I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.
Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2006 3:14 pm Post subject: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return
One of the things that has continuously puzzled me is that amongst the optimistic solutions posited to solve hydrocarbon depletion, I see an assumption that we have, or will have, the time to mitigate the consequences of peak oil. Mitigation, of any sort, will take time and a lot of money. And it will have to be applied world-wide, not just in the first world.
The Hirsch Report details that we need a 10-20 year crash mitigation plan in place before the peak.
The only crash plan I see in place at the moment is one to escalate the debt beyond the comprehension of man.
If it takes decades to prepare for this, and we have just a few years at best by most accounts and predictions, why is it that people continue to think complex, technical, and highly capital intensive solutions can be developed and implemented literally overnight?
{edit: literally overnight is a hyperbole}
If peak oil is at our door, and in planning terms—tomorrow, are we not beyond the point of no return? _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Last edited by MonteQuest on Fri Mar 03, 2006 5:32 pm; edited 2 times in total
Joined: Sep 06, 2004 Posts: 5315 Location: Smalltown New Zealand
Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2006 3:21 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return
MonteQuest wrote:
The only crash plan I see in place at the moment is one to escalate the debt beyond the comprehension of man.
I see it as a grab what you can before the gig falls apart. _________________ "Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2006 3:25 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return
rogerhb wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
The only crash plan I see in place at the moment is one to escalate the debt beyond the comprehension of man.
I see it as a grab what you can before the gig falls apart.
Yes, it's like intuitively, everyone knows we are near the "peak" (and I don't mean just oil) so "get while the getting is good."
Are we really just lemmings? _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Sep 06, 2004 Posts: 5315 Location: Smalltown New Zealand
Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2006 3:31 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return
MonteQuest wrote:
Are we really just lemmings?
I see it as a very uncoordinated smash and grab. Where lot's of individual actors have stuck their heads up and thought "christ, that looks bad" and they are all carving out what they can get using whatever resources they can command. The rats leaving the sinking ship is a good metaphor, they've given up hope on making the world a better place and just seeing what they can do to get themselves higher up the ladder to add some security to what ever turns out.
I'm doing the same thing in my preparations ( obviously on a smaller scale, more humane and legally) so don't see why others who realise this has a 50% chance of happening would not do the same.
The giveaway is that the US has basically torn up every international treaty as if it's never going to need them again. _________________ "Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
Joined: Sep 17, 2005 Posts: 176 Location: The Netherlands
Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2006 3:32 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return
MonteQuest wrote:
If it takes decades to prepare for this, and we have just a few years at best by most accounts and predictions, why is it that people continue to think complex, technical, and highly capital intensive solutions can be developed and implemented literally overnight?
If peak oil is at our door, and in planning terms—tomorrow, are we not beyond the point of no return?
Why is it that people continue to think solutions can be developed and implemented overnight? They're fooling themselves, nobody (including me) wants to think that our future won't be so bright. But some people (again including me) tend to rationalize more than the average joe and will know what will happen in the next decade or so.
I do think, though, that we passed that point a long time ago. We should've made the change when oil was still in abundance available (you get what i mean). Above all, i think it's human nature to seek a drastic solution only when faced with a drastic problem. A drastic solution is needed for sure, even if we'd made the change 10 years ago, but we're not yet faced with a drastic problem, that is, the problem is there but we (humanity) can't 'see' it yet.
Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2006 3:40 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return
Gov. Schweitzer told me on "60" minutes he'd provide all the coal gasoline we want for $1 a gallon.
My wingnut friend at the coffee table this morning told me that we'd just build pebble-bed reactors and make all the hydrogen we'll ever need.
President Bush says we'll just switch to wood chips and switch grass.
My local paper informed me that there would be no energy problems if the environmentalists would just quit protecting the Arctic Wildlife Refuge from drilling.
Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2006 3:43 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return
rogerhb wrote:
The rats leaving the sinking ship is a good metaphor, they've given up hope on making the world a better place and just seeing what they can do to get themselves higher up the ladder to add some security to what ever turns out.
Yes, people are moving into investments that they can profit from in a resource scarce world. But, as we know, what is profitable is not necessarily sustainable, in fact, more likely it is only profitable because the true costs of production have been externalized.
The free market is our enemy, not our friend. The lure of profit can not be the driving and guiding force for a post peak oil world.
And even it is was the best impetus, I believe the market signals to act will come too late this time out. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2006 4:11 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return
MonteQuest wrote:
The free market is our enemy, not our friend. The lure of profit can not be the driving and guiding force for a post peak oil world.
Yes, absolutely. The free market allows the expression of primitive survival instincts – “more better faster for me and mine” – without requiring anywhere near enough “smart” or “wise” or “long term”.
This instinct is built into all living things. Humans, with their near-infinite power to stack the odds in their favor, have gone so far overboard that it’s going to implode.
The moderating force in this can be called “intelligence”, but intelligence is what gives humans the ability to be stupid.
How far off is “Peak Stupidity”, or have we passed that one as well? _________________ Good night, and good luck...
Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2006 4:24 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return
Thats the biggest thing for me right now: taxes. Give us all our money so at least the ones who want to invest in an ecological paradigm can invest ALL our earnings into it. Im finding out tho that even the most ardent "haters" of the current paradigm. the ones screaming constantly about how bad it is do not seem to want choices on taxes. Im not sure why. In my opinion its all we can do right now is invest all our extra earnings into sustainable systems. we cant do that now and have to stay in the lemmings march for longer.
Joined: Aug 17, 2005 Posts: 582 Location: Portugal
Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2006 4:45 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return
MonteQuest wrote:
If peak oil is at our door, and in planning terms—tomorrow, are we not beyond the point of no return?
Possibly.
We know from experience that humans are much better at "riding the gravy train" than at planning ahead and making rational choices. That should omen a tragic ending. However, History has the priceless virtue of surprising us when we least expect it.
Let's see what it has in stock for us this time...
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 13064 Location: naive idiot fantasy world
Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2006 4:47 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return
holmes wrote:
Thats the biggest thing for me right now: taxes. Give us all our money so at least the ones who want to invest in an ecological paradigm can invest ALL our earnings into it. Im finding out tho that even the most ardent "haters" of the current paradigm. the ones screaming constantly about how bad it is do not seem to want choices on taxes. Im not sure why. In my opinion its all we can do right now is invest all our extra earnings into sustainable systems. we cant do that now and have to stay in the lemmings march for longer.
Maybe you're misunderstanding them.
You're welcome to do all you can to do away with taxes. Knock yourself out. Personally, I think it is pointless to even discuss the issue, so I mainly just ignore it, work around it, get on with my life. Sure, I'd like all that money, but then I'd have to fix the roads myself, etc, things I'm used to having others take care of for me. We'll have plenty of time to deal with all that soon enough. You can get around paying various taxes in various ways, and certainly you should try to do that, it's to your advantage, and legal. But as far as trying to abolish taxes at this point in time, personally, I have other fish to fry. _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow." - jboogy
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