I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 1140 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 1:54 pm Post subject: $6 gasoline
Now that $4 gas is here to stay, I was thinking of the consequences of the next psychological milestone. $5 is almost here --at least in Chicago--, so I rounded to the next dollar; $6.
What are the predictions for unemployment, governmental services, utilities, food production, food delivery, etc? What will shut down, slow down, break down, end, continue?
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 6:06 pm Post subject: Re: $6 gasoline
After yesterday's 4.1% inflation reading met expectations, another 1/2 point rate cut was guaranteed before Dec. 4.1% is considered the new normal. $6 gas should happen shortly after. _________________ People first, then things, then dollars.
There will be enslavement, cannibalism, & zombie invasions.
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 7:18 pm Post subject: Re: $6 gasoline
What we're doing, or have done, in anticipation of higher gas prices.
I already drive very little. Today, in fact, was the first time I've driven since last Sunday. I went about 7 miles up the road to buy Carlin a father's day present and stopped while I was out at the feed store. That was the extent of my outing.
Now that being said, Carlin does drive everyday to and from work. He generally runs errands on the way to save another trip out. A couple months ago we bought him a motorcycle which more than doubled the gas mileage we've been getting in the past. He drives the motorcycle everyday, unless he needs to do something like stop at the feedstore and pick up 50 lb bags of feed.
Instead of spending about $85 a week on gas, he now spends less than $20. That gives us a little wiggle room for the increasing price. He has a good set of saddlebags, so he can even do some shopping for smaller items while he is out. It's helped a lot.
Worse comes to worse, we have plenty of friends we could carpool with down the road (with some re-arranging of schedules), or even further, our neighbors have a team of horses and a wagon. We'll get where we need. It may just take us a while.
Kathy
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 7:58 pm Post subject: Re: $6 gasoline
I haven't driven a car in 5 months. Haven't driven regularly in almost 2 years. I'm relying on railways for interstate transport, the subway for transportation around NYC and the bicycle for transportation within Manhattan. Average transport cost per month is about 100 dollars. _________________ http://backtowilderness.blogspot.com http://grown-up-permaculture.com
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4352 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 8:02 pm Post subject: Re: $6 gasoline
August 08 _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
Joined: Jun 05, 2005 Posts: 363 Location: Portland Oregon, USA
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 8:55 pm Post subject: Re: $6 gasoline
We already drive very little, but could do better.
Our current debate with the Family Financial Committee (my wife and I) is whether to trade in the 2000 Eurvan (about 17-20 per gallon) which we own outright on a new higher efficiency car.
Anyone know a good equation for calculating the point at which it makes sense to make such a move, factoring in the value of the car you own and price of a gallon of gas. Surely as the price /gal goes up, it works ouw to trade your car sooner.
Joined: Aug 15, 2005 Posts: 269 Location: Hicktown OK
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 1:25 am Post subject: Re: $6 gasoline
I have already started to gather all my errands and things like doctor's appointments into one day, and that is my driving around and getting things done day. If I am lucky enough, I can combine an errand with a place to swim, and float around in the lake for a while..but to JUST drive out to the lake isn't something I can afford to do.
I don't know what will happen when gas gets higher. I have been looking around and can't find a bicycle in town, so will have to check out getting one in the city. And my jeep has tires that are close to completely bald, but I just don't have the money to get them replaced right now. If I am lucky, I will have enough in a few months to get a decent set of retreads, but for the time being, both because of the cost of gas and because of my tires, I do as little driving as possible.
Once I get a bicycle, I can put a cart behind it, and use it for around town errands like grocery shopping. _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe.-H.G. Wells
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 6:36 am Post subject: Re: $6 gasoline
To cope with more expensive gas, we traded off a 4WD S-10 last year for a VW Rabbit, and bought a bicycle. I plan to put a 49cc motor on the bike, and a trailer.
My wife drives the VW to work until she retires next year, and I drive an old S-10 4 cyl. (29 mpg and it needs work) for shop business. We still have her S-10, also, used now for shopping trips on weekends, because it has a huge bed with a bed cover. It never makes a trip without coming home loaded, and gets 25 mpg+. I've already talked to the neighbors about carpooling for shopping trips, and use the bike to get around the neighborhood.
It's still early yet in the fuel crisis, so not everything is implemented, but our driving has already been reduced a lot.
With several ideas from yesplease, and the help of our neighborhood VW mechanic, the Rabbit promises to soon get improved mileage. That involves a better carburetor, exhaust headers, narrower, harder, and taller tires, and probably a super valve job (porting and matching, and 3 angle valve grind, since I have a machine to do it), and take about .040" off the head for better compression. I have a head grinder, too. Might as well get the best use of those machines. Then tune the ignition advance to a few degrees less than where I get preigniton. Done this before with an old Chev 250 6 cyl. in a pickup, and got to 26 mpg highway with it, with a 4.10 rear end. We get 30 to 32 mpg with the VW now (gas engine) with no particular effort, and hope to get 40 mpg or better on regular gas.
I've only got $1,600 in the VW, and it has just over 100,000 miles on it. I expect it to last a long time at 2,000 to 5,000 miles /year. This model typically last for 200,000 without major trouble. I may spend another $500 getting it to 40 mpg, which compares very favorably with anything newer. I probably won't live long enough (I'm 62) to wear it out at this rate. _________________ Local fix-it guy..
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 8:20 am Post subject: Re: $6 gasoline
Currently my family is talking about getting bicycles but lucky for us.
We have a car that gets 30m to the gallon and everything is within walking distance IF needed.
Joined: Sep 16, 2007 Posts: 1424 Location: Oklahoma City, USA
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 3:01 pm Post subject: Re: $6 gasoline
Right now school's out so I don't drive much other than doctor appointments. I try to combine trips as much as possible.
If gas got to $6/gallon here in Oklahoma then we're talking close to $7/gallon most other places. I wouldn't be taking the kids to school in that case, it would just be too expensive. _________________ Conservation is conservative
It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change. -- Charles Darwin
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 1140 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 3:35 pm Post subject: Re: $6 gasoline
Pops wrote:
This forum is for explaining what we are each doing, not for describing what we each imagine is some crystal ball.
Fair, Pops. I was wondering what others are doing to prepare for $6 gas. Perhaps I could pick their brains.
Pops wrote:
Tell us what you are doing in preparation for $6 and perhaps $10 gas and you'll have a good thread.
Good point. We already live within walking distance to work. We use about 13-15 gallons of gas a month. We're postponing all non-essential household purchases, radically changing vacation plans, and have paid all debt. But that's silly, and not really worthy sharing.
My gloom scenario is of the genre that it's too expensive for the power plant tech to go to work, and boom, the power plant goes off-line and it cascades through the main grids. Same for the water treatment plant people, the DOT people, etc. Am I watching too many movies?
So we're making more silly preparations; candles, batteries, water filters, etc.
Joined: Apr 03, 2004 Posts: 6942 Location: My Grandkids' Farm
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2008 6:58 pm Post subject: Re: $6 gasoline
VMarcHart wrote:
What do you think?
Thanks VM. I think you are in better shape than most. The actions you note are far from silly and a good example of describing what you are doing.
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