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Peakoil.com :: View topic - U.S. highway fatalities down 9% thus far in 2008
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U.S. highway fatalities down 9% thus far in 2008

 
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emersonbiggins
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 11:41 am    Post subject: U.S. highway fatalities down 9% thus far in 2008 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

That proverbial silver lining...

Quote:

AP IMPACT: Traffic deaths fall as gas prices climb

By MARK WILLIAMS – 20 hours ago

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Rising prices at the gas pump appear to be having at least one positive effect: Traffic deaths around the country are plummeting, just as they did during the Arab oil embargo three decades ago.

Researchers with the National Safety Council report a 9 percent drop in motor vehicle deaths overall through May compared with the first five months of 2007, including a drop of 18 percent in March and 14 percent in April.

Preliminary figures obtained by The Associated Press show that some states have reported declines of 20 percent or more. Thirty-one states have seen declines of at least 10 percent, and eight states have reported an increase, according to the council.

No one can say definitively why road fatalities are falling, but it is happening as Americans cut back sharply on driving because of record-high gas prices.

Fewer people on the road means fewer fatalities, said Gus Williams, 52, of Albany, Ga., who frequently drives to northern Ohio. "That shows a good thing coming out of this crisis." He has also noticed that many motorists are going slower.
...


AP
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Bas
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 11:49 am    Post subject: Re: U.S. highway fatalities down 9% thus far in 2008 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

ah, the first proof that peakoil will not result in a die-off but instead will cause a massive live-on! Rolling Eyes



; )
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Starvid
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 11:52 am    Post subject: Re: U.S. highway fatalities down 9% thus far in 2008 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

So people who want lower gas prices are anti-life? Or if that sounds too negative to you: pro-death.
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Tyler_JC
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 12:15 pm    Post subject: Re: U.S. highway fatalities down 9% thus far in 2008 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

In 2002, car accidents were the 8th leading cause of death in the United States.

Moreover, for every age between 3 and 33, car accidents were THE leading cause of death.

Car crashes kill young, healthy people.

I regard the drop in highway fatalities as good news but I'm sure the doomers disagree. Cool
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yesplease
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 12:40 pm    Post subject: Re: U.S. highway fatalities down 9% thus far in 2008 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Here's more.
Quote:
"There are a whole bunch of factors that are influenced by higher gasoline prices — teenagers don't have as much money, so you have the most risky drivers driving less; people are switching out of the bigger, older more dangerous vehicles, and people also know if they drive slower they're going to save gasoline," Ditlow said. "So, from a societal viewpoint, higher gasoline prices have a great number of benefits, and one of the most important benefits is fewer traffic fatalities."

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yesplease
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 12:53 pm    Post subject: Re: U.S. highway fatalities down 9% thus far in 2008 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

There tend to be quite a few silver linings in terms of congestion, noise, accidents, pollution, a reduction in GHG emissions, that end up offsetting the impact of driving reductions on the economy. At ~$300-1,700 billion/year in externalized costs, reductions in driving may turn out to be positive since consumers can spend their income in other aspects of the economy and externalized costs drop. The biggest pain comes from when consumers can't or won't change to reflect the increase in price.
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IslandCrow
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 1:07 pm    Post subject: Re: U.S. highway fatalities down 9% thus far in 2008 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Thanks for the info EB. 9% reduction is a huge number! Smile

This answers the short term part of a question that is going through my mind, but not the long term:

BAckground: In less developed countries there is crowding on ill repaired cars/trucks/boats etc, which often lead to large casualty figures. Also I read somewhere that every year in the States 3 times more people die in road accidents than died in 911.

The question is "will the reduction of deaths caused by people driving less/slower be nullified by more fatalities due to overcrowding of vehicles and to the vehicles being in poorer condition than now?"
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emersonbiggins
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 1:16 pm    Post subject: Re: U.S. highway fatalities down 9% thus far in 2008 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

IslandCrow wrote:

The question is "will the reduction of deaths caused by people driving less/slower be nullified by more fatalities due to overcrowding of vehicles and to the vehicles being in poorer condition than now?"


Well, overcrowding probably will not be an issue in our future anymore than it is right now, as we [U.S.] have probably reached market saturation for autos, and our population growth is fairly insignificant. Combine this with the fact that per-capita use of the auto is sure to go down, with those on the lowest socioeconomic rung driving little to none at all.

However, we could reach an overcrowded condition if the deterioration of our road networks reaches a point that redundant roads or lanes need to be closed indefinitely, b/c of lack of funding to maintain them. Think one-lane interstates.
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mrsea
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 1:21 pm    Post subject: Re: U.S. highway fatalities down 9% thus far in 2008 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

This is an obvious setback for those of us concerned with population overshoot.
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skeptik
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 2:13 pm    Post subject: Re: U.S. highway fatalities down 9% thus far in 2008 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Tyler_JC wrote:

Car crashes kill young, healthy people.

Indeed. The psychology of it is nicely portrayed in the chapter "How to drive fast on drugs while getting your wing-wang squeezed and not spill your beer" from the collection of humorous essays by P.J.O'Rourke, "Republican Party Reptile". Excellent stuff.

Another chapter, "High-Speed performance Characteristics of Pickup Trucks" may also supply a clue as to another factor in the declining death rate.
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Twilight
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 2:28 pm    Post subject: Re: U.S. highway fatalities down 9% thus far in 2008 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

So, driving bigger cars finally worked, but not quite in the way intended? Very Happy
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heroineworshipper
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:11 pm    Post subject: Re: U.S. highway fatalities down 9% thus far in 2008 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

The opposite is happening here in the real world. Rising prices make people consume more & drive their SUV's more. They want to get in more driving ahead of future higher prices.

Gas dropped 2% last week & for the first time in months, there was empty real estate at the gas stations. Demand falls when prices fall because they expect future lower prices.
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kublikhan
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 10:47 pm    Post subject: Re: U.S. highway fatalities down 9% thus far in 2008 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

heroineworshipper wrote:
The opposite is happening here in the real world. Rising prices make people consume more & drive their SUV's more. They want to get in more driving ahead of future higher prices.
Gas dropped 2% last week & for the first time in months, there was empty real estate at the gas stations. Demand falls when prices fall because they expect future lower prices.

The real world disagrees with you:
Quote:
In 2005 per capita consumption fell by about 0.6%, falling further for the full years 2006 and 2007 to 97% of the 2004 peak. The 2008 levels, if maintained for the entire year, would put per capita oil consumption at about 91.6% of the 2004 peak.
Oil Consumption falls to 2002 level
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cube
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 12:46 am    Post subject: Re: U.S. highway fatalities down 9% thus far in 2008 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

The greatest danger usually happens not because of speed but instead when there's a huge differential between speeds.
For example if someone is doing 30mph over the speed limit that creates an unsafe condition. Visualize this:
If everybody is going the exact same speed how can there be a car accident?
That's why previously when the speed limit was raised from 55 to 65mph it did not lead to more accidents.
I'm guessing high gas prices is encouraging some of those "heavy foot" drivers to slow down to the speed limit.
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3aidlillahi
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 7:07 am    Post subject: Re: U.S. highway fatalities down 9% thus far in 2008 Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Quote:
Also I read somewhere that every year in the States 3 times more people die in road accidents than died in 911.


There's 40,000 deaths each year on the road. That's more than 13 times 9/11. So this drop of 9%, if it holds for the entire year, will save more lives than the number of deaths on 9/11. Shocked Yet we wage trillion dollar wars to prevent another 9/11 when we could get it with a gas-tax (which raises revenue).

Ahh, American politics.
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