I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.
Posted: Sun Aug 10, 2008 12:30 pm Post subject: Why Stone Age?
I'd describe myself as a doomer ie I believe we have an overshoot situation, there will be die-off, the system will collapse. I also fear Mad-max scenarios, but probably not as much as totalitarian government.
But, unlike some, I also have a certain amount of hope. As population falls, surely this will start to make resources more freely available. As most think, we are not talking about running out of all resources, just there not being enough to go round and resources becoming more scarce, so as die-off occurs, surely this will start to alleviate food and other shortages.
Hopefully survivors of this stage will not lose the vast amounts of knowledge that we've gained over the ceturies and will therefore be able to use basic technology without going back to stone age.
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13064 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Sun Aug 10, 2008 12:37 pm Post subject: Re: Why Stone Age?
Ultimately, the only truly sustainable technology is stone age technology, barring moving into the Spacefaring Age. After we have used the existing degradable metals for a few hundred or possibly a couple thousand years, we probably won't be able to get any more, because the easy to get strata have all been mined. Without cheap energy, it will probably be impossible to do modern mining such as mountain top removal or very deep tunnel mines because these require advanced technology. So after the Rust Age, we will by necessity return to the Stone Age. But this won't be for hundreds or possibly thousands of years. In my opinion. _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
Joined: Oct 15, 2005 Posts: 174 Location: Trollhättan, Sweden
Posted: Sun Aug 10, 2008 12:47 pm Post subject: Re: Why Stone Age?
I did not know metals did run out.. so, how does one use up all the copper, silver, gold and platinum in the world so none of it remains for the future?
Posted: Sun Aug 10, 2008 1:34 pm Post subject: Re: Why Stone Age?
Gorm wrote:
how does one use up all the copper, silver, gold and platinum in the world so none of it remains for the future?
By mining the easy to reach, high grade ores first, then moving on to harder to reach, lower grade ores and so on, with extraction and refining requiring ever more energy and technology to produce the finished product.
The finished product is then distributed over a vast area, used in other goods which wear out or become obsolete over time, lost, abandoned, recycled or discarded. _________________ If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face--for ever."
-George Orwell, 1984
Joined: Oct 15, 2005 Posts: 174 Location: Trollhättan, Sweden
Posted: Sun Aug 10, 2008 1:45 pm Post subject: Re: Why Stone Age?
and then recycled, because it is valuble. It will not dissaper. And if there is a substantional die-off, there will be no lack of metal for those who live on. Metals will not run out, because we cant destroy them. It is not like oil.
Posted: Sun Aug 10, 2008 2:02 pm Post subject: Re: Why Stone Age?
metals will be with us for a while. Coins, cars, silverware, cans, tools, its all around us. Metals can be destroyed in the sense they are no longer useful in their previous form. Iron can rust. Metal parts can wear down, turn into filings which blow away, corrode to a point there is nothing left with a use. Recycling is a fine plan, but experience shows that the amounts of, say, gold in a computer does not make it a worthwhile endeavor without a large investment in equipment to extract that gold. Along with the equipment needed to recycle metals comes the energy to melt it down and refine it once again. If you have a metal axe head and a piece breaks off, you no longer have a useful tool. Good luck getting it fixed or replaced in a low energy future. _________________ If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face--for ever."
-George Orwell, 1984
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13064 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Sun Aug 10, 2008 2:39 pm Post subject: Re: Why Stone Age?
Gorm wrote:
but the metals were there in the low energy past, an metal axe would have been fixed then, or melted into another form, mabye a sword or a plow.
The useful metal - iron- rusts, and is no longer in usable form as iron oxide, except as a pigment.
How will people preserve the large store of iron to last more than hundreds or optimistically, a couple thousand years? Who will preserve the iron for future generations? _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
Joined: Nov 25, 2006 Posts: 1524 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sun Aug 10, 2008 2:41 pm Post subject: Re: Why Stone Age?
Ludi wrote:
Ultimately, the only truly sustainable technology is stone age technology, barring moving into the Spacefaring Age. After we have used the existing degradable metals for a few hundred or possibly a couple thousand years, we probably won't be able to get any more, because the easy to get strata have all been mined. Without cheap energy, it will probably be impossible to do modern mining such as mountain top removal or very deep tunnel mines because these require advanced technology. So after the Rust Age, we will by necessity return to the Stone Age. But this won't be for hundreds or possibly thousands of years. In my opinion.
This is the type of silliness that makes peakoilers look bad.
Have you heard of recycling? How about synthetics? Certainly some metals will grow scarce so we'll have to switch to others.
IIRC, people were predicting we'd run out of copper decades ago but it's not so urgent because we've switched to other materials for many things copper was formerly used for.
Going back to the Stone Age would never happen. And even if somehow it did, we'd be back out of it again in a few hundred years or less (unless writing somehow disappeared). Human curiosity is irrepressible. _________________ My PO Amazon store (shameless plug).
Posted: Sun Aug 10, 2008 2:42 pm Post subject: Re: Why Stone Age?
Gorm wrote:
and then recycled, because it is valuble. It will not dissaper. And if there is a substantional die-off, there will be no lack of metal for those who live on. Metals will not run out, because we cant destroy them. It is not like oil.
You're missing a critical detail.
That is, that there is always some loss.
Landfill loss, abandoned loss, processing loss.
Recycling can never be 100%.
Eventually then, we must run out of the metal that is already mined and embodied in existing products.
The only question is when.
I'd figure several hundred years, minimum, because, as you noted, there will be die off, and if 5/6ths of the population disappears, then there should be plenty of metal lying around to scavenge.
But this, to me, is a big unknown. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13064 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Sun Aug 10, 2008 2:47 pm Post subject: Re: Why Stone Age?
Narz wrote:
This is the type of silliness that makes peakoilers look bad.
Hey, that's great! If I can all on my own make peakoilers look bad, I am certainly doing a service to the world, no doubt.
I kind of thought the "kill off" threads made peakoilers look bad, but I guess I was wrong.
Happy to post "silliness" that makes everyone else look bad. _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13064 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Sun Aug 10, 2008 2:50 pm Post subject: Re: Why Stone Age?
Cashmere wrote:
I'd figure several hundred years, minimum,
I'm guessing several hundred years to possibly a couple or few thousand, depending on the size chunks of the iron, and how quickly they are being weathered. If they were consciously preserved by some means, they could last indefinitely.
I don't predict by any means a sudden or near-term future Stone Age. _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13064 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Sun Aug 10, 2008 3:04 pm Post subject: Re: Why Stone Age?
Just for informational curiosity sake, Narz, what is the replacement for iron? _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
Joined: Nov 24, 2007 Posts: 129 Location: Christchurch, New Zealand
Posted: Sun Aug 10, 2008 3:06 pm Post subject: Re: Why Stone Age?
kpeavey wrote:
Recycling is a fine plan, but experience shows that the amounts of, say, gold in a computer does not make it a worthwhile endeavor without a large investment in equipment to extract that gold.
From a quick google:
Quote:
Imagine sheer mountains of discarded Pentium IIIs, tractor trailers overflowing with discarded wall warts. Photojournalist Natalie Behring visited Guiyu, China and documented the world's biggest digital dump where, for $2 per day, the locals sort, disassemble, and pulverize hundreds of tons of e-waste. The payoff is huge: computer waste contains 17 times more gold than gold ore, 40 times more copper than copper ore. But the detritus also leaches chemicals and metals into local water supplies.
Gold, copper, silver etc extraction from e-waste is a huge industry today. Sure, a lot of your comment is talking about investing in equipment and energy, but once the processing plants are already built (during an age of plentiful energy), they will continue to be maintained into the future, especially as the resources they extract become more scarce. Similarly for energy prices - as the energy price rises, the value of the extracted goods will increase as it neccesarily must. This doesn't mean that people will simply stop extracting the materials, just that via the law of supply and demand the demand will shrink and so will the supply while in turn the price rises.
I don't think running out of general metals is a credible concern for another few centuries at the very least. Now running out of specific metals and elements is another whole story altogether - there isn't much indium in the world and it is increasingly being used in the production of LCD TVs and monitors etc.
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