I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3864 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Wed May 30, 2007 6:04 pm Post subject: The Damming of Gibralter
Below dear reader you will find a strateling proposal for one of the largest geo-engineering projects of all time, the daming of the Gibralter straits to control the direction, volume, and make up of the water exchange between the Med Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. The authors in dead earnest propose that this megaproject must be done to prevent the onset of the next ice age in 2090 due to global warming and the Aswan High Dam in Egypt.
Seems to me removing the Aswan high dam would be a hell of a lot easier, but what do I know?
If the Mediterranean Sea continues to increase in salinity, shifting climatic patterns throughout the world may cause high-latitude areas in Canada to glaciate within the next century. The Mediterranean is starved of freshwater by human activities: most of the annual flow of the Nile River is now used for irrigation and no longer enters the sea. The sea surface evaporation losses are also increasing as the surface warms due to rising CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. Consequently, the Mediterranean hydrologic deficit is steadily increasing. The deficit is the difference between the larger amount of water lost by evaporation and the smaller amount received from rainfall and river inputs. The difference is made up by a two-way exchange of water with the Atlantic at Gibraltar. Barring a significant change in regional atmospheric circulation, these two human modifications of the environment will cause the salinity of the Mediterranean to increase for some time as fossil fuels are consumed.
The higher salinity will lead to a larger volume of the Mediterranean outflow at Gibraltar, which will modify high-latitude oceanic-atmospheric circulation and, in effect, initiate new glaciation. This hypothesis arises from a recent study of climate conditions and inferred circulation changes that probably triggered the last glaciation [Johnson, 1997] . The hypothesis will be tested in coming decades. If it is validated by the onset of ice-sheet growth in Canada and cooling in northern Europe, a partial dam at the Strait of Gibraltar could be constructed to limit the outflow and reverse the climate deterioration, thus holding off the next ice age.
And
Quote:
If all the Nile flow entered the Mediterranean, the hydrologic deficit would be approximately 31,000 m3 s-1, estimated from Mediterranean outflow and inflow volumes and salinities at Gibraltar [Bryden and Kinder, 1991; Price et al., 1993] , river discharges, and an assumed steady state. A larger hydrologic deficit due to the loss of Nile River discharge is the main difference between today and 120,000 years B.P. in the chain of factors in Figure 2.
Ninety percent of the 2700 m3 s-1 average Nile flow is now diverted for irrigation and lost by evaporation. Most of the diversion has been accomplished in modern times and has increased the Mediterranean hydrologic deficit by about 8%, with half of this increase due to the Aswan High Dam. This dam was completed in 1968 and is a major source of Egyptian power [Gasser and El-Gamal, 1994] . It impounds the annual Nile flood water from the monsoons in Lake Nasser for power production and irrigation, thus preventing the floods from reaching the Mediterranean. The planned additional diversion of 300 m3 s-1 from Lake Nasser at Abu Simbel will bring the deficit increase up to 9%. The mixing time for an ideally mixed Mediterranean Sea (that is, the time needed to attain 63% of a new higher steady-state salinity after an abrupt reduction in fresh water input) is about 100 years. Consequently, most of the effect on northern North Atlantic circulation caused by the 9% increase in the deficit will be realized by the end of the next century as the salinity rises and the Mediterranean outflow increases.
are the highlights of the calculated problem.
The solution is to
Quote:
To minimize the eventual increase in Mediterranean salinity to a few parts per mil caused by the more restricted exchange with the Atlantic, the present counterflow entrainment of salt from the outflow into the inflow could be greatly reduced by confining the outflow to a narrow opening, possibly 1 km wide or less, with most of the inflow consisting of shallow water entering at a distance. A detailed hydrodynamic model of the flow field would be required to determine the width of the opening needed to maintain the specified flow restriction when the ultimate Mediterranean salinity and density is attained. Such a model is one of many research tasks needed in the planning of the dam.
Which will in theory
Quote:
The cost of the dam would be minor compared to the benefits of a mild climate in northern Europe and Asia and the prevention of widespread new ice sheets in Canada. However, the cost and the magnitude of the task and the associated uncertainties would probably generate controversy that might delay a decision to build the dam until the threatened climate deterioration becomes a reality in Canada and Europe. Would the dam construction then be too late ? Probably not, because the redirection of warm North Atlantic Drift into the Nordic Seas would duplicate the strong meridional North Atlantic circulation of 8000 years ago, when the outflow was smaller, the Labrador Sea was cold, and deglaciation was rapidly removing the Laurentide Ice Sheet. However, until the dam is completed and more warmer North Atlantic Drift water is again allowed to enter the Nordic Seas, cold climatic fluctuations in Europe are likely to become increasingly severe.
If a decision to build the dam is delayed, a more worrisome concern is the scarcity of petroleum supplies that will probably develop in the next century. This could lead to political or military conflicts that would increase the difficulty of organizing the broad international effort needed to carry out the project. The sooner the decision is made, the easier it will be to plan and complete the dam. The Aswan High Dam's effect on Mediterranean salinity will trigger glaciation much more quickly than would CO2 warming alone, thus providing a compelling motive to build the remedial dam, and quickly, while petroleum supplies are still plentiful and society is stable.
I still say removing Aswan would be a lot easier/cheaper, and if that is not an option diverting deep saline waters into the Quatarra Depression through a tunnel connected to a pipeline into the deep basin would act to help in three ways, it would restore humidity to air over the northern Saharah, it would generate hydroelectric power, and it would remove a good volume of the deep saline water they are so concerned about thereby restoring the saline balance of the deep basin area's of the Med Sea. Given that the Quatarra depression hydroelectric project would produce substantial electricity it would even ameliorate the loss of the Aswan high dam and could make its removal or at least reduction in the volume of Lake Nassar a more economic alternative for Egypt. _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Joined: May 08, 2007 Posts: 133 Location: Washington State
Posted: Wed May 30, 2007 10:21 pm Post subject: Re: The Daming of Gibralter
I wrote a paper in school a few years back on the thermo-haline circulation problem, don't remember what my conclusion was (probably just what the teacher wanted)
We'd have to build that dam now and hope thats enough to keep it from changing but add in the freshwater dumping in from Greenland melting?
Who knows what other effects building something that large would do. We usually think up great ideas only to find out our solution caused some other problem that was worse. _________________ An Optimist is eventually wrong, A Pessimist is eventually right.
Posted: Thu May 31, 2007 12:34 am Post subject: Re: The Daming of Gibralter
This idea is similar to one that is mentioned in passing in Ken Deffeyes book Beyond Oil. The idea was that rather than inadvertently change the climate, why not do it on purpose. His idea was to drive a sea level canal through Panama - thereby allowing the salinity difference between the Pacific and Atlantic to equilibrate. The result hoped for was that the Earth's climate would return to similar to Miocene times: warmer at higher latitudes and more temperate at the tropics. Sounds great in theory, but as MLIT says do we really know enough about all the systems involved not to end up giving ourselves an even bigger problem?
Blowing up the Aswan high dam would only cost a few thousand dollars worth of high explosives. Mining and moving over a cubic km of rock to make a dam at Gibraltar would cost a lot more. This project should be filed with a lot of those other high-tech, big expenditure megaprojects that get touted from time to time eg. mining asteroids, helium from the moon, space-borne shade sails etc etc. Techo-bollocks that will never see the light of day IMO.
Joined: May 08, 2007 Posts: 133 Location: Washington State
Posted: Thu May 31, 2007 11:32 am Post subject: Re: The Daming of Gibralter
Using Dames would have better effects as it would also help with population problems. Sort of like killing two birds with one stone. _________________ An Optimist is eventually wrong, A Pessimist is eventually right.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3864 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 5:37 am Post subject: Re: The Daming of Gibralter
Heineken wrote:
Pardon our funnin' at your expense, Tanada. You're a smart guy; just can't spell worth a damn.
No problem, spelling is for the anal retentive, just a set of arbitrary rules created around the dictionaries first published in the 1700's.
Before those dictionaries were printed everyone wrote what they thought they heard and literate people read whatever was written and interpreted the phonetics back into their own language. _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6527 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 8:15 am Post subject: Re: The Daming of Gibralter
Tanada, why is it always the people who can't spell who speak so contemptuously of it?
Correct spelling according to standardized rules is important to clear and efficient communication. The fact that these rules exist, and persist, is evidence of the need for them. Standardized spelling developed in harmony with the general spread of literacy and in reaction to the significant problems created by the lack of standardized spelling.
If wezall jist spelted ze whey weee whanted, weedave komunicashun kaos.
Because of the spelling errors, your subject line for this thread says something other than what you intended. It says the populating of Gibraltar with women. That's silly and induces chuckles.
Incorrect spelling can, furthermore, be distracting. It can force the reader to pause, figure out exactly which word is meant, and only then move on. That process interferes with the writer's message getting through.
So, spelling isn't just for the anal-retentive. It's also for writers who aspire to be clear.
Typos are one thing; we all do them. Also, none of us spell perfectly, myself included. But a willful defense of bad spelling is something else again. It's defense of a form of ignorance.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3864 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 4:07 pm Post subject: Re: The Daming of Gibralter
Heineken wrote:
Tanada, why is it always the people who can't spell who speak so contemptuously of it?
Correct spelling according to standardized rules is important to clear and efficient communication. The fact that these rules exist, and persist, is evidence of the need for them. Standardized spelling developed in harmony with the general spread of literacy and in reaction to the significant problems created by the lack of standardized spelling.
If wezall jist spelted ze whey weee whanted, weedave komunicashun kaos.
Because of the spelling errors, your subject line for this thread says something other than what you intended. It says the populating of Gibraltar with women. That's silly and induces chuckles.
Incorrect spelling can, furthermore, be distracting. It can force the reader to pause, figure out exactly which word is meant, and only then move on. That process interferes with the writer's message getting through.
So, spelling isn't just for the anal-retentive. It's also for writers who aspire to be clear.
Typos are one thing; we all do them. Also, none of us spell perfectly, myself included. But a willful defense of bad spelling is something else again. It's defense of a form of ignorance.
You sound like my Grandmother, she was a teacher in a one room school house and passed away in 1982.
When I am writing something for real publication I proof read it several times, spell check it, grammer check it, then pass it on to someone or several someones to proof read it again before I submit it to the editors.
When I am writing on here I am free flying, I don't proof it, I don't spell check it. I do attempt to use proper grammer because that part of Grandma's rules did sink in, but I am not obsessive about it. Most of the readers on here couldn't care less anyhow, and if there were a way for me to edit the thread title without enlisting the aide of a moderator I would do so once the mistake had been pointed out to me, but there is not. _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3864 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2007 7:31 pm Post subject: Re: The Daming of Gibralter
Heineken wrote:
Tanada, why is it always the people who can't spell who speak so contemptuously of it?
If wezall jist spelted ze whey weee whanted, weedave komunicashun kaos.
Probably because all spelling is, is the rote memorization of groups of letters arbitrarily set down when the accent and pronunciation of the English language was still in flux. Or they just don't like stuff they are bad at, take your pick :D
If you had put your sentence phonetically such as "If We'all jus speld thu way wee want we'd hav kumunikayshun kay-oss" which sounds just like it is spelled.
Spelling conventions laid out in the 1700's are very quaint and archaic in relation to how the English language has changed. It is useful for the non-native English speakers to be able to see a transcript and understand it, but in spoken form accent can make it very difficult to communicate.
I dare say if the UK were to adopt a new dictionary based on modern accent and usage and change spelling accordingly the differences between British English, American English and Chineese English would become very easily detected and subject to much conversation. Etymology is fascinating to me, which is probably why I don't have a 'heart' on for spelling _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
Joined: Oct 14, 2004 Posts: 1203 Location: Left the cult
Posted: Sat Jun 02, 2007 6:58 am Post subject: Re: The Daming of Gibralter
Tanada wrote:
The authors in dead earnest propose that this megaproject must be done to prevent the onset of the next ice age in 2090 due to global warming and the Aswan High Dam in Egypt.
The author (singular) is R.G. Johnson, who has a pet theory about ice age formation, which only Johnson seems to find any scientific basis for.
The conventional explanation is that ice ages form when winter snowfall exceeds summer melting, thus allowing glaciers to build. Johnson seems to overestimate the importance of precipitation and ignores the impact of increases summer melting. If the snow melts during summer, it doesn't matter about increased winter snowfall.
The importance of the Milankovitch cycles is not just that solar insolation decreases, but that the ratio of summer/winter changes in the Northern hemisphere, where glaciers are able to form. When the northern winter is long and summer is short and cool, glaciers can build. When summer is long and winters short, glaciers melt. There is a feedback effect from reduced albedo of glaciers of course.
The upshot is that ice ages start only when the Milankovitch cycles if favourable, and only if climate is cool, and take thousands of years for glaciers to build. Melting when triggered is relatively rapid. At the moment only one of the Milankovitch components favours glacier formation, and global warming increases summer melting.
It's not possible to completely rule out the possibility that collapse of the THC leads to a much cooler Northern hemisphere, but the reduction in temperature is still not likely to allow glaciers to build.
However, the idea that an ice age "starts in 2090" is totally bogus, and anyone suggesting a new ice age is about to start should be treated with extreme skepticism. _________________ It's all downhill from here
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6527 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Sat Jun 02, 2007 7:21 am Post subject: Re: The Daming of Gibralter
Tanada, I'll concede that English has its difficulties, but the language (including its spelling) is not remotely as difficult as many others. This partly explains why English has, for better or worse (probably worse), become the world language.
Thus, learning the standardized spelling is not out of reach for most. And the standardized spelling has a role, for the reasons I gave earlier.
Honest mistakes are OK, especially in online forums; what I was reacting to was your defense of bad spelling per se. That I take issue with.
Posted: Sat Jun 02, 2007 8:05 am Post subject: Re: The Daming of Gibralter
I'm with Heineken.
I have terrible spelling and grammar skills, but yet I think it's rude/lazy not to proof my posts before posting on internet forums. Spell checkers are free and easy to use and will eliminate 90% of your grammar errors for you. In fact this might be a bad thing because I would be more motivated to learn if not for this. I'm lucky in the way that I can read well, and pick up my own spelling mistakes pretty quickly even if I'm not sure how to correct it.
Also this is also good for the poster, as people will respect your views more if it's correctly written. I myself do not like reading posts with inconsistent spelling.
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