I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.
Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 6:26 pm Post subject: Is Europe going the way of America?
I hear reports that the Euro is declining in value and will decline further when interest rates are cut. It seems the west is receding while the east (China, India etc) is rising.
Joined: Aug 11, 2005 Posts: 815 Location: Eastern NC
Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 7:57 pm Post subject: Re: Is Europe going the way of America?
Vampy
Your question was about US vs Europe. As we're seeing now, Europe will not go the way of the US. It will fall apart much faster. Its a far more brittle system, looks better under the initial strain then completely crumbles. US has a far more flexible system, dips easily but returns much quicker also.
Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 8:34 pm Post subject: Re: Is Europe going the way of America?
Don't think so. Europe has a strong manufacturing base with lcutting edge products. Everyday stuff, Swiss watches, tools, printing presses, (better) cars, optical products, ....
Europe is not a service orientated society rather a producing orientated.
Personal depth level is much lower.
Joined: Jun 26, 2007 Posts: 1438 Location: The Canada of America
Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 6:36 am Post subject: Re: Is Europe going the way of America?
alokin wrote:
Don't think so. Europe has a strong manufacturing base with lcutting edge products. Everyday stuff, Swiss watches, tools, printing presses, (better) cars, optical products, ....
Europe is not a service orientated society rather a producing orientated.
Personal depth level is much lower.
Yeah, I agree, Europe's fundamentals are stronger. Their personal and national debts are lower, the eurozone is only slightly in negative territory in balance of trade this year, and they actually have something to export besides their currency. Europe's malaise is mostly contagion from the US; the money that's been lent that's not coming back. A possible exception is Britain, who really seemed to jump into the housing bubble with both feet. _________________ I can has cheezburger?
Joined: Jun 29, 2008 Posts: 88 Location: Great Britan
Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 7:04 am Post subject: Re: Is Europe going the way of America?
alokin wrote:
Don't think so. Europe has a strong manufacturing base with lcutting edge products. Everyday stuff, Swiss watches, tools, printing presses, (better) cars, optical products, ....
Europe is not a service orientated society rather a producing orientated.
Personal depth level is much lower.
Not in Britain and several other European countries. Britain was once the workshop of the world... the industrial revolution started here after all. Now there is almost no industry or manufacturing left, we are almost entirely a service and financial economy. We're screwed.
Posted: Sun Oct 12, 2008 12:02 pm Post subject: Re: Is Europe going the way of America?
Gebari wrote:
Not in Britain and several other European countries. Britain was once the workshop of the world... the industrial revolution started here after all. Now there is almost no industry or manufacturing left, we are almost entirely a service and financial economy. We're screwed.
Is that just some doomer gut feeling you have? Last time I checked up statistics, the UK had an absolutely huge manufacturing industry. I won't dig up the numbers again - just advising you to check it yourself.
Being a doomer is okay. But make sure to be so for legitimate reasons.
Posted: Sun Oct 12, 2008 12:51 pm Post subject: Re: Is Europe going the way of America?
LGW wrote:
Gebari wrote:
Not in Britain and several other European countries. Britain was once the workshop of the world... the industrial revolution started here after all. Now there is almost no industry or manufacturing left, we are almost entirely a service and financial economy. We're screwed.
Is that just some doomer gut feeling you have? Last time I checked up statistics, the UK had an absolutely huge manufacturing industry. I won't dig up the numbers again - just advising you to check it yourself.
Being a doomer is okay. But make sure to be so for legitimate reasons.
LGW
Indeed Britain has the 6th largest manufacturing economy in the world if i remember correctly
Joined: Apr 06, 2005 Posts: 1018 Location: 38 km west of Warsaw, Poland
Posted: Sun Oct 12, 2008 1:18 pm Post subject: Re: Is Europe going the way of America?
Europe is not a country! The current economic, manufacturing, agricultural, etc.. conditions in Poland for example, are much different than what you may be familiar with in Belgium or Ireland. At best, you might be able to divide it up as Eastern vs Western Europe and possibly Northern vs Southern Europe. It is actually like trying to compare Southern California with Nebraska.
However, as vast as the differences are among different regions in the US, they will all sink or swim together. In Europe, the places most similar to the US will also suffer a similar fate. The rest of the folks will barely notice. I don't think most of my neighbors know about 'Morgan Stanley' or "Lehman Bros'. They are too busy cutting up firewood from a recent storm or getting their fields ready for the next harvest. There are somethings attractive about being a peasant... _________________ Remember, with globalisation "everyone is a winner" in the "race to the bottom". - rogerhb
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. A.C. Clarke
Joined: Jun 29, 2008 Posts: 88 Location: Great Britan
Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2008 3:57 am Post subject: Re: Is Europe going the way of America?
Quote:
Is that just some doomer gut feeling you have? Last time I checked up statistics, the UK had an absolutely huge manufacturing industry. I won't dig up the numbers again - just advising you to check it yourself.
Being a doomer is okay. But make sure to be so for legitimate reasons.
LGW
It's not a gut feeling. Compared to France and Germany for example our hard manufacturing sector is considerably smaller has been in terminal decline for decades. I can't remember the last time I saw a "Made in Britain" sign. Germany and France for example are large car manufacturers, while Britain was once similarly large but our car manufacturing industry has almost vanished in recent years.
Quote:
In 1992, finance and business services accounted for 24 per cent of Britain's GDP, compared with 21 per cent for manufacturing. By 2004 - the latest available figures - the gap had widened to 32 per cent and 14 per cent. The Office for National Statistics estimates that in 2002, 10 million workers in the UK were employed in 'financial and business services', compared with one in 10 in 1981. Only about 3 million workers are now employed in manufacturing, down from almost 4.5 million in 1994.
A lot of our so-called industry left now is things like food processing, McDonalds, pharmaceuticals etc.
_________________ The history book on the shelf, is always repeating itself.
Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2008 2:40 pm Post subject: Re: Is Europe going the way of America?
Gebari wrote:
It's not a gut feeling. Compared to France and Germany for example our hard manufacturing sector is considerably smaller has been in terminal decline for decades. I can't remember the last time I saw a "Made in Britain" sign. Germany and France for example are large car manufacturers, while Britain was once similarly large but our car manufacturing industry has almost vanished in recent years.
Nissan, Honda, Ford, GM and many others still make a great many cars in the UK, its just UK designed cars that are dead as a Rover 200. The UK still has a manufacturing base, but its nowhere as strong as it was or as Germanys.
Alot of the manufacturing we lost though was metal pressing and cotton mills. Industries we were never going to compete in once the race to the bottom started. Those same towns now fill in as call center farms.
Our IT industry is actualy quite good and our oil industry is very strong. Its a mixed report card. But we produce far far too few science graduates. The past 10 years is our great lost hope of getting the kinds of scientists and engineers out of the unis to get us ahead of the depletion curve. Once the full impact of declining North Sea oil and gas come home to roost, we are in for a few lean years.
Posted: Sat Oct 25, 2008 10:25 am Post subject: Re: Is Europe going the way of America?
lateStarter wrote:
Europe is not a country! The current economic, manufacturing, agricultural, etc.. conditions in Poland for example, are much different than what you may be familiar with in Belgium or Ireland. At best, you might be able to divide it up as Eastern vs Western Europe and possibly Northern vs Southern Europe. It is actually like trying to compare Southern California with Nebraska.
However, as vast as the differences are among different regions in the US, they will all sink or swim together. In Europe, the places most similar to the US will also suffer a similar fate. The rest of the folks will barely notice. I don't think most of my neighbors know about 'Morgan Stanley' or "Lehman Bros'. They are too busy cutting up firewood from a recent storm or getting their fields ready for the next harvest. There are somethings attractive about being a peasant...
Yes there is a lot of difference between western and eastern Europe. I have a chat friend in Belgium who constantly grumbles about those "bastards from the east who come here to enjoy the social benefits we worked for while contributing nothing".
Joined: Aug 24, 2005 Posts: 412 Location: Costa Geriatrica, Spain
Posted: Sat Oct 25, 2008 1:16 pm Post subject: Re: Is Europe going the way of America?
alokin wrote:
Don't think so. Europe has a strong manufacturing base with lcutting edge products. Everyday stuff, Swiss watches, tools, printing presses, (better) cars, optical products, ....
Europe is not a service orientated society rather a producing orientated.
Personal depth level is much lower.
Generalising about Europe is even more fraught with peril than generalising about the USA.
for example, just to take the last two points - the UK economy is more service oriented than the USA and personal debt in the UK (as a percentage of annual income) is far higher than in the USA. The same *cannot* be said for some other countries in Europe.
The economies of the individual countries in Europe are far more heterogeneous than those of the States of the USA. If the strain on the Eurozone economies gets too high, it's quite feasible that the Euro could split on an approximate east west axis, with a strong Euro in the Northern zone, and a weak Euro zone in the South composed of countries bordering the Mediterranean. Theres a way to go before this is contemplated. Belonging to a large single currency block does have a lot of advantages.
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