I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2729 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 12:40 am Post subject: Do We Need an Energy "Manhattan Project"?
Do We Need an Energy "Manhattan Project"?
Quote:
Can Big Government really solve the energy crisis? It would be nice to believe that. While America has a much-deserved reputation as the land of free-market-loving entrepreneurs, that doesn't mean Uncle Sam can't occasionally take the lead and achieve some pretty impressive results. Two that quickly come to mind are the Manhattan Project ($20 billion in today's dollars), which developed the atomic bomb, and the Apollo space program ($100 billion in today's dollars), which eventually put 12 men on the surface of the moon.
"Washington to the rescue" may be the classic liberal rallying cry, but this doesn't seem to be a Democrat-Republican, left-right issue. You can find folks across the political spectrum—Obama, Hillary Clinton, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Thomas Friedman, Sam Brownback —who seem to think a multibillion-dollar, government-led research and regulatory effort is just what is needed right now to develop clean energy sources in America. This, for instance, is what Romney told me during his unsuccessful campaign for the GOP presidential nomination:
Of course, a crash government program might be easily justified if the planet's climate was about to take a terrible turn for the worse or the most frightening of the "peak oil" projections looked to be coming true. But if that's the case, we just might need aliens to sends us some blueprints.
usnews _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 1:07 am Post subject: Re: Do We Need an Energy "Manhattan Project"?
Yes we do. But let's not stop at a couple middling-sized cities. Let's blow up the whole world.
The MP was awesome--a bunch of really smart guys sitting around for weeks and months on end, trying to figure out the best way to evaporate a bunch of women, children and other non-combatants. What a high point for the human race. We should try to emulate it in everything we do.
But let's do expand the scope a bit. We can blow up lots more than a couple cities with energy. With our new energy manhattan projects, we're going to figure out how we can fry every last scrap of living tissue on the f'n planet----yeah! Go, manhattan!
Sarcasm off
Can't we please, please come up with another example of focused intellectual effort than a plan to melt the flesh off of tens of thousands of living children. Why choose such a horror as your paragon of planning. Are we all really that hopelessly lost and sick?
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 1:13 am Post subject: Re: Do We Need an Energy "Manhattan Project"?
Wait a minute, I take that all back. It doesn't matter that we fried all those innocents in a flash, 'cause they weren't really people, they were just gooks, flat noses, japs, not humans. No real harm done. Let's get on with it.
(interpretation for the sarcasm-impaired: Using the name MP is not just morally loathsome, it is deeply bigotted and racist.)
Joined: May 07, 2007 Posts: 434 Location: Adelaide, South Australia
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 4:49 am Post subject: Re: Do We Need an Energy "Manhattan Project"?
dohboi wrote:
Wait a minute, I take that all back. It doesn't matter that we fried all those innocents in a flash, 'cause they weren't really people, they were just gooks, flat noses, japs, not humans. No real harm done. Let's get on with it.
(interpretation for the sarcasm-impaired: Using the name MP is not just morally loathsome, it is deeply bigotted and racist.)
The article was written within the U.S. of A.
Honestly, what were you expecting? _________________ "That the cream cannot help but always rise up to the top, well I say, <censored by peakoil.com> floats"
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 4376 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 5:23 am Post subject: Re: Do We Need an Energy "Manhattan Project"?
dohboi wrote:
Can't we please, please come up with another example of focused intellectual effort than a plan to melt the flesh off of tens of thousands of living children. Why choose such a horror as your paragon of planning. Are we all really that hopelessly lost and sick?
Sorry to burst your bubble, but a lot of our best technology was invented through military R&D including computers and the internet.
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 4376 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 5:31 am Post subject: Re: Do We Need an Energy "Manhattan Project"?
dohboi wrote:
Wait a minute, I take that all back. It doesn't matter that we fried all those innocents in a flash, 'cause they weren't really people, they were just gooks, flat noses, japs, not humans. No real harm done. Let's get on with it.
(interpretation for the sarcasm-impaired: Using the name MP is not just morally loathsome, it is deeply bigotted and racist.)
I don't know why you are so hung up on what motivated people back in the 1940s. Political correctness is one of the first things that will disappear in a post peak-oil world as people focus on practical concerns.
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 7:08 am Post subject: Re: Do We Need an Energy "Manhattan Project"?
dohboi wrote:
Can't we please, please come up with another example of focused intellectual effort than a plan to melt the flesh off of tens of thousands of living children. Why choose such a horror as your paragon of planning. Are we all really that hopelessly lost and sick?
I love the smell of burning flesh. It smells like victory! (With apologies to the film, Apocalypse Now.)
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 7:26 am Post subject: Re: Do We Need an Energy "Manhattan Project"?
dohboi wrote:
..The MP was awesome--a bunch of really smart guys sitting around for weeks and months on end, trying to figure out the best way to evaporate a bunch of women, children and other non-combatants. What a high point for the human race. We should try to emulate it in everything we do.
...another one of those snarky, juvenile takes on history that are so popular around here. Anything to help dumb down the crowd while appearing facile!
The first, most important science leading to the atomic bomb was from Albert Einstein's E=MC2 equation which he published in 1905. Einstein, of course, was a famous peacenik and a quintessential knowledge-seeker. To give you an idea of just how enormous a realization E=MC2 is, it's been estimated from the equation that 4.5 pounds of sunlight strike the Earth each day.
It couldn't escape the attention of even the most doltish scientific observers that a sudden release of immense energy in a fission reaction would essentially be the biggest bomb ever created. People had decades to realize this. The Germans were working on fission, the British, Russians and Japanese were interested in it. Everyone was aware of its possibility.
And by the late 30's there was a serious war on. So it became a race to achieve actual fission. Unavoidable, it would have been stupid and negligent not to have entered this race. The US effort was something that was motivated by intense fear perhaps more than vengeance or worldly national ambition. And thus, the Manhattan Project was initiated.
It was simply a case of someone establishing a scientific theory which, with a great deal of concentrated effort, led to a practical application. Soon after the Manhattan Project proved the theory, more concentrated effort led to the controlled release of energy from a fissile reaction in the form of nuclear reactors - a largely peaceful application, if not a perfect energy solution.
Any civilization advancing through knowledge of the properties of the universe would encounter the phenomenon of nuclear fission.
The idea of a bomb occurs just as easily to the mind as the idea of cheap energy - it's just a matter of engineering the rate at which one wants to release the energy. We would see the same sort of thing occur today with other theories and nascent technologies if a concentrated effort were brought to bear upon them.
But advanced technology isn't popular here at PO.com.
I wonder what kind of world we would live in if the technology-haters had their way? What level of technology do they find acceptable? Where do the neo-Luddites draw the line with the use of technology or exploration of the properties of the universe? Is there something more moral about a horse-drawn plow than an electric tractor? Is nano-solar technology less moral because it also uses quantum mechanical properties of matter?
If you hate technology, you pretty much have declared that you hate human beings. Because technology is simply problem-solving at a high level of cognition. And if you hate a high level of cognition, you admit that you would prefer that the universe never became aware of itself and its own properties. You admit that you would prefer that you and your kind had never come into existence in the first place and that it would have been best if animals had continued on as the planet's intellectual giants - forever dumbly going about their futile, instinctual business. Never seeing nor appreciating themselves. _________________ Documentary: "Oil, Smoke & Mirrors" Engineers Question 911
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 7:34 am Post subject: Re: Do We Need an Energy "Manhattan Project"?
Sounds like youngsters talking. Lest we forget, the point of bombing Hiroshima and Nagasaki was to bring an expeditious end to the war. It was predicted that if American troops had invaded Japan, our casualties would have been very heavy.
Did you not know that the Japanese vowed to fight until "every man, woman and child" was dead? Have you never heard (or been told) what our American troops endured in Japanese POW camps? Well, that's the American soldiers that survived.
It was a horrible war and Truman did the RIGHT thing in finding a way to make it end. I know that that's a PC incorrect thing to say, but I'm also a student of history. The Japanese were formidable enemies who would stop at nothing to win the war.
Was that your grandfather whose life was saved by the atomic bomb? Further, both Nagasaki and Hiroshima were military targets with civilian populations. And lastly, before bombing, the US dropped leaflets warning the Japanese about these bombs and urging them to surrender. On both occasions, they refused, until after the SECOND bomb was dropped.
BOTH of my parents were WW2 veterans and they enlisted in the war for "the duration plus six months." They were called "The Lost Generation" because their youth was taken from them by the war. When Mom and Dad enlisted (after Pearl Harbor was ATTACKED by the Japanese), Hitler looked unstoppable. No one knew when and IF we would win the war. What do you think would have happened if Hitler got the A-bomb first? Or Hirohito?
My parent's generation was one that demonstrated great moral courage and how I wish more of today's whining youngsters had a smidge of the character exhibited by their elders.
We've seen 50 years of unparalleled prosperity in this country due in part to the outcome of World War 2. Don't write off the A-bomb before you do a little more reading in the history books.
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 7:39 am Post subject: Re: Do We Need an Energy "Manhattan Project"?
I've heard this term used a lot over the years. What I would like to bring out is the context of the Manhattan Project. The Manhattan Project was a focused group of scientists working in secret, toward a specific goal for which most of the science had already been done. To be more specific atomic fission had already been done in the lab and the Manhattan Project's goal was to build an atomic fission bomb. Another thing I'd like to point out is that due to the secrecy only a limited number of people were working on the project.
Now, fast forward to today's calls for a "Manhattan Project" to solve the energy crisis. Ok, what EXACTLY do you want the project to do? Don't give some nebulous goal like "solve our problem". Secondly, since the energy crisis is not a secret and lots of people all over the world are working on it, which 99.9% of them do you want to stop so that we can get down to a small group like we used in the Manhattan Project? Also, which streams of research do you want to stop so that we can concentrate on just one?
The bottom line is that research is happening all over the world on thousands of different items that will help to solve the problem. There are tens of thousands of people doing this research bringing to bear an unbelieveable amount of intelligence and creativity. The only place for a Manhattan Project style effort would be if some proven science shows that something is possible but requires a large focused effort to bring it to fruition.
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 7:39 am Post subject: Re: Do We Need an Energy "Manhattan Project"?
The end product notwithstanding, the Manhattan project consisted of basically commandeering the brightest people in the country, along with a lot of technicians, mechanics, support people etc. and trucking them all out into the middle of nowhere New Mexico, and throwing as much money at them as it would take to build something that would go "boom".
The urgency was that they knew that the Germans were doing the same thing, and they were afraid they would get there first.
Assuming you could get the political will together to do this (dubious) and find enough money (borrowing from future generations) and find enough scientists and engineers willing to do it without basically putting them under house arrest (questionable) you could probably do it. It would have been much easier in the weeks immediately after 9-11. Right now, we cannot develop a national consensus in the theories of evolution, plate techtonics, or climate change, so the odds of being able to accomplish this are actually close to zero.
Joined: Dec 08, 2004 Posts: 1633 Location: Nez Perce Nation
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 9:12 am Post subject: Re: Do We Need an Energy "Manhattan Project"?
My father flew in B24's in WW II. He was based in the Pacific and would have been right in the thick of any prelude to a land based invasion of Japan. The A Bombs took tens of thousands of lives but they made the Japanese surrender before we had to invade; thereby saving hundreds of thousands of American lives. My dad could have been one of those lives lost and I would not be here today.
I praise those heroic scientists of the Manhattan Project.
Now to get back to the original intent of this thread.
Yes, we need a Manhattan Project type effort in the area of energy research and also in transportation infrastructure. Bring back the trains! For those of you who didn't get to travel by train in America, and I would think that is most of you, let me tell you it is a very pleasant, all be it slower, experience. Much nicer than travel by car or bus and a ton more relaxing than travel by air. _________________ "Modern Agriculture is the use of land to convert petroleum into food."
-- Albert Bartlett
"It will be a dark time. But for those who survive, I suspect it will be rather exciting."
-- James Lovelock
Last edited by DomusAlbion on Sat May 31, 2008 10:07 am; edited 1 time in total
Joined: May 18, 2006 Posts: 4727 Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 9:13 am Post subject: Re: Do We Need an Energy "Manhattan Project"?
After browsing through the stock holders report from Exxon, without a Manhattan Project to solve our energy needs, we are buggered, right quick.........
Joined: Nov 16, 2007 Posts: 304 Location: Rural Western Idaho
Posted: Sat May 31, 2008 9:57 am Post subject: Re: Do We Need an Energy "Manhattan Project"?
Amen to what Hope_ful posted above.
By the way, someone here said the Manhattan Project comprised all those people (scientists, et al) being concentrated in New Mexico. It is indicative of (1) how effective the level of secrecy was, and (2) how uninformed people remain after all these decades, that most people STILL don't know that Richland (Hanford Atomic Works), Washington and Oak Ridge, Tennesee were integral to the Manhattan Project.
It was a "space out of time" to have been born and raised in Richland, a true government town, where NO ONE talked about the work he/she was doing "out in the area." It was also probably the safest place on earth to be living during our growing up years (50's and 60's), in terms of crime -- because there was virtually none. The government saw to that. During the Cold War era, though, it was also one of the most dangerous places to be living in terms of being an international target, because of the active weapons grade plutonium being processed there.
My husband and I agree that you had to have been there to understand the unique atmosphere -- that we took for granted, because we were born into it. One of the reasons we ended up married after previous unsuccessful marriages for both of us is that we didn't have to try to explain that life to one another, because we both had lived it - and it is so much a part of who we are. It couldn't be clearly explained - although some people have given it a good try. (Amazon has a couple of books written by people from Richland, about Richland.)
Anyway, it was a 100% team effort, with zero tolerance policies for many things. And it worked.
So the idea of doing a "Manhattan Project" type effort now might be wishful thinking, but ... well ... read Hope_ful's post above.
No one thought it could work back then, either.
Lumpy _________________ Jackie Joyner-Kersee: "It is better to look forward & prepare, than to look back & regret."
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