Deffeyes: $300/bbl=world's economy in smoldering ruins

Cashmere · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Mar 27, 2008 Posts: 1971

I don't understand the graph.
Can you link to the original?
_________________
Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.

MD

RdSnt

It's a very useful graph. The 3 curves represent a specific percentage of global GDP. The cost of oil is then measured against GDP. So at the moment oil cost represents 6.5 percentage of GDP.

What isn't mentioned is that this graph provides an unambiguous proof of peak oil.
Price of oil is moderated by increases in supply. Normally as prices go up supply goes up.
Now think of the point at which production can no longer increase as a wall. Price meets that wall and has two directions it can go in. If we abandon oil then the price can go down, but if oil is essential (which it is) then the price can only go up.

Now, one more step, consider that the wall moves. In the case of the graph, to the left which represents a decline in supply.
Even though there will be some demand destruction due to high prices, since supply is going to decline the wall move to compensate for the drop in supply. Thus, prices will continue to rise.
Plus there is a limit to demand destruction because the majority of the fuel is consumed in essential services.
_________________
Gravity is not a force, it is a boundary layer.
Everything is coincident.
Love: the state of suspended anticipation.
To get any appreciable distance from the Earth in
a sensible amount of time, you must lie.

TheDude

arretium

MD

This chart tells the story. You all need to reflect on its implications.
_________________
"It's still all about energy!"

Schultz: I see NOTHING! I know NOTHING!

md@peakoil.com

MD

This one is stickied. Great catch Dude and much thanks Ken Deffeyes.
ERoEI right in in your face people. Wake up. The horizon, she's receding very fast now.
_________________
"It's still all about energy!"

Schultz: I see NOTHING! I know NOTHING!

md@peakoil.com

essex

Thanks for the graph !

syrac818 · Heavy Crude Joined: Jun 01, 2005 Posts: 113

MD

TheDude

Oh...that graph!

Makes me think of those movies where you see a submarine starting to capsize.

"One ping only!"
_________________
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
The Dude Is Not In: Leave A Message After The Beep.

cube · Fusion Joined: Mar 12, 2005 Posts: 3775

TreebeardsUncle · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jun 15, 2006 Posts: 598

Saw an article in the SF Chronicle a few days ago that said over the past few (maybe 4 years),supply has come up maybe 1.5%, demand at least twice that much (somewhere around 3.6 to 3.9%), but price has come up at least 300% from $45 to $135/barrel. That means that the ratio of price increase to supply increase is on the order of 200 to 1. What does that tell you all?

wisconsin_cur · Moderator Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 3211