I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.
Posted: Sun Jun 08, 2008 10:02 pm Post subject: Are you guys making any money off this yet?
I have a suggestion for you guys that might bring in a little money for the site. A weekly book discussion thread, with the book sold on an Amazon affiliate link, proceeds to go to the site.
Gardening one week, politics the next, biography the next, etc. I don't know if it would be worth your time to moderate a thread like that, I doubt you'd sell more than 10-20 books a week, but you never know.
You'd probably make more from ads, actually.
Come on though guys, sell something, make some money! I'd hate to see this become a hobby that got too expensive for you.
Posted: Sun Jun 08, 2008 11:40 pm Post subject: Re: Are you guys making any money off this yet?
The way to make money from peak oil is in the stock market.
My Helmerich and Payne stock, in a company that makes flexible drilling rigs, is up over 80% since last November.
g
If the north shore of Alaska were opened up for oil exploration and development enough oil would be produced to bring down oil prices by about 75 cents. Since for every dollar change in the price per barrel of oil, the concurrent change in the price per gallon of gasoline is 2.4 cents. That would lead to a 1.8 cents decline in the price of gas.
Incidentally, over the last 4 years the price of oil has risen about 4-fold from around $33 to $132 per barrel. During that time demand has risen about 3.5% and supply only 1.5% or so. That means the the ratio of price change to supply change is on the order of 270 or so. What does that indicate? It indicates that supply as well as demand are highly inelastic. World oil production has held steady at abou 85 million barrels per day over the last 3 years. In fact it is in the process of peaking.
Get ready for much higher prices. How high? Well, the coefficient of elasticity of demand for gasoline is such that prices have to rise about 14% for demand to fall 1%. Noting that if the entire quantity of crop - land in the United States was devoted to bio-fuel production, then only 20 to 25% of current demand could be met. Thus the price needs to rise high enough to eliminate at least approximately 80% of current demand for gasoline. That means (to a first approximation not including variation in the rate of demand destruction over different price regimes and various hysteris and other effects) prices must rise 14 x 80% = 1120%. Multiplying that time $4/gallon gasoline indicates that prices should increase at least another $44.80 to give an average gasoline price of approximately $48.80. When will this occur. Well, using a conservative estimate of depletion rates in mature fields of about 4% so that supply halves every 18 years (by the rule of 72) leads to a reduction in current supplies to 12% in 36 years. At that point, virtually no country will be exporting. The US passed domestic peak production in the lower 48 in the early 70's and has been declining since. (Yes the Prudhoe bay find did least to a brief period of aggregate domestic production increase in the 80's.) Thus within 40 years, oil resources to supply the US will be insignificant within 40 years and probably limited to military, government and emergency services with a few exceptions. At that time we can expect gasoline prices in the states to run about $50/gallon which will be needed to reduce demand to a managable level. Note also that all crop-land will not be devoted to bio-fuels and third world imports are not likely to bridge the difference.
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 12:04 am Post subject: Re: Are you guys making any money off this yet?
This thread is in the www.peakoil.com suggestion box. It's not about how I make money off peak oil, it's more that I hope the site is at least self-sustaining, and that I hope these guys make enough money running the site that they keep it up.
Joined: Sep 03, 2007 Posts: 637 Location: Sunny Virginia, USA
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 1:21 am Post subject: Re: Are you guys making any money off this yet?
Ayoob wrote:
I have a suggestion for you guys that might bring in a little money for the site. A weekly book discussion thread, with the book sold on an Amazon affiliate link, proceeds to go to the site.
Gardening one week, politics the next, biography the next, etc. I don't know if it would be worth your time to moderate a thread like that, I doubt you'd sell more than 10-20 books a week, but you never know.
You'd probably make more from ads, actually.
Come on though guys, sell something, make some money! I'd hate to see this become a hobby that got too expensive for you.
Actually, it's not a bad idea if moderated properly and you can get a community of people to pitch in. _________________ When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 5:49 am Post subject: Re: Are you guys making any money off this yet?
Anyone managed to buy a million barrels at $51 back in Jan 2007 ? _________________ Live quotes - crude oil, gold and currencies
http://www.post1.net/lowem/page/livequotes
Joined: Dec 30, 2007 Posts: 16 Location: South Carolina
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 6:55 am Post subject: Re: Are you guys making any money off this yet?
Yep. But not a million barrels. I started buying around the first of '07, on a small level. I wish I would have jumped in big time! I have steadily increased my position until about a month ago. I am now heavily invested (2/3 of everything I have). Majority is long-term oil futures, but also in Suncor stock.
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 7:36 am Post subject: Re: Are you guys making any money off this yet?
Ummm no lol... _________________ "When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F Roberts.
The ones without money, peakoil will be the TSHTF time for them, for the rich it will not matter. The poor people will not have any benefits of oil use directed to them anymore, this will include food and other necessities, all oil will be directed toward the rich, they will still live a wonderful lifestyle, not much will change among them until oil production has declined to such a great amount that the upper rich class will then have to fight between themselves for oil.
I recommend investing in non-conventional oil investments, oil investments that can ramp up production when the price rises. One is coal to liquid oil companies, they will make alot of money such as Linc Energy Ltd, LNC.ax, perhaps buy on a pullback.
I warn you thou the alternative energy arena is fraught will danger, one that I have been looking at is ABJ.ax
If you are not rich now, waiting afew years to become rich will not work. The conventional rags into riches stories will be a thing of the past except for "Annie" type stories with a twist the girl would be found by prostituting herself to the rich. In the future, once you fall down, it will be impossible to get back up, once poor you will always be poor.
The ones without money, peakoil will be the TSHTF time for them, for the rich it will not matter. The poor people will not have any benefits of oil use directed to them anymore, this will include food and other necessities, all oil will be directed toward the rich, they will still live a wonderful lifestyle, not much will change among them until oil production has declined to such a great amount that the upper rich class will then have to fight between themselves for oil.
I recommend investing in non-conventional oil investments, oil investments that can ramp up production when the price rises. One is coal to liquid oil companies, they will make alot of money such as Linc Energy Ltd, LNC.ax, perhaps buy on a pullback.
I warn you thou the alternative energy arena is fraught will danger, one that I have been looking at is ABJ.ax
If you are not rich now, waiting afew years to become rich will not work. The conventional rags into riches stories will be a thing of the past except for "Annie" type stories with a twist the girl would be found by prostituting herself to the rich. In the future, once you fall down, it will be impossible to get back up, once poor you will always be poor.
Good one, I was thinking of getting in on that last year but didn't have the funds. _________________ Just look at us. Everything is backwards; everything is upside down. Doctors destory health, lawyers destroy justice, universities destroy knowledge, governments destroy freedom, the major media destroy information and religions destroy spirituality.
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2008 9:45 am Post subject: Re: Are you guys making any money off this yet?
Ah thats bad luck mmasters, I almost screwed up last week. When oil hit $135 a barrel I though it might be a good time to check out some airline stocks, I bought VBA (virgin blue) for .60, oil kept falling to $121 and I though I was onto a good thing, but then oil jumped back up to $125 and I thought I better get out of VBA and sold into the market at open at .63, the market hasn't been open since the oil spike on friday as it's the queens birthday here, but in the morning I suspect VBA will be creamed and be in the .50's, I might play it again I don't know.
VBA was $2.75 a year ago so it looks compelling if oil prices cool from their peak. _________________
Man's like a candle in a candlestick,
Made up of tallow and a little wick;
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