I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:29 pm Post subject: Canada’s Oil Sands Will Not Prevent PO-Uppsala U
A Crash Program Scenario for the Canadian Oil Sands Industry
Bengt Söderbergh, Fredrik Robelius and Kjell Aleklett
Contact: Kjell Aleklett
Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group
Uppsala University, Box 535, SE-751 21, Sweden
Contact e-mail: Aleklett@tsl.uu.se
Abstract
The report Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management, by Robert L. Hirsch et al., concludes that Peak Oil is going to happen and that worldwide large-scale mitigation efforts are necessary to avoid its possible devastating effects for the world economy. These efforts include accelerated production, referred to as crash program production, from Canada’s oil sands. The objective of this article is to investigate and analyse what production levels that might be reasonable to expect from a crash program for the Canadian oil sands industry, within the time frame 2006-2018 and 2006-2050. The implementation of a crash program for the Canadian oil sands industry is associated with serious difficulties. There is not a large enough supply of natural gas to support a future Canadian oil sands industry with today’s dependence on natural gas. It is possible to use bitumen as fuel and for upgrading, although it seems to be incompatible with Canada’s obligations under the Kyoto treaty. For practical long-term high production, Canada must construct nuclear facilities to generate energy for the in situ projects. Even in a very optimistic scenario Canada’s oil sands will not prevent Peak Oil. A short-term crash program from the Canadian oil sands industry achieves about 3.6 mb/d by 2018. A long-term Crash program results in a production of approximately 5 mb/d by 2030.
Joined: Nov 11, 2004 Posts: 978 Location: Heart of Canada's Oil Country
Posted: Mon Jun 12, 2006 10:49 am Post subject: Re: Canada’s Oil Sands Will Not Prevent PO-Uppsala U
DantesPeak wrote:
A Crash Program Scenario for the Canadian Oil Sands Industry
Bengt Söderbergh, Fredrik Robelius and Kjell Aleklett
Contact: Kjell Aleklett
Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group
Uppsala University, Box 535, SE-751 21, Sweden
Contact e-mail: Aleklett@tsl.uu.se
Abstract
The report Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management, by Robert L. Hirsch et al., concludes that Peak Oil is going to happen and that worldwide large-scale mitigation efforts are necessary to avoid its possible devastating effects for the world economy. These efforts include accelerated production, referred to as crash program production, from Canada’s oil sands. The objective of this article is to investigate and analyse what production levels that might be reasonable to expect from a crash program for the Canadian oil sands industry, within the time frame 2006-2018 and 2006-2050. The implementation of a crash program for the Canadian oil sands industry is associated with serious difficulties. There is not a large enough supply of natural gas to support a future Canadian oil sands industry with today’s dependence on natural gas. It is possible to use bitumen as fuel and for upgrading, although it seems to be incompatible with Canada’s obligations under the Kyoto treaty. For practical long-term high production, Canada must construct nuclear facilities to generate energy for the in situ projects. Even in a very optimistic scenario Canada’s oil sands will not prevent Peak Oil. A short-term crash program from the Canadian oil sands industry achieves about 3.6 mb/d by 2018. A long-term Crash program results in a production of approximately 5 mb/d by 2030.
"Canada must construct nuclear facilities to generate energy..."
and
"It is possible to use bitumen as fuel and for upgrading, although it seems to be incompatible with Canada’s obligations under the Kyoto treaty"
Will Canadian Oil sands prevent PO? No. But Please! If these guys are going to make such absolute statements they need to do more research, and then they would see they can't make such absolute statements.
All it will take is a technology such as THAI to prove both of those statments that I quoted wrong, wrong, wrong.
THAI would radically reduce the need for natural gas and makes nuclear a non-starter (not that I'm against nuclear). THAI would also help immensely with Kyoto goals, as the majority of CO2 is trapped underground, it would reduce emissions 50%.
To learn more about THAI:
www.petrobank.com
Click on "WhiteSands Insitu" and there's lots of good stuff to read.
Disclaimer: I own stock in PBG, but for a very good reason. _________________ Do not underestimate the difficulties of surviving the transition of peak oil, nor the dangers of global warming. We must embrace nuclear energy and renewables.
Posted: Mon Jun 12, 2006 11:41 am Post subject: Re: Canada’s Oil Sands Will Not Prevent PO-Uppsala U
FatherOfTwo wrote:
Will Canadian Oil sands prevent PO? No. But Please! If these guys are going to make such absolute statements they need to do more research, and then they would see they can't make such absolute statements.
I was looking for your comments. Do you think you could post a rebuttal to some of their arguments?
Joined: Oct 15, 2004 Posts: 2230 Location: Arkansas
Posted: Mon Jun 12, 2006 12:59 pm Post subject: Re: Canada’s Oil Sands Will Not Prevent PO-Uppsala U
Fatheroftwo,
I have followed your arguments about THAI, but keep noting its not replacing natural gas yet. So, when or at what rate will THAI replace natural gas and at what costs? By 2012, for example, how many barrels of oil per day will be produced using THAI?
Joined: Apr 17, 2005 Posts: 2749 Location: Vancouver Island
Posted: Mon Jun 12, 2006 1:13 pm Post subject: Re: Canada’s Oil Sands Will Not Prevent PO-Uppsala U
FatherOfTwo wrote:
All it will take is a technology such as THAI to prove both of those statments that I quoted wrong, wrong, wrong.
You've been pushing THAI since I signed up on this board. Is it in use anywhere yet? If not why not? _________________ shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
Joined: Nov 11, 2004 Posts: 978 Location: Heart of Canada's Oil Country
Posted: Wed Jun 14, 2006 11:40 am Post subject: Re: Canada’s Oil Sands Will Not Prevent PO-Uppsala U
strider3700 wrote:
FatherOfTwo wrote:
All it will take is a technology such as THAI to prove both of those statments that I quoted wrong, wrong, wrong.
You've been pushing THAI since I signed up on this board. Is it in use anywhere yet? If not why not?
Quote:
Early operations at the WHITESANDS project began in March 2006 with steam injection into the first vertical injection well followed by steam injection with early fluid production from the horizontal well in April. This steam injection phase is the Pre Injection Heating Cycle ("PIHC") and is necessary to condition the reservoir prior to air injection and the initiation our patented THAITM technology. The PIHC is programmed to last approximately three months, creating bitumen mobility in the area around the vertical air injection well, and bitumen flow and production in the horizontal well. We are targeting to initiate air injection into the first well pair later in June. Once we have commenced air injection in the first well pair we will begin the PIHC in the second well pair incorporating knowledge of reservoir response characteristics and operational efficiencies from the first well pair. We plan to have all three well pairs on air injection by the end of the year.
_________________ Do not underestimate the difficulties of surviving the transition of peak oil, nor the dangers of global warming. We must embrace nuclear energy and renewables.
Joined: Nov 11, 2004 Posts: 978 Location: Heart of Canada's Oil Country
Posted: Wed Jun 14, 2006 11:45 am Post subject: Re: Canada’s Oil Sands Will Not Prevent PO-Uppsala U
khebab wrote:
FatherOfTwo wrote:
Will Canadian Oil sands prevent PO? No. But Please! If these guys are going to make such absolute statements they need to do more research, and then they would see they can't make such absolute statements.
I was looking for your comments. Do you think you could post a rebuttal to some of their arguments?
What needs to be done to post a rebuttal? _________________ Do not underestimate the difficulties of surviving the transition of peak oil, nor the dangers of global warming. We must embrace nuclear energy and renewables.
Joined: Nov 11, 2004 Posts: 978 Location: Heart of Canada's Oil Country
Posted: Wed Jun 14, 2006 12:31 pm Post subject: Re: Canada’s Oil Sands Will Not Prevent PO-Uppsala U
seahorse wrote:
Fatheroftwo,
I have followed your arguments about THAI, but keep noting its not replacing natural gas yet. So, when or at what rate will THAI replace natural gas and at what costs? By 2012, for example, how many barrels of oil per day will be produced using THAI?
When it comes to traditional in-situ, natural gas is used to heat water to turn it into steam. End of story. There is nothing intrinsic in natural gas that makes it a must. Oilsands players have been using NG because of cost and because its readily available. If either the cost or availability changes, there are other options to generate steam. MSAR (multiphase super atomized residue) from bitumen is one, there are others.
I don't know how many barrels of oil will be produced in 2012 by THAI. If I did, I wouldn't be here on peakoil.com
All I know is the technology is very promising and helps on all fronts: total amount of oil recoverable, emissions, water use and it partially upgrades the oil too. _________________ Do not underestimate the difficulties of surviving the transition of peak oil, nor the dangers of global warming. We must embrace nuclear energy and renewables.
Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 8:15 pm Post subject: Re: Canada’s Oil Sands Will Not Prevent PO-Uppsala U
DantesPeak wrote:
....
Abstract
The report Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management, by Robert L. Hirsch et al., concludes that Peak Oil is going to happen and that worldwide large-scale mitigation efforts are necessary to avoid its possible devastating effects for the world economy.
....
The best mitigation plan is to use the free-market.
Using solar power to process fossil fuels is patently stupid. Better to use the solar power directly and skip the eventual CO2 emissions, but since you don't believe in global warming, I understand your fascination with this. _________________ As long as I am around, there are no worries we have reached "Peak Words"
Joined: Apr 17, 2005 Posts: 2749 Location: Vancouver Island
Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2008 11:56 am Post subject: Re: Canada’s Oil Sands Will Not Prevent PO-Uppsala U
Northern alberta isn't exactly known for it's amazing sunny weather. I distinctly remember the bitter cold and meters of snow on the ground more then the sun. _________________ shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
Posted: Sat Jul 05, 2008 12:50 pm Post subject: Re: Canada’s Oil Sands Will Not Prevent PO-Uppsala U
Our wisefull brightfull civilization decided yesterday to extract uranium with oil fueled trucks and machines. With this uranium, and much more oil, we will produce huge nuclear plants with witch we will make a lot of energy to extract crappy oil with wich we will fuel huger trucks huge like world trade center with which we will extract more uranium from pluto and send it to earth with a warp drive constructed from the reverse engineering work on Roswell's spaceship.
Until this time, we suggest you to buy a horse and learn to grow food in your garden. Thank you, and Merry Christmess!
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