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I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.

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Peakoil.com :: View topic - BP Review shows Global Production Drop
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BP Review shows Global Production Drop
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pup55
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 6:59 am    Post subject: BP Review shows Global Production Drop Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Quote:
June 11 (Bloomberg) -- Global oil production fell for the first time in five years in 2007 and reserves also declined as prices rose to records, BP Plc said in its annual Statistical Review of World Energy.

Crude oil production dropped 0.2 percent to 81.533 million barrels a day last year, from 81.659 million barrels a day in 2006, the London-based company said today. Proved reserves were 1,237.9 billion barrels at the end of last year, compared with a revised total of 1,239.5 billion barrels for 2006.


Bloomberg

Ah, my favorite day of the year. The day the BP Review comes out.
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Eli
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 7:01 am    Post subject: Re: BP Review shows Global Production Drop Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

ha, lol

I was just about to post this topic.
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firestarter
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 7:14 am    Post subject: Re: BP Review shows Global Production Drop Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Certainly FreddyH will swoop down from on high with statistical sword in hand and correct those self interested buffoons Razz
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roccman
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 7:22 am    Post subject: Re: BP Review shows Global Production Drop Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

So it continues.
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Fishman
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 8:29 am    Post subject: Re: BP Review shows Global Production Drop Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Hard to make the standard " its a demand problem" with this data. I thought high prices were suppossed to bring on more production (sarcasm).
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TheDude
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 8:41 am    Post subject: Re: BP Review shows Global Production Drop Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Fishman wrote:
Hard to make the standard " its a demand problem" with this data. I thought high prices were suppossed to bring on more production (sarcasm).


I agree. (no sarcasm)
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burtonridr
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 9:26 am    Post subject: Re: BP Review shows Global Production Drop Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

<------ (lots of sarcastic remarks under breath)
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Twilight
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 10:56 am    Post subject: Re: BP Review shows Global Production Drop Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

The usual spin emerged about 41 years of reserves at current rate of production. Can the current rate of production be maintained for 41 years? Hmm...
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pup55
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 10:59 am    Post subject: Re: BP Review shows Global Production Drop Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Highlights:

Global oil production decreased 0.2%. Global fuel consumption increased 1.1%. The "gap" between supply and demand is about 4 million barrels per day.

Mexico: Production declined about 5% but internal demand increased 2.8%. I will calculate the trajectory of the curves on this to see the point at which they become a net exporter.

Iran: Production increased 0.4%, internal demand increased 0.4%.

Saudi: production decreased 4.1%, demand increased 7%. Quite awhile before the ELM takes that one over, however.

Production declines: Mexico; -5.5%, Norway -7.7%, Venezuela -7.2%, the UK was flat at 0.2% increase, Indonesia -4.9%

Consumption increases: China: 4.1%, South Korea 1.9%, Canada 2.7%, Argentina 12%, Brazil 5.8%

Consumption decreases: Germany -9%, Japan -3.5%

Russia: About even on consumption, 2.2% increase in production.

The US was about even on both consumption and production.

Angola increased production 300,000 bpd.
Iraq: still continues to be a miracle. 7.3% increased production, nearly 200,000 bpd over and above last year.
Azerbaijan: increased about 200,000 bpd also, 31% over last year.

Kuwait declined about 2% in production. That's a little ominous.
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Twilight
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 11:21 am    Post subject: Re: BP Review shows Global Production Drop Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

pup55 wrote:
Kuwait declined about 2% in production. That's a little ominous.

Their output has grown considerably in recent years, maybe some rework brought temporary relief. Their consumption growth next year will rescale that graph and net exports should dip as a result. We know they have restated their reserves to half of what was previously claimed, so a persistent decline trend is no longer so far away.
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nth
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 11:39 am    Post subject: Re: BP Review shows Global Production Drop Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Germany decrease by 9%. How they do that?
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KingM
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 12:02 pm    Post subject: Re: BP Review shows Global Production Drop Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

nth wrote:
Germany decrease by 9%. How they do that?


Right, if the US had done that, the price of oil would have dropped like a stone. But I just can't see how that is possible without government intervention.
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Eli
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 1:00 pm    Post subject: Re: BP Review shows Global Production Drop Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

The French have reduced their usage too over the years.

They do that by building an excellent mass transit system and a working rail system.


What do we do in the US?

We build more highways and expand the lanes even though we cannot even keep the old ones in good shape.

Here in the US we have passenger rail sharing the tracks with freight.

Basically we suck, and have been operating the false idea that oil would be cheap forever. We will reduce our demand by laying people off.
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shortonoil
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 4:04 pm    Post subject: Re: BP Review shows Global Production Drop Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

Eli said:
Quote:

What do we do in the US?

We build more highways and expand the lanes even though we cannot even keep the old ones in good shape.


The US has long had an agreement with the House of Saud. We supplied them with arms and made sure their Royal Family stayed in power (money) and they agreed to control the world market in our behalf. They even used their oil to bankrupt the old USSR for us.

They agreed to supply us with cheap oil, and the government agreed to not “interfere” in that market. This was all well and good with the oil, banking, and automotive industries.

Now that the shoe is moving to the other foot; oil is getting expensive, and they can’t control the price anymore, how long will they be honoring their promise to keep us supplied with cheap oil?

Looking at the delivery of recent supplies, and recent rhetoric out of the Kingdom, it doesn’t appear that it will be for long. Funny thing about that, there really is no honor among thieves.
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Graeme
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 8:18 pm    Post subject: Re: BP Review shows Global Production Drop Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote

BP chairman says oil industry did not prepare for unexpected demand surge

Quote:
"The high price that we have today is caused, in my view, by the inability of the industry to easily supply rising demand and this isn't because of the lack of available resources but because of inadequate investment in both production and complex refining capacity," he said.


Sutherland said he expects existing proven oil resources to last at least another 43 to 45 years with significant finds still to be located.


IHT

The last part is inconsistent with a recent announcement by Total, who state that world oil production will peak by 2020. If oil companies can't get it right, then the IEA should provide a better answer later this year. Governments around the world ought to act on advice from this unbiased, reputable organisation!
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