Does anybody know if there are any concrete simulations?

hemmi7 · Coal Joined: Aug 08, 2007 Posts: 2

Hello

Does anybody know if there are any concrete simulation or studies on the Problem?

I mean calculations in the kind of:

When Oilproduction starts to fall by 3% a Year tomorrow, Then:

-Prices for food will rise by xx% instantly and another yy% every year.
-Salaries will drop zz% and then rise aa% per year.
-unemloyment will go up to bb% in n Years and then fall with cc% a year.
-after 5 years dd% of the population will work in the primary sector.
-In the first e years there will starve fffffffffffff to death.
-...

and then you do the same calculations for a decline of 5% a Year, or with 10 % a year.

I know this are extremly difficult calculations because you calculate the world economy in a state it has never been before. So you can only guess the dynamics of the system.

but Somebody must have done something. Or Not?

i searched a lot but found nothing.
I only found general Terms like:
Gasprices will rise ASTRONOMICALLY
Unemployment will be a GIANT problem. (or perhaps it will not because you need a lot of hands in farming)

MattSavinar · Elite Joined: May 09, 2004 Posts: 2000

Google:

"oil shockwave"

"pentagon simulation billions food shortages"

"uk guardian british military report frightening future"
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peasea · Tar Sands Joined: Jul 26, 2007 Posts: 48

Cobra_Strike

The most scary thing of all to realize is that no one really has a good idea of what will happen.

Sure, there are many ideas. Some are in my mind more likely then others.

For example, I am sure that nukes will be used within a year of world wide peak oil awareness.

I also bet that food shortages and lack of water will kill the same number of people even if nukes are not used.

It really is anyones guess at this point, because only time will tell.
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We stand here, as the light of other days surrounds us.
"Hail the Dead"

steam_cannon · Expert Joined: Dec 28, 2006 Posts: 2554 Location: MA

Cobra_Strike

Worse, what even a ten year dust bowl would do to the top soil. What is it now, something like 6 inches?

Largest desert wasteland on the planet.

With frequent flash flooding, which will flood into the gulfs newest dead zone.
_________________
We stand here, as the light of other days surrounds us.
"Hail the Dead"

steam_cannon · Expert Joined: Dec 28, 2006 Posts: 2554 Location: MA

ohanian · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Oct 17, 2004 Posts: 1143

I found one!

ohanian · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Oct 17, 2004 Posts: 1143

Here is another one

steam_cannon · Expert Joined: Dec 28, 2006 Posts: 2554 Location: MA

Laughs_Last · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jul 26, 2005 Posts: 850

VenSim has been used to model the Limits to Growth. With the book in hand for reference and a trial/evaluation version of the modeling software, you can change the relationships, feedback loops, formulas, variables, and even the constants to simulate any number of scenarios. It's fun. We're screwed pretty much no matter what. The only things that change are how we're screwed and by what.

Cheers.

[edit]here's a better link: Forrester's World Dynamics

steam_cannon · Expert Joined: Dec 28, 2006 Posts: 2554 Location: MA

Keith_McClary

hemmi7 · Coal Joined: Aug 08, 2007 Posts: 2

Hello again

This Vensim is the kind of simulation I look for. But I'm interestet in "good" and actual results, and for this you need very good modeldata and starting values, not only some quick guessing.

Every number in this has to be tripple checked by sources that I (we) can not access. To make such a simulation is a task that can occupy hundreds of scientist for years. it's nothing you can quickly set up before going to bed.

i mean this studies in the early seventies were good, but we are now in the late 00s (35 years Later !!!!) . It's ridiculous we refer to models that are stone old

I mean would you believe a weather forecast for tomorrow made with starting values beeing 3 Months old ????

Why does nobody start this (or better ) Programs with actual starting- values ??

Laughs_Last · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jul 26, 2005 Posts: 850

They have been working on the study and model ever since the 70's. Many dozens (hundreds?) of scientists have worked decades on this. Their most recent publications are only a couple years old. Their data has been subjected to much scrutiny. The relative accuracy of past predictions lends credibility to their methodology and the passage of time has allowed for fine-tuning the model.