I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 4329 Location: Graceland
Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 10:11 pm Post subject: Re: Not the end of the world
That fellow is a very good writer.
I don't know if I would call it an upbeat assessment. He basically seems to be saying that the collapse will be slow, as opposed to fast. What he refers to as "ecotechnic societies" makes me wonder if he is referring to Bartertown from Mad Mad: Beyond Thunderdome.
Quote:
It’s not the end of the world, or even the end of industrial civilization, but if history is anything to go by, we could be in for a couple of very rough decades. A crisis phase in the downward arc of catabolic collapse is not a pleasant thing to live through, and we can expect it to have social, economic, political, and (unless we’re extraordinarily lucky) military dimensions that will transform most people’s lives for the worse, temporarily or forever. That need not stop us from facing the emerging crisis with as much grace and humanity as we can muster, while doing our part to lay the foundations for the ecotechnic societies of the future – unless, that is, we allow premature proclamations of triumph or catastrophe to distract us from the work that must be done.
Posted: Thu May 08, 2008 10:27 pm Post subject: Re: Not the end of the world
I think he wants to tell that the collapse will not be entirely, and the industrial society will continue, however on a lower level of everything.
I don't really agree. There is this possibility, but a crash is more likely I think. However often crashes of civilizations are not entirely like the Roman Empire built on the rests of the Greek empire and the Medieval society has lots of its cultural roots in the Roman like the latin language.
Even a partly breakdown of the civilization like in the 20th is something unthinkable for our generation.
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13064 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Fri May 09, 2008 8:30 am Post subject: Re: Not the end of the world
Quote:
That need not stop us from facing the emerging crisis with as much grace and humanity as we can muster, while doing our part to lay the foundations for the ecotechnic societies of the future – unless, that is, we allow premature proclamations of triumph or catastrophe to distract us from the work that must be done.
How can you "distract" people from something they aren't even thinking about in the first place?
What "work that must be done" and who is supposed to be doing it? Are they doing it? Do they plan to start doing it sometime?
_________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 3:38 am Post subject: Re: Not the end of the world
If you met one person and he told you that your child was gvery stupid, and likely would not make anything of herself in this world, and then you met another person who told you your child was very bright and was a "hidden genius" who would you believe?
well, that is why no one will believe the truth.
It is definitely the complete and utter end of this planet within ten years.
finis
Joined: Jun 03, 2004 Posts: 127 Location: Great Britain
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 5:51 am Post subject: Re: Not the end of the world
I've always thought it will be a steady decline on average but with sharp crashes along the way. There are several tipping points that will probably be reached that will cause these sharp downturns, then there will be a partial recovery, then another sharp down turn.
I can for example see the whole financial system going into meltdown when it becomes clear that economic growth is no longer possible and when they can't service all the debt, loans, mortgages etc. So much of the economy is fantasy, based on wealth that doesn't even exist, that it must be stripped away soon.
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 6:37 am Post subject: Re: Not the end of the world
I thought it was a good, well-balanced read. I cannot blame any one author for missing some critically important point their post peak oil resource depletion analysis. We may think of thousands of such scenarios, but each one may be slightly off the mark because we are not omnipotent, so we cannot foresee all variables, feedback loops and how they interact with one another over time. We each add a small piece to the puzzle, but even by that act we slightly change the outcome. Our collective actions will either help mitigate the economic and social upheaval of the transition or may exacerbate the pain.
Quote:
'Peak oil' believers
"These survivalists believe in "peak oil,'' the idea that world oil production is set to hit a high point and then decline. Scientists who support idea say the amount of oil produced in the world each year has already or will soon begin a downward slide, even amid increased demand. But many scientists say such a scenario will be avoided as other sources of energy come in to fill the void.
On the PeakOil.com website, where upward of 800 people gathered on recent evenings, believers engage in a debate about what kind of world awaits.
Some members argue there will be no financial crash, but a slow slide into harder times. Some believe the federal government will respond to the loss of energy security with a clampdown on personal freedoms. Others simply don't trust that the government can maintain basic services in the face of an energy crisis.
The powers that be, they've determined, will be largely powerless to stop what is to come.
Source: 'Peak oil' believers _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Posted: Mon May 26, 2008 6:33 pm Post subject: Re: Not the end of the world
yull wrote:
I've always thought it will be a steady decline on average but with sharp crashes along the way. There are several tipping points that will probably be reached that will cause these sharp downturns, then there will be a partial recovery, then another sharp down turn.
I can for example see the whole financial system going into meltdown when it becomes clear that economic growth is no longer possible and when they can't service all the debt, loans, mortgages etc. So much of the economy is fantasy, based on wealth that doesn't even exist, that it must be stripped away soon.
It's difficult to reconcile your two positions. The first, that partial recoveries will occur does not jive with the 'financial meltdown". What comes after a meltdown? Will our aging infrastructure, specifically the rusty old gas and petroleum pipelines be maintained during the meltdown? Will the consumer/retail component of our society withstand the meltdown? How can a postpeak mass transit system be built by bankrupt governments? _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
This sounds far more optimistic than most what I can read here. What do you think of it?
I've been pondering the question what's going to happen and I think the most likely scenario for the next 50 years is an ever increasing bimodal distribution based on wealth and power, in other words more of the social economic divisions we have now, with a disappearing middle class in many parts of the world including the USA.
I was born in the USA, but as a child I went back to the Philippines every year or so because that is where my parents have family. In high school I had a keen interest in looking at politics of the philippines because I was (and still am kind of a geek on facts and figures). Basically just after WW II the philippines had a large middle class and was one of the stronger economies in asia, but over the years the economy of the philippines went down hill because of mismanagement and basic corruption which was not helped by religious superstitions
because of these factors, the population of the philippines exploded and per capita income is way down. The trends of urbanization are similar to other parts of the world where people move to ghettos (grouped by income and educational levels).
Basically post peak IMHO will follow the example I've seen in many parts of the world, which if nothing is done is people will continue to group not so much by ethnic back ground, but more by social/economic back grounds. When urban super slums meet the reality of decreased natural resources water for example, then I'm pretty sure there will be a some global pandemic (kind of like the 1918 flu) that will cull a number of urban poor and in those areas where tension is high between those that have and those that do not there will be widespread violence like what is happening in daufaur, what happened in the Hutu-Tutsi conflict, what happened in the WW II holocaust, the armenian genocide durening WW I, etc.
The author is right in saying its not the end of the world or more specifically the human race, but many for many in the 1st world, there will be a down ward spiral and they will have to face many challanges like the other 5/6 of humanity now face on a daily basis. Because humanity is living so far out of balance using natural resources like oil and water at an unsustainable rate, along with so many people living way beyond their financial means, nature will eventually find a way to make an equilibrium. _________________ "I'm 100% sure that unsustainable conspicuous consumption of natural basic resources will eventually lead to a proverbial hell on earth for those people who get stuck with the mismanagement mess of mankind not being stewards of the environment!"
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 4:34 am Post subject: Re: Not the end of the world
municipal wrote:
If you met one person and he told you that your child was gvery stupid, and likely would not make anything of herself in this world, and then you met another person who told you your child was very bright and was a "hidden genius" who would you believe?
well, that is why no one will believe the truth.
Of course I'd like to believe him who says my child is a genius, but if my child constantly acted like a retard with no signs of improvement...
I still uphold a moderate optimism, assuming that when the energy crisis and its consequences become too real to deny or explain away, most people will be rational enough to realize that to survive they will have to power-down and cooperate. A real threat of starvation and freezing might turn some people into lunatic zombies, but most will get on with the program (of course there must be some national/regional/local governing body defining and managing this program). At least that's what I hope, because otherwise there will be very meager chances of survival for anyone, unless they are actually self-sufficient (which very few of us are). _________________ "The progress of civilization:
bondage --> spiritual faith --> courage --> liberty --> abundance --> complacency --> apathy --> dependence --> bondage." - Alexander Tyler
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 6:55 am Post subject: Re: Not the end of the world
If we are all doomed and nothing we can do could or would mitigate that bleak outcome then there is zero reason to obsess about that eventuality. In which case turn off your computer, go outside, and enjoy your friends and family while you can! On the otherhand if you prefer doomer porn to real human interaction then pull-up a box of kleenex and enjoy yourself!! _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 2:37 pm Post subject: Re: Not the end of the world
I think people underestimate how much "fat" is in the system. Take food consumption for example in a 1st world nation. As the economy contracts people will eat one step lower and continue going down one step at a time:
step 1 - eating out at fancy restaurants
step 2 - eating out at fast food restaurants or ordering to go
step 3 - NOT eating out at all or only on special occasions
/// eating at home now
step 4 - eating conveniently precooked and prepackaged foods
step 5 - eating prepackaged but not necessarily precooked foods
step 6 - buying only generic brand foods
/// raw ingredients
step 7 - this is what people ate 100 years ago. real labor intensive home cooking from scratch
step 8 - raw ingredients but cheaper: broccoli and carrots NOT peaches and tomatos
step 9 - raw ingredients of the most basic starches: rice, beans, bread, corn
/// out of food. There is nothing cheaper than basic starches
step 10 - grow your own potato garden
step 11 - cannibalism
Right now the average American is at step 2 which is still pretty damn good. I believe in the die-off scenario (in the "long" run) however I find myself having absolutely NO relationship with 50% of other people on this board.
A die-off is a multi-step process so we have a very long long long ways to go.
IMHO it would take about 40 years of economic contraction to push the majority of Americans down to step 6.
Joined: Nov 06, 2007 Posts: 728 Location: Illinois
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 7:33 pm Post subject: Re: Not the end of the world
cube wrote:
I think people underestimate how much "fat" is in the system. Take food consumption for example in a 1st world nation. As the economy contracts people will eat one step lower and continue going down one step at a time:
step 1 - eating out at fancy restaurants
step 2 - eating out at fast food restaurants or ordering to go
step 3 - NOT eating out at all or only on special occasions
/// eating at home now
step 4 - eating conveniently precooked and prepackaged foods
step 5 - eating prepackaged but not necessarily precooked foods
step 6 - buying only generic brand foods
/// raw ingredients
step 7 - this is what people ate 100 years ago. real labor intensive home cooking from scratch
step 8 - raw ingredients but cheaper: broccoli and carrots NOT peaches and tomatos
step 9 - raw ingredients of the most basic starches: rice, beans, bread, corn
/// out of food. There is nothing cheaper than basic starches
step 10 - grow your own potato garden
step 11 - cannibalism
Right now the average American is at step 2 which is still pretty damn good. I believe in the die-off scenario (in the "long" run) however I find myself having absolutely NO relationship with 50% of other people on this board.
A die-off is a multi-step process so we have a very long long long ways to go.
IMHO it would take about 40 years of economic contraction to push the majority of Americans down to step 6.
Well said cube, I think you hit the nail on the head. _________________ The oil barrel is half-full.
Posted: Tue May 27, 2008 7:50 pm Post subject: Re: Not the end of the world
I always liked the ArchDruid Report. I agree with him. It will really feel like the end if you lose your job, or the economy goes sour, but it won't be a zombie doomer crash. It will be more like where I live, but all over the US. Welcome to my world!
"As prices go up, a great many of the poor and disenfranchised worldwide are sliding closer to the edge where destitution turns into starvation. That’s a tragedy, and a moral crisis of no small magnitude. Still, those who think that it announces the imminent collapse of industrial society need to revisit the history of the nineteenth century, when famines racked the Third World with appalling frequency and a good half of the population in many industrial nations lived in desperate poverty. Most people in the industrial world nowadays, I suspect, have forgotten just how much routine deprivation was a part of ordinary life before the brief twentieth-century heyday of cheap abundant energy."
From the Archdruid report. _________________ Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap 
