I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.
Joined: May 18, 2006 Posts: 4727 Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 9:17 am Post subject: Threat of Blackouts
Quote:
October 14, 2008
By Investor's Business Daily
Energy: The hot months of 2009 might be known as the Summer of Brownouts. And it will be considered a good year, because, unless hundreds of billions are invested in the U.S. power system, the brownouts will turn black.
Blackouts are more than an annoyance. They are costly in terms of economic loss and needless deaths.
Link _________________ Believe those who are seeking the truth. Doubt those who find it.
Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 1:30 pm Post subject: Re: Threat of Blackouts
Somewhere else I saw the Next Gen study quoted in this article. That's why I have put great emphasis on getting off grid this year. I dunno how it fits with PO theory, but my local electric coop people tell me that the grid is in really bad shape, that we can expect power cost to double in a year or so, and that new plants are very hard to get approved. Now we can add that new plants will be harder to finance as well.
Whatever the predictions, I'll feel better when we are off the grid. I believe it is enough of a problem that we have replaced most of our appliances with lower usage / Energy Star models, spent a lot on insulating and weatherizing our home, buying manual workshop tools, a coal forge, a solar PV system, and some other things. That's where most of our free cash went this year. _________________ Local fix-it guy..
Joined: Nov 15, 2007 Posts: 338 Location: US East Coast
Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 3:11 pm Post subject: Re: Threat of Blackouts
While I did not read the NexGen report carefully it seemed to be a rehash of the NERC report, with some pretty graphics.
The good part of the the NexGen report is that they clarified the conclusions that were in the NERC but obscured by careful language.
The bad thing about NexGen is that it was pushing a natural gas agenda.
The base NERC was pretty clear that we got here because we have not been attacking the core problem (generation and transmission) but have been throwing small NG point source generation at the problem. NERC says NG is not the solution.
NERC also noted that the engineering workforce will soon be retiring and replacements are hard to find. _________________ When going through hell, keep going! Churchill
Nothing is ever lost by courtesy. It is the the cheapest of pleasures, costs nothing, and conveys much. E Wiman
I know there’s no solution, so I just enjoy what’s here and I enjoy the journey G Carlin
Posted: Mon Oct 20, 2008 8:31 pm Post subject: Re: Threat of Blackouts
steam_cannon wrote:
2009 would be a little ahead of schedule, but I could see that happening sooner or later...
That assumes that we had no industrial civilization before 1930, which is totally bogus. In addition, world wide energy production has not been standing still or decreasing, but rather going up.
Posted: Mon Oct 20, 2008 8:58 pm Post subject: Re: Threat of Blackouts
That was a nakedly anti-environmentalist screed. I can't figure out if you're posting this as an example of clumsy propaganda or because you actually believe it. _________________ "A little stored food and Bob's your uncle." --TT
Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2008 1:14 am Post subject: Re: Threat of Blackouts
Loki wrote:
That was a nakedly anti-environmentalist screed. I can't figure out if you're posting this as an example of clumsy propaganda or because you actually believe it.
Anti-environmentalist? So calling out BS doomer theories is anti-environmental? If the basic premise of the gorge theory is wrong, what does that say about the rest of it?
Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2008 1:33 am Post subject: Re: Threat of Blackouts
outcast wrote:
Care to explain that?
I went back and read the oildrum article from which you lifted the graph. The author's conclusions seemed relevant to this discussion.
Quote:
I'll now allow myself the liberty and eccentricity of reformulating the Olduvai Theory. After all, without doing this, it wouldn't be fun.
The Olduvai Theory sets the Electrical Civilization to the time frame where Energy per Capita is above 30% of its all time peak. In 2005 that was 12.522 boe/capita and we know this:
* We're at a plateau in Oil production, above any value predicted by any reasonable logistic model;
* Population is still increasing steadily;
* Peak Oil will highly likely arrive in the next 5 years (if it hasn't yet).
So we can assume that 2005 is very likely to be a peak year in Energy/Capita. Thirty percent of 12.522 is about 3.756, a value first crossed in 1950. In the Oil-driven world scenario this value is crossed again in 2044. I guess we can now reformulate the Olduvai Theory:
Electrical Civilization can be described by a single pulse waveform of duration X, as measured by average energy-use per person per year.
If it turns out that Oil drives the production of energy from other sources, the life-expectancy of Electrical Civilization is less than one-hundred years: i.e., X < 100.
In case Oil isn't the driving force behind production from other energy sources, the life-expectancy of Electrical Civilization is greater than or equal to one-hundred years: i.e., X >= 100. In such case X will be limited by a yet to be assessed upper bound, set by the decline of other-than-oil finite energy sources: i.e., X < U.
Homework: find a value for U.
Conclusions
The Olduvai Theory shows us something very simple, without renewable energy sources our modern way of life will end some time in the future. I'm an optimist and I believe we can drive away from the road to Olduvai. We can do it by controlling population or by using other forms of energy like Solar and Wind. Of course Oil will be hard to replace, but maybe cellulosic ethanol or something like it can help us in the long run.
Duncan introduced a very important concept, energy per capita, a measure of our Civilization. It's something that let us get a better understanding of the place Energy has in our life, and how can it affect our Future.
From the Olduvai Theory we learned that modeling resource depletion is also modeling population, and that there is a strong link between the two.
Link _________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2008 1:44 am Post subject: Re: Threat of Blackouts
Good counterpoint. I'm still somewhat skeptical 1.) because this assumes nothing will change in 40 years and 2.) there have been so many predictions like this over the past 60 years, all of them were supposed to have come true by now and none of them did.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3613 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2008 5:48 am Post subject: Re: Threat of Blackouts
outcast wrote:
Loki wrote:
That was a nakedly anti-environmentalist screed. I can't figure out if you're posting this as an example of clumsy propaganda or because you actually believe it.
Anti-environmentalist? So calling out BS doomer theories is anti-environmental? If the basic premise of the gorge theory is wrong, what does that say about the rest of it?
He was referring to the article in the OP, not your comments.
I'm not so concerned about the future of electrical grids, assuming we ration things thoughtfully. There's a lot of very obvious fat to trim. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
The Dude Is Not In: Leave A Message After The Beep.
Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2008 9:31 am Post subject: Re: Threat of Blackouts
Thanks for clarifying Dude.
From the article:
Quote:
"The single biggest threat to system reliability," says the NextGen report, "is opposition from well-funded environmental groups that oppose and file lawsuits against virtually every new electricity project proposed."
Report authors say at least $300 billion will be needed to update the system. But as long as policymakers let themselves be bullied and bought off by environmental groups, it might as well be $300 trillion.
"Single greatest threat"? Price increase of 3 orders of magnitude? What a bunch of hysterical nonsense. As I said, sloppy propaganda. 3rd-grade level stuff, really. _________________ "A little stored food and Bob's your uncle." --TT
Posted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 12:06 am Post subject: Re: Threat of Blackouts
TheDude wrote:
outcast wrote:
Loki wrote:
That was a nakedly anti-environmentalist screed. I can't figure out if you're posting this as an example of clumsy propaganda or because you actually believe it.
Anti-environmentalist? So calling out BS doomer theories is anti-environmental? If the basic premise of the gorge theory is wrong, what does that say about the rest of it?
He was referring to the article in the OP, not your comments.
I'm not so concerned about the future of electrical grids, assuming we ration things thoughtfully. There's a lot of very obvious fat to trim.
Posted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 1:16 am Post subject: Re: Threat of Blackouts
How does Demand Destruction figure in to this equation?
With more foreclosure of McMansions, they will go off the demand side of the grid. No A/C, no lights to those houses. With more HUGE electricty hogs like Automotive plants being shut down, they go off the grid. As Malls shut down, you won't have to run the A/C in them either.
It seems to me that capacity we currently have will be plenty, since most of the places that use elcetricity won't be functioning, and the consumer won't have a job to pay the electric bill.
Like the rest of the commodities, eventually here they have to just GIVE it away. Like Food Stamps, you get Electricity Stamps. The Gooberment takes over the power grid and keeps it running on a Socialist/Fascist paradigm.
There won't be NEAR as many things lit up, but there is plenty of generating capacity around for what few things will be lit up. Like Gasoline, the Demand for it will drop off a cliff as people lose their jobs and businesses go out of business.
Joined: Nov 15, 2007 Posts: 338 Location: US East Coast
Posted: Wed Oct 22, 2008 6:24 pm Post subject: Re: Threat of Blackouts
Reverse
While I think you are onto something there are other factors in the mix.
First to strengthen your idea I believe that we do have reserve capacity beyond demand destruction. For example we could save some simply by shutting off the damn lights in the office buildings and other commercial "accent" or "architectural" lighting. Put photocells on parking lot lights and the like. It would be a couple of percent. However this only address one of the NERC findings.
The genisis of the above report was largely the NERC Long Term Reliability Assessment
NERC
This report is written in bureaucratic language and it takes some work to tease out the truth. But it is there if you read carefully.
They note that we substantially got into this mess by deferring capital improvements for the past 20 years or so. We have been relying on small natural gas generating facilities to make up the load.
Below is their summary findings. Demand Destruction/Excess Capacity only address part of #1.
Finding 1: Electric capacity margins continue to decline — action needed to avoid shortage. Overall committed capacity margins improved by approximately two percent in the U.S. over the last year, but margins in some areas decreased. Several areas established forward capacity market, which will be relied upon to provide the necessary, new resources to maintain reliability.
Finding 2: Construction of new transmission is still slow and continues to face obstacles Almost 2,000 miles of transmission were added to U.S. the bulk power system in the past year representing a little over one percent increase. Two draft DOE National Interest Electric Transmission Corridors were identified.
Finding 3: Fuel supply and its delivery to electric generation are vital to maintaining reliability Organizations in Florida, California and the ISO New England – all representing areas with high dependence on natural gas fuel -- performed studies identifying specific concerns and courses of action to mitigate the risks of supply and delivery interruptions. In ISO New England, 2,300 MW of single-fuel, gas-fired capacity was converted to dual-fuel capability.
Finding 4: Aging workforce presents challenges to future reliability. Industry action is urgently needed to meet the expected 25 percent increase in demand for engineering professionals by 2015. Enhanced recruitment and outreach efforts through consortia, partnerships with local colleges, and increasing R&D support of university programs are vital for developing future
industry talent.
#1 - Demand Destruction = Good
Old deteriorating and polluting plants = BAD
#2 - Congress is finally getting on the issue = Good
Success relies upon congress = BADDDD
#3 - Natural Gas dependence = BAD
#4 - Loss of technical expertise = BAD
See also
Skills Gap Thread _________________ When going through hell, keep going! Churchill
Nothing is ever lost by courtesy. It is the the cheapest of pleasures, costs nothing, and conveys much. E Wiman
I know there’s no solution, so I just enjoy what’s here and I enjoy the journey G Carlin
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