Analyst Predicts $7 Gas, “Mass Exodus” of U.S. Cars by 2010

socrates1fan · Heavy Crude Joined: Jun 04, 2008 Posts: 284

It is already happening.
In major cities near where I live that have public transportation they are finding their ridership more than triple while people abandon their cars(even the fuel friendly ones.) for a seat on a bus or amtrak.
America wasn't always auto-addicted. Let us not forget that.
At one point most towns had their own streetcars and were connected to other towns by interurbans and passenger trains.
Road travel was not practical.
That is why older areas are also denser and european-feeling.
This is also a time of which more and more Americans are returning to the downtowns of major metros. A reverse of the population movements of the 50's and 60's.
Americans are going to have to return to our 'European' life that exsisted before WWII.

3aidlillahi

emersonbiggins

Revi · Fusion Joined: Apr 25, 2005 Posts: 3448 Location: Maine

I don't think we'll re-institute light rail fast enough. We'll be taking the bus, and soon. Small bus lines will pop up everywhere. Most of suburbia will be toast, but a few nodes that are close to these busses will survive.

Unfortunately the poor will be relegated to the McMansions which will be split into a warren of small apartments off of the lawyer foyer.

People who live in the country will learn to farm, or sell to someone who does. They will come into town once a week to trade.

$7 gas means some of these badly tuned big pickups will cost almost a dollar a mile to push around. They are going to be filled with stuff or not driven at all.
_________________
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.

socrates1fan · Heavy Crude Joined: Jun 04, 2008 Posts: 284

lawnchair · Intermediate Crude Joined: Oct 20, 2004 Posts: 786

Of course it's *possible*, even with some of the constraints (metal and other raw material supply, skilled labor, existing cities). What's possible is amazing. Consider my home state of Kansas. Went from an non-native population of barely 100k to 1.7 million, zero rail to over 100 scheduled passenger trains and services to within ten miles of every spot in the state within just fifty years (1860-1910). 1.7 million (of 2.7 million now) before the first Model T showed up. Of course it's possible.

Can we do something on that scale again? Dunno. It seems to me that, because roads and oil grabbing are heavily subsidized, we also have to subsidize any other alternatives. Thus, in the modern era, transit tends to be a government function. And the government really doesn't have to care too much about providing good service... competition, profit, service, or market share... none of it means much to a government.

I can name you some smaller cities with smaller transit systems that are seriously considering giving up transit, right now. Cost of fuel, lower house appraisals, tax revolt, and low ridership due to politically-designed routes. Maybe someone else would fill the gap (jitneys)?
_________________
At 1% annual growth, human bodies will incorporate every gram in the observable universe in approximately 10,170 years.

emailking · Intermediate Crude Joined: Mar 11, 2006 Posts: 753

dohboi · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Dec 05, 2005 Posts: 1427

Friends in the burbs say they are seeing a decline in car volume already, but the highway I walk over every day in the city still is always jam packed, stop and go.

Real change will require not only a lot of people car pooling and taking transit, but a lot changing jobs and places of residence. Both of the latter have become much more difficult and scary in our current non-recession recession.

emersonbiggins

I'm not all that optimistic that the capital is there for the regeneration and relocalization that our cities need to thrive in a post-petroleum world, but since the only other option is to bug out right now, it seems folly to not give it some serious thought. And then bug out. Wink

_________________
"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."

George Carlin

Peepers · Heavy Crude Joined: Jan 01, 2005 Posts: 216

I'm a reporter in Cleveland, and I've been interviewing real estate agents who sell exclusively in the inner-city, which is an older industrial big city with some pretty good density and an electric rail transit system (where systemwide ridership was up 10 percent in April). The inner-city realtors said they are busier than they've been in years, and many are snapping up foreclosed homes for renovation. But don't just take my word for what may be the start of a rebound.......
______________

http://clevelandcityliving.blogspot.com/2008/06/cleveland-home-prices-rise.html

Friday, June 27, 2008
Cleveland Home Prices Rise!
courtesy of Cleveland.com

Home prices in the Cleveland area increased in April for the first time in almost a year, with improvement across all price levels, according to data released Tuesday. The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home-price index looks at existing single-family homes sold in 20 major markets, including the Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor area. Nationally, the index dropped 1.4 percent from March to April. But the Cleveland-area index rose 2.9 percent, marking the first month-to-month home price increase here since May of last year -- and the biggest one-month gain in the 20 metro areas.

The index for lower-priced homes in Greater Cleveland rose the most -- 5.9 percent for homes under $114,448.

Homes from $114,448 to $182,222 rose 1.4 percent and homes over $182,222, 3.8 percent.
The Cleveland area was one of eight markets that saw higher home prices in April compared with March, though all saw declines compared with the same month a year ago. "Cleveland is one of the markets that has not suffered from the dramatic highs and the dramatic lows," said Maureen Maitland, a vice president at Standard & Poor's. "Their growth rates have not been as strong, and their decline has not been as strong, either, so it's a much smoother cycle.

"The downside is their overall growth has not matched some of the stronger markets. Cleveland has not appreciated too much above where it was 10 years ago." The Case-Shiller report shows that Cleveland home prices have risen 9.55 percent since January 2000, lowest of the 20 metro areas except for Detroit, where prices actually have declined since 2000. Increased home prices from March to April may not mean much, Maitland said. It's typical to see demand and prices rise as the Cleveland snow melts and people start home shopping.

According to statistics last month from the Northern Ohio Regional Multiple Listing Service, the number of single-family homes sold in six Northeast Ohio counties increased by 10.1 percent between March and April. Carl DeMusz, president and chief executive of the multiple listing service, said this year's spring jump was particularly high and could have contributed to higher prices. But the prices also could reflect fewer sales of foreclosed properties, which banks typically sell at heavy discounts, he said. "There's a lot of dead wood out there that's starting to disappear," he said.

David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P, cautioned against being too optimistic.

"I would not declare the whole show over and a great turning point or anything like that," he said - especially since the Cleveland-area home price index is still down 6.8 percent from where it was a year ago. Nationally, the 20-market index fell a record 15.3 percent in April compared with the year before. It was the biggest decline since the index began in 2000, topping the 14.4 percent record of March. The composite was pulled down by markets like Las Vegas and Miami, each of which saw drops of more than 26 percent compared with last April. Those markets had some of the fastest growth in 2004 and 2005, so they had the farthest to fall.

Only six markets had better results than the Cleveland area compared with last year, including Charlotte, N.C., which declined only 0.1 percent. Barbara Reynolds, president of Real Living Realty One in Cleveland, said she thinks low interest rates and prices have lured buyers back into the Northeast Ohio marketplace. She said she has seen "more people at open houses, more people writing offers and more people looking at properties."

Enzo Perfetto, a spokesman for the Home Builders Association of Greater Cleveland, hopes that increased values and sales of existing homes will lead more people to buy new ones. "We take reports with a grain of salt," he said. "I think everybody kind of has a cautious eye to the next report, but it's definitely a breath of fresh air to see a report in a positive direction for Cleveland."

cube · Fusion Joined: Mar 12, 2005 Posts: 3776

SolarDave · Heavy Crude Joined: May 19, 2005 Posts: 382

I recall during the 70's gas crisis that carpooling was far more common than it is now. I would consider that to be one of the indicators of how bad things are. We are not near the bottom yet. When carpools become popular again, we will know we are reaching the end of the petroleum-fueled road.

Hitchhiking also became extremely popular.

Carpooling and hitchhiking will make up for lack of decent public transportation in the US for many poor people (or "middle class" as we used to call them). Declaring bankruptcy and calling for government assistance will take care of the rest.

Remember the old movies about ancient Rome?

"Increase the dole!"
_________________
100% of the electricity needed for this post was generated by ME.
<p>
<A HREF="http://www.los-gatos.ca.us/davidbu/pedgen/green_virtual_gym.html">Posted from a Pedal Powered Computer</A>

MyOldTDiIsStillGoing

I found this book at a used book store in SFO about 20 years ago called The Electric Interurban Railways In America by G. W. Hilton (Stanford Press, 1960). An excellent book on the rise and fall of the Interurban Rail system that complimented the standard rail system. In fact, the back alley of my house is were the CD&M ran through, a little history of my neighborhood.

Remember this country in the 1800's was built along rail lines. The map of cities and towns were along the rail lines as they replaced the canal system for the mode of moving goods and people between cities. Even so, it was still very regional service. People back then considered it a big trip to travel say from Detroit to Chicago.

Back in the early 20th century, the suburbs were roughly 40 by 80 lots which could still support the trolley service and buses. As the suburb lots grew to have less density per acre, the mass transit system would travel further for less density, therefore, higher cost. Also, previous urban design was the mix of resident and business to support the residents so there was no need for the big box warehouses with big parking lots. People walked to the stores or could take urban transit.

As well, what we have today is a lack of US manufacturing of urban transit so it is even more challenging to get equipment. Big companies like Pullman, St Louis Car, ACF, and such are long gone. There is now basically the just the big 3 for rail passenger service, again the result of merges and consolidations.

The big 3 are:
1) Bombardier (Canada)
2) Siemens (Germany)
3) Alstom (France)

We could easily add to it companies like Kawasaki and Mitsubishi as well as other Asian manufacturers. For the US to get serious about returning to a better transportation system here, we need to look at the opportunity to invest in the capital and resources to get it done. Companies like Bombardier are so back logged with orders that the opportunity is there. Back in the mid 20th century the street car manufacturers worked on standardizing the vehicle to help in cost and service. The car called the PCC.

The opportunity to shift our manufacturing to alternative transportation is out there. I am looking for the capital to do it. We have to resources to do it. Time is now and the discuss is over, it should of been years ago, but we wait until the last hour and then think of alternatives. Something I have been formulating for 30+ years, but the US wasn't ready for it.

3aidlillahi

Barbara

Stupid question.
If someone buys a bus in a suburbia, put a sign "Every day 7.30 AM to city center", could this be a good business? Are you allowed to do that?
(In EU we aren't, of course... Rolling Eyes

)
_________________
**no english mothertongue**
--------
Objects in the rear view mirror
are closer than they appear.