I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.
Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 7:44 am Post subject: No Peak in Thefts
This is my greatest worry. The economic costs to replace infrastructure stolen by thieves in response to high prices and/or scarcity related to post peak oil resource depletion.
Quote:
The 600-kilogram figures (1,320 pounds) were snatched by thieves this month, and found five days later in a scrap yard in the suburb of Bonteheuwel. Police said they were sold for less than 10,000 rand ($1,247), or 3 percent of their original cost.
Record copper and steel prices are fueling a South African crime wave that's targeted monuments, rail tracks, street lights and cables. With 3,000 unlicensed scrap-metal dealers in Cape Town alone, politicians plan to regulate the industry while companies turn to advertising to dissuade robbers.
Telkom South Africa Ltd. reported losses of $108 million from stolen copper cables in the 10 months through January. Telkom began a television campaign this month showing thieves yanking cables from telephones used by nurses and teachers.
Cable theft almost doubled in the 12 months through March 2007 and the impact, including lost output, on Africa's biggest economy may be 10 times the 228 million-rand cost of replacing the wiring, said Lorenda Nel, project manager at Johannesburg-based Business Against Crime.
Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 7:56 am Post subject: Re: No Peak in Thefts
I agree Mr. Bill and it is the source of most of my pessimism (that and the high-degree theft which plunders our institutions).
The only antidote I know is a sense of community strong enough to exert the social pressure necessary to make people not pillage and (for those who do) a difficulty in finding someone to recycle or buy the goods gained through theft and a willingness of the populace to ostrascized (turn in to the authorities, prison, lynch whatever) those who do participate in the destruction of our shared infrastructure.
Maybe well find that as a nation... if not then we will find it as regions. The question is how far down we have to go before we find that community.
Cur _________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 8:13 am Post subject: Re: No Peak in Thefts
Neighborhood Watch, Crime Stoppers and a rough dose of Frontier Justice! _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 8:21 am Post subject: Re: No Peak in Thefts
Sorry, can't find a link, but I recall reading a historian some years back who had started to suspect that the pillaging of Rome was as much an internal affair as the works of external "barbarians".
Joined: Jun 13, 2007 Posts: 3855 Location: Minniesotuh
Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 8:22 am Post subject: Re: No Peak in Thefts
Explosion levels vacant house in north Minneapolis
By TERRY COLLINS, Star Tribune update: March 27, 2008
No injuries were reported after a house exploded in north Minneapolis late Wednesday.
Two adjacent houses, both vacant, were damaged from the blast shortly after 9 p.m. on the 3200 block of Colfax Av. N.
Thieves stealing copper from gas line in vacant homes
by Brian Johnson Staff Writer
Like many others in the local construction industry, Paul Berg has long been concerned about the growing problem of copper theft.
It was a serious enough problem when theft was limited to construction sites and scrap yards. But when thieves started tearing gas pipes out of private homes in search of a quick buck, the public took notice and concern turned to outrage. …
Natural gas explosions associated with copper theft add to the concern. At least four theft-related explosions and six gas leaks have been reported in vacant homes in Minneapolis and St. Paul since November 2006.
In December 2006, copper water pipes were stolen from a vacant home in north Minneapolis, causing an explosion that tore the roof off the structure. Nobody was injured. …
Stupid, stupid thieves
California Metal Thieves Target Fire Hydrants BEATRIZ E. VALENZUELA
Daily Press, Victorville, Calif
HESPERIA -- Fire hydrants are the newest target for Victor Valley scrap metal thieves.
Thieves are getting about $4 to $6 for the hydrant parts, though it costs $125 plus the cost of labor to replace the part, said Scott Weldy of the Apple Valley Ranchos Water Company. …
We have had more than 100 calls of brass caps and even the brass threading being stolen from fire hydrants in the last six months, making the hydrants inoperable," said Deputy Dan Rodriguez of the San Bernardino County sheriff's Hesperia station. …
House fire? Fire depts may not be able to respond _________________ "RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto
Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 8:29 am Post subject: Re: No Peak in Thefts
MrBill wrote:
Neighborhood Watch, Crime Stoppers and a rough dose of Frontier Justice!
is always to be preferred over the strongman or warlord. _________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
Joined: Jan 03, 2005 Posts: 1205 Location: western Wisconsin
Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 9:27 am Post subject: Re: No Peak in Thefts
In rural Wisconsin, stainless steel bulk tanks (the large milk tanks that a dairy farmer stores and cools milk in, before it is picked up by the truck to go to the processing plant) are being stolen out of the farm's milk houses when the farmers aren't home. Stainless steel scrap is getting valuable.
Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 12:25 pm Post subject: Re: No Peak in Thefts
there are 2 large bronze statues in front of City Hall in SF (each 1 ton +) and a church on Geary with a gold roof (Russian Orthodox, i think). i wonder if either location will get robbed.
video surveillance is one adaptive measure. the way costs on digital video hardware are falling, i wouldn't be surprised to see small cameras built into the large coils of wire (etc.) that are likely targets, for example one $20 camera for every 100 yards of wire. implemented up-front (so the wire has built in transmissions lines for the cameras), or as a retro-fit.
i just saw an ad for the video game, Grand Theft Auto. I wonder when the video game industry will produce something along the lines of "Grand Theft Copper". _________________ http://www.LASIK-Flap.com/ ~ Health Warning about LASIK Eye Surgery
Last edited by pedalling_faster on Fri Mar 28, 2008 4:10 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Feb 01, 2006 Posts: 502 Location: Northern US
Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 12:33 pm Post subject: Re: No Peak in Thefts
Heck with the cameras, bet they start putting RFID's on copper tubing! _________________ "...the problem is today we have unknown unknowns."
Dominique Strauss-Kahn; IMF chief
Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 4:24 pm Post subject: Re: No Peak in Thefts
topcat wrote:
Heck with the cameras, bet they start putting RFID's on copper tubing!
that's a very good idea.
not meaning to rain on the idea ... an RFID could be easily defeated by standard EMI shielding measures, such as wrapping whatever has the RFID in aluminum foil.
but i guess most people who are knowledgeable about EMI shielding are not out stealing lengths of copper wire.
the rise in metal prices might have one minor silver lining. it will encourage people with backyards full of old cars to sell the things for the metal price. and their neighbors who may have complained about what an eyesore the cars are/were, will be happy.
steel is about $600 a ton. i wonder what "dirty steel" (the term in the scrap industry for metal that has paint or inserts of a different metal) goes for. i used to take apart electronic stuff and sell the metal and keep the good parts. then i usually got about 2/3 of the 'clean' aluminum price for 'dirty aluminum', castings with paint and stainless steel inserts, for example. if that ratio is still near-accurate, that would mean $350, maybe $400, for every ton worth of old car.
Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 4:25 am Post subject: Re: No Peak in Thefts
Quote:
At least 15 U.S. states -- from California to New York -- drafted legislation in the past year to deal with the problem, from tighter regulations on scrap metals' traders to tougher penalties for metal theft, local authorities and metals industry officials say.
"In my district, we've got a lot of foreclosed homes and we've got a ton of people who are breaking into these homes, stealing the copper wiring right out of the walls," said Andy Meisner, a lawmaker in Michigan's state Legislature who plans an April 15 hearing on two bills intended to tackle the issue.
"It is a problem that is really affecting us throughout the whole state," he said. "When all the copper is taken out, the house basically becomes a knock-down. It then has a depressing impact on property values."
He said authorities in Hazel Park, a city in his district, ran a clandestine sting operation on a metal trader. "They saw a guy literally walking down the street with bundles of wire in each hand. They saw him walk into a scrap yard and walk out having sold this scrap he had obviously stolen," he said.
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 4329 Location: Graceland
Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 6:59 am Post subject: Re: No Peak in Thefts
I think you've got it wrong here MrBill. I would think that this kind of activity would be great for the economy, like hurricanes, wars and other calamities that create economic activity that would not otherwise occur.
If they caught some of the thieves, they might discover that they were mining company executives and metals sector analysts. _________________
Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2008 7:17 am Post subject: Re: No Peak in Thefts
BigTex wrote:
I think you've got it wrong here MrBill. I would think that this kind of activity would be great for the economy, like hurricanes, wars and other calamities that create economic activity that would not otherwise occur.
If they caught some of the thieves, they might discover that they were mining company executives and metals sector analysts.
It is a common misconception of economic activity as advocated by non-specialists like Naomi Klein in her book Shock Doctrine. Basically, they mistakenly infer that because infrastructure has to be rebuild following a manmade or natural disaster that somehow this is a net positive economic gain. It is not.
Take fire insurance. It is much better for homeowners not to have a fire. Then overtime their insurance premiums would fall. Less would be paid towards that contingency liability leaving more money for the homeowner to spend or to invest. Both of which spur the economy.
If there is a fire then those proceeds have to go to rebuild an asset that was already there. There is no net gain. True they may rebuild it larger or better, but in the absense of the fire, they would have had that extra cash to invest in any case. It is false economics.
There is a reason that wars bankrupt nations and make citizens poorer. Because you are spending money to destroy infrastructure that then has to be rebuild. That benefits a handful of defense contractors at the expense of the many. Those who pay taxes and those that would have collected social benefits as opposed to paying for a war.
It is very sloppy journalism and I do not enjoy that style of writing very much. That money is much better spent rebuilding America's crumbling infrastructure rather than replacing homes that are vandalized. _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
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