field or region is "about" discovering the limits of the field or region's easy oil. The point when P/Q over P begins to linearize is that moment when regional exploration, development, and new production become noticebly more difficult and expensive but developed production remains at a constant (relative to the life of the field). At that point capital is used for maintenance of existing fields in the region, rather than investment into new production.

The final period of exponential decline begins when the developed-field production mimic the same increase in costs that was seen in new field development at the beginning. At that point captital goes into new fields, investment goes into aquisition, and maintenance of existing fields and facilities declines.

The Hubbert drama is geological but is played out on a human stage with oil field props and human desires. On the upslope greed and ambition are rewarded with increasing volume and income. On the downslop geologic resistance creates depression and restraint.
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director

ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap wav

MonteQuest

As I sit and watch people focusing on tangents, they should be called back to reality by statements such as these:

"Ask anyone who remembers the 1980 crisis…. In 1980 it was a problem in distribution; the oil was there, but it wasn’t getting to the corner gas station. In 2008, the oil won’t be there. The psychological realization that the change is permanent may be as devastating as the shortage itself."
Kenneth S. Deffeyes

Fear and greed drives the market.

Very basic to having a grasp of hydrocarbon depletion. All the alternatives in the world won't matter much in the mad dash for the economics exit door.

If there is no prospect for a long-term assured return, there will be no capital available for anything.
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A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.

Battle_Scarred_Galactico · Intermediate Crude Joined: Apr 07, 2005 Posts: 970

If there is no prospect for a long-term assured return, there will be no capital available for anything.

This is one the most important points to understand, i don't think it can be raised too many times.

I recently tried pointing it out to a (good) businessman, thinking I was speaking his language, but he just wouldn't accept it.

I did spark an interest in the issues in him though, so maybe he'll realize eventually.
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"One minute I held the key, next the walls were closed on me, and I discovered that my castle stands upon pillars of salt and pillars of sand."

sch_peakoiler · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jan 15, 2006 Posts: 555

Hi Monte et Al,

One question - you refer to that well know Peak Discoveries diagram. Could you provide me with a non-po-related site with these discovery data. I need it for a talk where it will be strategically unwise to mention PO, it should be a mainstream source

Thanks in advance.
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There is no knowledge that is not power.

MonteQuest

sch_peakoiler · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jan 15, 2006 Posts: 555

Aaron

USGS Data

Exxon 2002

Campbell

US Army

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"When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.

Praise HawkMan

sch_peakoiler · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jan 15, 2006 Posts: 555

MonteQuest

Bump up for the newbies.
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A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.

Specop_007 · Expert Joined: Aug 12, 2004 Posts: 6102

My 2 pence

Formatting should be corrected so people dont have to scroll left to right. Not everyone is chugging away at 1600x1200 on a big monitor!
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"Battle not with monsters, lest ye become a monster, and if you gaze into the
Abyss, the Abyss gazes also into you."

Ammo at a gunfight is like bubblegum in grade school: If you havent brought enough for everyone, you're in trouble

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