What will kill the most people in the die off

wisconsin_cur · Moderator Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 3211

A new thread was suggested and I have the time to type it up so here it goes. Lay down your money and place your bets. What will kill the most people as the human population recedes to a more sustainable level?

Of course it is a guess but I think that I would have to go with starvation/dehydration. If the organization breaks down those are the first two things that will get us (depending upon where you live and the time of year).
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UltraViciousBudgie

Starvation/dehydration. And the usual list of diseases due to breakdown of sanitation and weakened immune systems due to starvation.

I don't expect massive dieoffs in nations with relatively low population densities and plenty of arable land. Once the energy fat is shed (private automobiles for us peons, Las Vegas, car suburbs, etc.) there will be enough energy for rationed food and basic sanitation.

Quicksilver · Tar Sands Joined: Jul 30, 2005 Posts: 81

Modern medicine is keeping a significant portion of the world's population alive. In a worst-case scenario millions of people would no longer have access to life saving medications for asthma, diabetes, cardiovascular disease etc.

A quarter of the world's population could die within a very short period. Stock up on medications if you have a serious health problem.
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GreyGhost · Heavy Crude Joined: Aug 31, 2005 Posts: 111

The population will reduce in a natural and non-disruptive way, until we reach the long term carrying capacity.

This will happen through a reduction in children-per-family due to the Demographic Transition, to a rate that is lower than replacement. Old people will die of natural causes after a long and fulfilling life, and the population will reduce.

This Demographic Transition will happen in increasing parts of the world because of the following changes, none of which require any increase in fossil fuel usage:

* increased access to contraception
* an increase in the status and education of women
* a reduction in the value of children's work
* an increase in parental investment in the education of children

...and other social changes.

See the wikipedia article on Demographic Transition for more reading.

Someone prove me wrong.

ohanian · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Oct 17, 2004 Posts: 1143

disease

Once people do not get enough to eat,
it's easy to fall ill with common sickness
And since basic medicine is so expensive
They shall all die like flies on a dry dusty day

IslandCrow

Other = disease.

Although most of the events in the poll will weak the capacity to fight off diseases.

[rant]
In looking at the idea of die-off as a result of the end of the carrying capacity of oil, I think that too many posts on this board over simplify and treat the it as a one time world-wide event.

While everything on this globe is interconnected ("no man is an island"), I think we stray too far from the biological and political reality by assuming that there will be one die-off, rather than localized/regional adjustments (such as now, where some of us live in areas of decreasing population and other parts of the world have massive growth rates). This of course complicates the model that we look at, but we might be do better to discuss what say would happen in North America, or in Europe, or Africa.
[/rant]
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wisconsin_cur · Moderator Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 3211

I hope the poll question is not taken as biased. I see any of these things as capable of reducing population in 1 year or 500, depending upon the scale and immediacy of the problem.

If you think disease, what will be the factor most contributing to the spread of disease? malnutrition? war destroying infrastructure? a government created super bug? (I recognize that some of you have already answered this question).
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“It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”

J.R.R. Tolkien

kokoda · Heavy Crude Joined: Aug 24, 2006 Posts: 441

You forgot the obvious one ... disease.

Shortages of water doesn't mean people die of dehydration. It just means that they start to drink water that is really unfit for human consumption. Food shortages bring about the same result with populations so weakened by hunger that they become more susceptible to disease.

Cloud9 · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Jul 26, 2006 Posts: 1159

Genocide was more lethal than the world wars of the last century. The last century was more lethal than the century that preceded it. If the trend continues, this century will top all that have come before it.

wisconsin_cur · Moderator Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 3211

Madpaddy · Expert Joined: Jun 25, 2004 Posts: 2124

Good thread W-C,

I answered shortened average lifespan which I would see as the consequence of a combination of the other choices listed.

ie. People won't live as long because of disease, war, unavailability of medicines etc. However, I see fertility levels rising but not enough to offset the population decline.
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KrellEnergySource · Tar Sands Joined: Oct 31, 2005 Posts: 90

I picked war. I fear that one day some superpower will use some number of nuclear weapons, and there's really no way to know what will happen if they do.

But I have to agree that disease should be on the list. I don't believe in government superbugs intentionally released by secret societies plotting world domination. But I do believe we have monumental challenges as microorganisms adapt to our antibiotics. Remember how many children died before age 5 in developed countries even as late as the year 1900? If not, visit a graveyard. Penicillin and sulfa drugs weren't available until the 1940's. So we've had all of 60-70 years using antibiotics and antimicrobials against organisms that readily develop resistance. Read the 1984 edition of the Difco manual and see how often resistant strains were already being talked about. Read up on Extreme Drug Resistant Tuberculosis as an example to see what we're fighting to stay ahead of today. It's frightening.

Brian

wisconsin_cur · Moderator Joined: May 10, 2007 Posts: 3211

kjmclark · Heavy Crude Joined: Dec 09, 2005 Posts: 326

roccman

The vast majority of people in the industrialized world have less than a week supply of food and if the do not have a pool less than 3 days water supply.

Most will die in under 45 days from starvation and dehydration.

The smart ones will have left the cities to their pre stocked crash steads and wait it out.
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