I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2729 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 8:51 pm Post subject: World oil reserves and future production
Mr. Leonard started by saying he has “always been interested in the oil reserves question.” In 2001, he wrote a paper on peak oil that two U.S.-based publications turned down but which Yukos then published in Russian. At a recent energy seminar, Leonard handed out copies of his 2001 paper to the 50 attendees. The key quote up front is this:
World oil reserves and future production
Quote:
“By 2010, the production of the fuel that has driven the world’s economy will start to rapidly decline. This will conflict with the steadily increasing demand for oil. The collision of these two trends will lead to shortages and increased prices, providing a strong incentive to shift to alternative fuel resources…Due to unequal distribution through the world of oil and gas supply and consumption, [the upcoming] transition will result in significant shifts in global power and wealth.”
Conclusions: a moderate rise in OPEC production will be partially offset by decreasing production in the Rest of World, with FSU production steady. A production peak of ultradeep water fields will allow the “peak” to be a “plateau during the coming decade, followed by a sharp fall. An increase in production of unconventional oil and natural gas liquids can add 5 million b/day during the coming decade. The current supply-side crisis is due to peak oil reached in the Rest of World in 2003, combined with a cessation of significant production growth in Russia after 2004.
energybulletin _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Posted: Mon Jun 30, 2008 9:11 pm Post subject: Re: World oil reserves and future production
2010 sounds like it will be really fun. I can hardly wait for the fall off the plateau. I think it will be the winter of 2009/10 that will really be the hard one for people around here.
This next winter isn't going to be a picnic, but the one after that is going to really be bad.
Peak oil is really no fun at all, is it? _________________ Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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