Energy Industry Positioning for Endgame

ExtractionEngineer

Yesterday I was in a corporate strategy briefing with some top and mid level technology staff of a major oil services company. About 100 in attendance. Ultimately the discussion turned to pursuit of some alternative/non-traditional forms of energy...and what that might entail, technically speaking. I won't speak about what was being discussed for fear of revealing inside info...but the intro to the presentation session floored me.

Within the first five minutes we were told:
1. Canterel is in decline.
2. Gawhar is in decline.
3. Light sweet crude is in decline.

This is not strange to hear at peakoil.com or even coming out of my own mouth. To hear it so plainly in this setting, though, was...well...surreal.

I got the strangest feeling, though, that most of the room was experiencing cognitive disonence. Luckily, I got the last question. Here is what I asked:

Will ________ (name of "opportunity" we'd been discussing) or anything else be able to offset the decline of light crude oil?

The answer...a very blunt NO.

The sentiment of the comment that followed was basically...these are the facts...and the thing we have been discussing is our next move.

Later that evening I went to the grocery store to pick up some strawberries. The shelf looked a little emptier than it usually does. I figured it was my imagination. An 80 year old (guess??) lady was standing next to me and struck up a conversation with the old man behind her.

"Someday soon I expect to see the shelves empty" she said.

"Sooner than you think" he replied.

It is the increase of stuff like this that has moved my personal preps into high gear. Starting to feel like were living in a powder keg waiting for someone to light the match.

Every man for himself.

Shannymara

abelardlindsay

emersonbiggins

Time to buy more ammo.
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mos6507

TheDude

cipi604

EE, good to have people like you and many others on this forum. The canary in the peak-oil tunnel is starting to die... aviation industry, prepare for the crash landing..

ExtractionEngineer

Dude,
I agree that point 1 is old news. I have also been wondering how anyone could "know" that Ghawar is in decline...to a greater degree of certainty than we "know" on this board. I agree that it is, but would be hard pressed to prove it beyond all reasonable doubt.

Also, as far as the name of the company...I'm not saying. Sorry if that makes me come off as a little paranoid, but part of my post-peak-oil strategy is to keep my job longer than most of the general population. Throwing my employers name around on internet message boards does not fit well with that strategy. Hope you can understand.

mos6507,
I don't know what conclusions others make. Honestly, I think most people intuitively understand it is very bad...and some of their brains just "change the subject" at that point. I know it took me a few YEARS to go from understanding of the problem to actively preparing my life for the ramifications. Maybe I'm slower than most at peakoil.com....but I definitely think there will be a time delay between the general public understanding peak oil and the gp changing their lives intentionally because of it.

Most likely scenario IMO....one day we will wake up and everyone will be panicking.

seahorse · Expert Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2230 Location: Arkansas

EE,

I've been on these threads awhile now. I say that so you will understand my question is a legitimate question and not trying to cause trouble.

All the points you mentioned have been discussed on this site for some time.

(1) How do you know the info you all received has better sources than what's reported here? For example, Ghawar in decline?

(2) Why do you think your company, after all these years, suddenly get interested in PO?

ExtractionEngineer

Seahorse,

I have been reading your posts for years, and some of them were instrumental in pushing me over the edge to get into raising goats. No worries.

1. I don't think that the company does have better info than what we have here....although I could be wrong about that. The sources are probably the same. I was just pointing out that business cases are now being done with the presupposition of peak oil. This was the first direct evidence I had personally seen of that in my company. One could argue that the upper echelons of oil majors have known for decades. Otherwise, why not build more refineries. That is speculation, though, because if the upper echelons did know it they did NOT advertise that portion of their knowledge down the chain of command. My point was that, on the inside of the oil game, the cat is out of the bag.

2. Plain and simple. This business is cut throat. Now that the down slope is imminent, some of these non-traditional alternatives are becoming the ONLY growth markets left. Don't get me wrong, there is no "company" interest in peak oil beyond how it impacts the bottom line and what strategies will profit the company best in the end.

These companies grew up in a dog eat dog atmosphere, just for a while there was enough food to go around for everyone.

seahorse · Expert Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2230 Location: Arkansas

EE,

This is pretty powerful information, bc, as you point out, it represents a turning point. Its interesting how after all these years the public, and now as you report, the energy industry, are recognizing PO. We've all wondered what would happen after society "wakes up." I guess we'll all know in about 12 months. I am glad to hear the energy industry is recognizing the issue. Maybe, just maybe, it they start putting some thought and resources into it, we can start finding some solutions. Too hopeful? I have to be hopeful. I have three kids.

Thanks for the post EE. This real world info marks a significant point in the PO timeline.

roccman

Kingcoal

So much for the Saudi output boost.
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mos6507