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Homesteader
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Apr 12, 2007
Posts: 1185
Location: Central NC
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 Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 9:53 am Post subject: Re: EIA projects energy, fossil fuel demand to grow 50% by 2 |
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Yeah, and renewables "saving the day".
"_A 2.1 percent annual growth in renewable energy for electricity generation, but mostly because of increases in the use of hydroelectric power in developing countries."
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KingM
Heavy Crude
Joined: Aug 30, 2005
Posts: 277
Location: Second Vermont Republic
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| Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 10:03 am Post subject: Re: EIA projects energy, fossil fuel demand to grow 50% by 2 |
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| Drifter wrote: |
So much for conservation and power-down.  |
If we bring oil shales and hydrates online then sure, those predictions make sense. If not, I don't think there are enough fossil fuels left out there to increase our usage that much. Maybe, maybe with coal, but we'll be eating the seed corn by then if that's the case. |
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Ludi
NeoMaster
Joined: Dec 27, 2004
Posts: 13064
Location: naive idiot fantasy world
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| Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 10:18 am Post subject: Re: EIA projects energy, fossil fuel demand to grow 50% by 2 |
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| Drifter wrote: | | environmentally troublesome fossil fuels |
Merely "troublesome" and not "deadly" apparently.
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Tyler_JC
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Joined: Sep 25, 2004
Posts: 4667
Location: Boston, MA
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| Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 10:38 am Post subject: Re: EIA projects energy, fossil fuel demand to grow 50% by 2 |
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| Homesteader wrote: | Yeah, and renewables "saving the day".
"_A 2.1 percent annual growth in renewable energy for electricity generation, but mostly because of increases in the use of hydroelectric power in developing countries." |
So the EIA is predicting a crash in the global renewable energy industry?
I'm going to call their bluff.
Growth Rates 2006
Wind 25-30%
Solar PV 50-60%
Solar Thermal 15-20%
Biofuels 15-20%
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Homesteader
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Apr 12, 2007
Posts: 1185
Location: Central NC
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| Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 10:51 am Post subject: Re: EIA projects energy, fossil fuel demand to grow 50% by 2 |
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| Tyler_JC wrote: | | Homesteader wrote: | Yeah, and renewables "saving the day".
"_A 2.1 percent annual growth in renewable energy for electricity generation, but mostly because of increases in the use of hydroelectric power in developing countries." |
So the EIA is predicting a crash in the global renewable energy industry?
I'm going to call their bluff.
Growth Rates 2006
Wind 25-30%
Solar PV 50-60%
Solar Thermal 15-20%
Biofuels 15-20% |
I believe the EIA is saying as a percent of total global energy demand, not percentage growth of alternative energy. Apples and oranges.
Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong tho'.
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"The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…"
Sir Winston Churchill |
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Tyler_JC
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Location: Boston, MA
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| Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 12:15 pm Post subject: Re: EIA projects energy, fossil fuel demand to grow 50% by 2 |
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| Quote: | | _A 2.1 percent annual growth in renewable energy for electricity generation, but mostly because of increases in the use of hydroelectric power in developing countries. |
This statement is demonstrably false.
The growth rate will be far greater than 2.1% and the total amount of energy provided as a percentage of energy use will also be greater than 2.1% (it's greater than 2.1% already!).
So neither the apple nor the orange is a fruit.
Argh, now I'm mixing metaphors.
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Pops
Moderator
Joined: Apr 03, 2004
Posts: 6942
Location: My Grandkids' Farm
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| Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 1:01 pm Post subject: Re: EIA projects energy, fossil fuel demand to grow 50% by 2 |
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I don't doubt Desire will grow as they predict.
Of course the other half of demand is ability to pay, not sure that part will keep up.
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frankthetank
Fusion
Joined: Sep 16, 2004
Posts: 4836
Location: Southwest WI
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| Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 1:24 pm Post subject: Re: EIA predicts energy, fossil fuel demand to grow 50% by 2 |
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This is the best part...
| Quote: | | while oil prices may surge as high as $186 a barrel in 2030, the government's Energy Information Administration said Wednesday. |
WTF??? Give me a break. These bunch of clowns must just sit around the office laughing with their big shoes on. The probably all pull down 6 figures to come up with this BS.
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frankthetank
Fusion
Joined: Sep 16, 2004
Posts: 4836
Location: Southwest WI
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| Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 1:55 pm Post subject: Re: EIA predicts energy, fossil fuel demand to grow 50% by 2 |
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| Quote: | For 2020, EIA forecast a world oil price of more than $22/bbl ($US 1999), similar to the projection in 1999. The average wellhead price of gas would reach more than $3/Mcf in 2020, pushed by expected demand growth for gas, primarily for electricity generation.
US oil demand, said EIA, will grow at 1.3%/year--to 25.8 million b/d in 2020 from 19.5 million b/d in 1999--led by demand growth in transportation that currently accounts for about 70% of US petroleum consumption.
US crude oil production in the agency's forecast will decline at 0.7%/year during 1999-2020 to 5.1 million b/d, a drop of 200,000 b/d from its 1999 forecast. |
This was from Feb of 2001...
A$$ Clowns...
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TheDude
Expert
Joined: Apr 06, 2006
Posts: 3613
Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
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| Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 6:12 pm Post subject: Re: EIA predicts energy, fossil fuel demand to grow 50% by 2 |
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Come on, guys. The EIA is a branch of the Federal government, of course it's scenarios are implausible variants on BAU. You're not really expecting to project massive use of bicycles are you? Especially in the Bush era.
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Homesteader
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Apr 12, 2007
Posts: 1185
Location: Central NC
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| Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 6:30 pm Post subject: Re: EIA projects energy, fossil fuel demand to grow 50% by 2 |
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| Tyler_JC wrote: | | Quote: | | _A 2.1 percent annual growth in renewable energy for electricity generation, but mostly because of increases in the use of hydroelectric power in developing countries. |
This statement is demonstrably false.
The growth rate will be far greater than 2.1% and the total amount of energy provided as a percentage of energy use will also be greater than 2.1% (it's greater than 2.1% already!).
So neither the apple nor the orange is a fruit.
Argh, now I'm mixing metaphors. |
I was simply basing it on their numbers, not debating the validity of them.
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"The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…"
Sir Winston Churchill |
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Tyler_JC
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Joined: Sep 25, 2004
Posts: 4667
Location: Boston, MA
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| Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 7:16 pm Post subject: Re: EIA predicts energy, fossil fuel demand to grow 50% by 2 |
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Fair enough, I didn't mean to pick a fight.
The EIA and its predictions are...not so good.
Think about it. If these people were so good at predicting energy prices...why aren't they working for a hedge fund?
Why aren't they retired and drinking Mojitos in Malibu with a Swedish super model under each arm? 
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yesplease
Fission
Joined: Oct 03, 2006
Posts: 2482
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| Posted: Wed Jun 25, 2008 8:20 pm Post subject: Re: EIA predicts energy, fossil fuel demand to grow 50% by 2 |
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| Tyler_JC wrote: | Fair enough, I didn't mean to pick a fight.
The EIA and its predictions are...not so good. |
They ain't all bad. Just long term they tend to be of. Course... How hard is it to look at gasoline futures and "predict" what the price will be in a few months? 
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| Professor Membrane wrote: | | Not now son! I'm making...TOAST! |
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frankthetank
Fusion
Joined: Sep 16, 2004
Posts: 4836
Location: Southwest WI
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| Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 8:24 am Post subject: Re: EIA predicts energy, fossil fuel demand to grow 50% by 2 |
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I would think oil production in 2030 will be roughly half of what it is right now... If the slope down is a lot sharper then the slope up (which i believe to be the case).
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patience
Expert
Joined: Jan 04, 2008
Posts: 1664
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| Posted: Thu Jun 26, 2008 1:42 pm Post subject: Re: EIA predicts energy, fossil fuel demand to grow 50% by 2 |
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Demand there will be, but supply is a whole different thing.
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