| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
NTBKtrader
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Oct 19, 2004
Posts: 590
|
 Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 4:14 pm Post subject: Interesting Declining American Rail Loads Data |
  |
|
http://www.zibb.com/article/3503651/DJ+US+Weekly+Rail+Car+Loadings+57+Intermodal+Units+56
Interesting info, rail loads in the US are down 5.7% year on year for week ending June 21, almost all categories (yr on yr) are down, many are down double digits. However, looking at the cumulative 24 week data most numbers look better than week ending june 21...
I'm wondering if any of our resident statisticians would like to graph any of the historic data?
It looks on the face of things that we are in for a sizeable economic contraction, especially given last 6 months jobs data.
Last edited by NTBKtrader on Sun Jul 06, 2008 4:29 pm; edited 1 time in total |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Tyler_JC
Moderator
Joined: Sep 25, 2004
Posts: 4392
Location: Boston, MA
|
| Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 4:28 pm Post subject: Re: Interesting Declining American Rail Loads Data |
|
|
5.7% reductions in shipping volumes do not translate into 5.7% contractions in GDP.
_________________
"www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse." |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
NTBKtrader
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Oct 19, 2004
Posts: 590
|
| Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 4:31 pm Post subject: Re: Interesting Declining American Rail Loads Data |
|
|
double post, my hangover isn't doing me any favors today haha
Last edited by NTBKtrader on Sun Jul 06, 2008 4:34 pm; edited 1 time in total |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
NTBKtrader
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Oct 19, 2004
Posts: 590
|
| Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 4:33 pm Post subject: Re: Interesting Declining American Rail Loads Data |
|
|
| Tyler_JC wrote: |
5.7% reductions in shipping volumes do not translate into 5.7% contractions in GDP. |
Agreed, but that graph, which graphs manufacturing orders and not rail shipping volumes, does seem to correlate well with the '01 recession. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
NTBKtrader
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Oct 19, 2004
Posts: 590
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
MyOldTDiIsStillGoing
Tar Sands
Joined: Jun 11, 2008
Posts: 90
Location: CMH, I-71 Exit 112
|
| Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 4:59 pm Post subject: Re: Interesting Declining American Rail Loads Data |
|
|
RailwayAge mentioned the volume lost that particular week and a large part of the issue is the impact due to the flooding in Iowa, and such. BNSF is still trying to get things back to full operation. Better data in a week or so will show the true picture once the shipping lanes open up to full operations and the impact of the flooding issue doesn't skew the data.
_________________
THE SIMPLE LIFE: One frozen pond, a few sticks, a little round puck, and a bunch of rowdy kids. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
GoghGoner
Heavy Crude
Joined: Apr 10, 2008
Posts: 230
|
| Posted: Sun Jul 06, 2008 5:19 pm Post subject: Re: Interesting Declining American Rail Loads Data |
|
|
| NTBKtrader wrote: | | rail loads in the US are down 5.7% year on year for week June 21 |
I know that distribution managers have been using trains more because of the increased trucking costs over the last year so this comes as quite a surprise to me. Intermodal shipping containers seem to have provided some flexibility to switch from truck to train for segments of the travel. Does this -- the lack of products in movement -- explain why the foreign markets are being hit harder than the US market so far? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
MrBill
Expert
Joined: Sep 15, 2005
Posts: 5215
Location: Eurasia
|
| Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 2:56 am Post subject: Re: Interesting Declining American Rail Loads Data |
|
|
| Quote: | | It is an interesting trade-off. Railway stocks as a hedge against high fuel prices that favor rail transport. But a weakening economy that demands less rail transport and therefore lowers rail profitability. Last time I looked at rail stocks they were quite expensive. That was a few months ago. Perhaps I need to spend less time here and more time on my Bloomberg researching them again. If there is a further market blow-out this summer then they might be good bargains. |
_________________
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
News
Discussions
Resources
Members
Forum FAQ
Search
Usergroups
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
