I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1358 Location: Seattle
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:55 pm Post subject: Mexican oil consumption: Going almost nowhere for 7 years
For all the talk about declining production in Cantarell, and about Mexican gasoline subsidies, etc., the interesting truth is that oil consumption in Mexico hasn't really grown at all for the past 7 years or so.
Mexico Oil Consumption Source _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:00 pm Post subject: Re: Mexican oil consumption: Going almost nowhere for 7 year
And your point is? _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:07 pm Post subject: Re: Mexican oil consumption: Going almost nowhere for 7 year
A lot of Mexico is able to live without much oil. We could learn a lot from the way they live down there. We are the ones with the oil addiction problem.
Still, as they say, when the US sneezes, Mexico gets pneumonia.
They will have real trouble with Gulf of Mexico production declining at 34% per year. I heard that 60% of the Mexican government's revenues come from oil production. _________________ Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1358 Location: Seattle
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:13 pm Post subject: Re: Mexican oil consumption: Going almost nowhere for 7 year
MonteQuest wrote:
And your point is?
Just because a developing nation subsidizes the price of gas to their consumers does not mean their consumption is going to increase - a claim which has become almost axiomatic on this board. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:19 pm Post subject: Re: Mexican oil consumption: Going almost nowhere for 7 year
OilFinder2 wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
And your point is?
Just because a developing nation subsidizes the price of gas to their consumers does not mean their consumption is going to increase - a claim which has become almost axiomatic on this board.
It's a good thing the average Mexican only makes a few dollars a day making crap for the U.S. market.
They're really the perfect neighbor.
They work for dirt.
They don't make enough money to buy their most precious resource.
They're easily identified and shot.
Yessir. The master-slave relationship is just dandy.
And hey, given the ubiquitous squalor, the ones who have a job are good and obedient, lest they be cast out among the impoverished masses.
I thought I put this guy on my ignore list. Of course, to be a list it would need more than 1 person on it, no? Is there an OF1? _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Of course, Mexico may also be importing gasoline/diesel from other countries too.
Articles I posted elsewhere today say that Mexico is not prepared to build enough reineries for itself and will continue to import more and more oil products. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Last edited by DantesPeak on Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:21 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4868 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:21 pm Post subject: Re: Mexican oil consumption: Going almost nowhere for 7 year
Revi wrote:
A lot of Mexico is able to live without much oil. We could learn a lot from the way they live down there. We are the ones with the oil addiction problem.
Still, as they say, when the US sneezes, Mexico gets pneumonia.
They will have real trouble with Gulf of Mexico production declining at 34% per year. I heard that 60% of the Mexican government's revenues come from oil production.
Yup. 60%. Think 2010, 18 months from now. Think chaos.
About a fifth of Mexico's population lives in or near the Mexico City metropolitan area. It's a sprawling mass of 20 million, or so, fully dependent upon ICE transportation and airplanes for the shipment of their water, food, and energy into the city. Add the populations of the remaining urbanized populations of Mexico in which 80% of the population resides, and we have a fully oil dependent nation which will be absolutely clobbered when their national production gets near the 2mbd point.
That's the reason for the wall. _________________ Got Dharma?
Joined: Jun 15, 2007 Posts: 591 Location: St.Albert, AB
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:22 pm Post subject: Re: Mexican oil consumption: Going almost nowhere for 7 year
OF2, how can you base your idea on one example? How can you come to any specific conclusion from one individual case study? Any Econ 101 Prof will tell you that by using government funded fuel subsidies, a market CANNOT reach equilibrium. There will always be an imbalance between supply and demand in a situation of government subsidizing.
Subsidies to gasoline would be like wearing a plastic cup as a jock strap for an after school fight. You go in with confidence, you last for one kick to the groin and then you're helplessly thrashed until your chances of reproduction can only be measured with a decimal place.
Subsidies give consumers a false impression of the market and bastardize the market equilibrium.
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1358 Location: Seattle
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:34 pm Post subject: Re: Mexican oil consumption: Going almost nowhere for 7 year
Nicholai wrote:
OF2, how can you base your idea on one example?
You're correct, one example does not make a trend - but then, I didn't say it was a trend, I merely showed it was possible. The reasons for this particular example, however, could be interesting, and I believe eastbay touched on many of them above.
I saw the chart and it reminded me of South Korea and Turkey, both of which, like Mexico, are middle-income nations whose oil demand has been flat over approximately the same time. Not all developing nations have increasing oil consumption. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:54 pm Post subject: Re: Mexican oil consumption: Going almost nowhere for 7 year
OilFinder2 wrote:
Nicholai wrote:
OF2, how can you base your idea on one example?
You're correct, one example does not make a trend - but then, I didn't say it was a trend, I merely showed it was possible. The reasons for this particular example, however, could be interesting, and I believe eastbay touched on many of them above.
I saw the chart and it reminded me of South Korea and Turkey, both of which, like Mexico, are middle-income nations whose oil demand has been flat over approximately the same time. Not all developing nations have increasing oil consumption.
I already explained in the SK thread that SK had been exporting a lot of gasoline, and as internal consumption rises, exports to the US and other places were recently back or cut off (to the US). I guess you didn't even bother to read the responses to your own posts or other posts in the thread.
Looking at oil consumption without considering net product imports/exports is useless. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Last edited by DantesPeak on Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:56 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3613 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:55 pm Post subject: Re: Mexican oil consumption: Going almost nowhere for 7 year
Just Google 'Mexico corruption' and you'll find out why consumption isn't the issue here.
Quote:
Quote:
The culture of tolerance of "mordidas", bribes and extortion maintains the country in poverty and makes it lose growth and investment opportunities. Families with the lowest income are the ones that feel it the most, and spend up to a quarter of their salaries on bribes when attempting to get goods or services from the State.
This startling revelation comes from the Mexican Secretary of Civil Service, German Martinez Cazares, in a speech at the international conference “Ethics in Civil Service and the Battle Against Corruption", which took place this week in Mexico. Martinez Cazares says that families earning minimum wage are likely to spend up to 24% of their total income on bribes.
The tax on Pemex is down to 40%, ostensibly to encourage exploration. Since Pemex has 11,000 employees who do nothing but twiddle their thumbs...well, do the math.
The military has had to stamp out a few rebellions recently, too.
MEXICO CITY — Where did all the oil money go? Mexico, many here believed, would be swimming in petrodollars by now thanks to record global oil prices, nearly double what they were a year ago. Some experts pegged the potential windfall for Mexico at more than $20 billion this year if prices stay high. But the Mexican government announced last month that not only was there no surplus oil money, but that Pemex, Mexico's notoriously inefficient nationalized oil company, had actually lost nearly $1 billion in the year's first three months.
It didn't take long for conspiracy theories to start flying.
Opposition politicians accuse President Felipe Calderon of playing politics with petrodollars in order to advance his proposal to allow U.S. and foreign firms to have a stake in the national oil concern.
Few in Mexico, long accustomed to public corruption on a massive scale, seem surprised that billions of dollars had seemingly slipped into the ether.
"Through some magic trick all that money disappeared, and I'm sure that in a couple years it will appear in the Swiss bank accounts of our leaders," said Juan Torres, 38, a Mexico City telephone company technician. "The money gets stolen term after term, and that's why they say being a politician in Mexico is better than having your own company."
Mexico is an unstable nation as it is. Imagine reading about rebels blowing up pipelines in Minnesota if you don't believe me. When the oil revenue dries up the nation will likely unravel. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
The Dude Is Not In: Leave A Message After The Beep.
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1358 Location: Seattle
Posted: Mon Jul 07, 2008 9:05 pm Post subject: Re: Mexican oil consumption: Going almost nowhere for 7 year
Here's a few more reasonably similar examples.
It almost seems that, once a nation reaches a certain per capita income level these days, their oil consumption starts to plateau. There are exceptions, of course.
Hard to say exactly what that level is - seems to be around a per-capita GDP of ~$10,000, but that's just a guideline.
Chile - which has been just about the best-performing economy in Latin America for several years now
Colombia - this has been a fast-growing economy for a few years now, too. Plus they've got somewhat sizable amounts of oil. But I'm sure their almost-civil-war cut consumption for a while. Still, the war has calmed down for the past few years, but their oil consumption still hasn't really risen.
Additionally, if you look at Taiwan and Indonesia, their consumption has basically stopped growing or fallen for the past 2-3 years, but I'm not sure that's long-enough yet to make it a trend. _________________ Abundance - what a concept!
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