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Twilight
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 Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 5:51 pm Post subject: Replacing Iran's oil |
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With reference to this EIA country brief for Iran and those of the countries listed, here are the quantities of oil various nations import from Iran and the proportion of their total consumption. I have bolded America's key allies.
Top Iranian Crude Oil Exports, 2006 (Thousand bbl/d)
Japan - 448 (8.5%)
China - 335 (4.5%)
India* - 302 (11.5%)
South Korea - 204 (9.3%)
Italy - 191 (11.2%)
Turkey - 179 (29.0%)
France - 135 (6.9%)
South Africa - 127 (24.5%)
Taiwan - 117 (11.2%)
Greece - 117 (26.7%)
Other - 345
Total Exports: 2,500
* India's imports only reported for April-August 2006.
This is to make the point that it is not China that really stands to lose in the event of a crisis, as many on this board assume without checking the facts. In the event of a crisis that shuts down Iranian oil exports, America's three key allies in the Far East will have to source a considerable quantity of oil from elsewhere if they are to rebuild inevitable draws from storage, and a number of other countries will have even more pressing concerns. This will be difficult to accomplish in today's tight market, far more challenging than the last time special measures were required and passed without incident, during the invasion of Iraq in 2003.
It is possible that some of the countries listed have already reduced their imports from Iran to minimise the consequences of any disruption that may take place. However, inevitably it will have been at the expense of someone else's energy security. It is extremely unlikely Saudi Arabia has sufficient spare capacity to make up such a shortfall.
Therefore bear in mind that if you believe hostilities will be intentionally opened with Iran, it is unlikely to come without a mitigation strategy that would quickly become obvious, if not detectable already. Failure to produce an argument covering this requirement amounts to a suggestion that countries like Taiwan would simply be placed on the chopping block and attended to on an ad hoc basis in the aftermath.
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energycity
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Joined: Apr 22, 2008
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| Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 5:58 pm Post subject: Re: Replacing Iran's oil |
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Good post.
A lot of America's "friends" on that list. |
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eastbay
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| Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 5:58 pm Post subject: Re: Replacing Iran's oil |
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Holy cow. Gasoline is already over $11 US p/g in Turkey and they import 27% of their oil from Iran. The prospects of the USA or Israel initiating an action shutting down that oil must have them greatly concerned.
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energycity
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| Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 6:07 pm Post subject: Re: Replacing Iran's oil |
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3 members of the EU on the list (and another potential member).
Greece - 26.7% !!
Oh dear. Fingers crossed.  |
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SILENTTODD
Intermediate Crude
Joined: May 06, 2006
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| Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 6:23 pm Post subject: Re: Replacing Iran's oil |
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Why are we talking about replacing Iran's oil? It is not the enemy of the United States. And no attack upon it by Israel can occur without the permission of the United States.
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Twilight
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| Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:56 am Post subject: Re: Replacing Iran's oil |
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| SILENTTODD wrote: | | Why are we talking about replacing Iran's oil? |
Precisely. Why are people talking as if there is any prospect of a first strike on Iran? With the facts as they are, there do not appear to be any. Unless someone wants to suggest how those countries are going to stay supplied, and at whose expense.
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Nickel
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| Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 6:08 am Post subject: Re: Replacing Iran's oil |
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| energycity wrote: | | 3 members of the EU on the list (and another potential member). |
More significantly still, four members of NATO.
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Nickel
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| Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 6:12 am Post subject: Re: Replacing Iran's oil |
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| SILENTTODD wrote: | | Why are we talking about replacing Iran's oil? It is not the enemy of the United States. And no attack upon it by Israel can occur without the permission of the United States. |
You might not have noticed, and I suppose there's good reason not to, but Israel is not technically a US state, and if they feel the US isn't toeing the line and they've come to parting of the ways, there's no question in my mind Israel will do exactly what Israel thinks is good for Israel, if the rest of us have our cities laid waste and our nations turned to ash. Do you doubt it? Is there a more arrogant, self-interested country on Earth these days? And yes, I am including the US in that muster.
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SILENTTODD
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| Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:14 pm Post subject: Re: Replacing Iran's oil |
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| Nickel wrote: | | SILENTTODD wrote: | | Why are we talking about replacing Iran's oil? It is not the enemy of the United States. And no attack upon it by Israel can occur without the permission of the United States. |
You might not have noticed, and I suppose there's good reason not to, but Israel is not technically a US state, and if they feel the US isn't toeing the line and they've come to parting of the ways, there's no question in my mind Israel will do exactly what Israel thinks is good for Israel, if the rest of us have our cities laid waste and our nations turned to ash. Do you doubt it? Is there a more arrogant, self-interested country on Earth these days? And yes, I am including the US in that muster. |
Personally I believe the current American administration is at the beck and call of the Judaic cult called Zionism in Israel, analogist with Al Qaeda in Islam. Both are extremes, both are full of mythologies
they will send the rest of world to its death to fulfill.
I am not a Jew; I am not believer in Mohammed. Why should I be drawn into or act on their Mythologies?
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Last edited by SILENTTODD on Sat Aug 02, 2008 1:55 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Nickel
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| Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:24 pm Post subject: Re: Replacing Iran's oil |
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| SILENTTODD wrote: | Personally I believe the current American administration is at the beck and call of the Judaic cult call Zionism in Israel, analogist with Al Qaeda in Islam. Both are extremes, both are full of mythologies
they will send the rest of world to its death to fulfill.
I am not a Jew; I am not believer in Mohammed. Why should I be drawn into or act on their Mythologies? |
I would tend to agree. Personally I'd have a much easier time taking Israel's six if Israel's twelve weren't doing all it could to piss off everyone around it at every point of the clock. Threatening war every time someone else starts to look strong... treating the Palestinians pretty much the same as Jews were treated in the Warsaw Ghetto... how can this be? How can Israel have taken so many pages from the book of the Nazis, the very people who once set out to destroy them?
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burtonridr
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Joined: Aug 03, 2007
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| Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 3:23 pm Post subject: Re: Replacing Iran's oil |
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| Nickel wrote: |
I would tend to agree. Personally I'd have a much easier time taking Israel's six if Israel's twelve weren't doing all it could to piss off everyone around it at every point of the clock. Threatening war every time someone else starts to look strong... treating the Palestinians pretty much the same as Jews were treated in the Warsaw Ghetto... how can this be? How can Israel have taken so many pages from the book of the Nazis, the very people who once set out to destroy them? |
I dont have all my facts straight on this subject, but what about when they were being bombarded by missiles on a regular basis?
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Nickel
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| Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:08 pm Post subject: Re: Replacing Iran's oil |
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| burtonridr wrote: | | I dont have all my facts straight on this subject, but what about when they were being bombarded by missiles on a regular basis? |
So let me see... the Palestinians have been evicted from their land... Palestine, as it's been called by the West for centuries on the sensible basis that it was full of Palestinians... for something like two generations now -- within living memory, in other words -- but it's unconscionable that they should be upset about that and react to it... Whereas it's just peachy for the Jews, who were by-and-large evicted from the place while Jesus's sandal prints were still in the sand, to show up and claim the place as their own and get all exorcised that these same Palestinians are upset about THEIR eviction... have I got you right?
Alright, be that as it may... what exactly has that to do with Iran wanting reactors so they don't have the BURN the oil that's all they have to sell to the rest of the world and make a living from, and Israel's determination to start a third world war to prevent it?
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burtonridr
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Joined: Aug 03, 2007
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| Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 10:07 am Post subject: Re: Replacing Iran's oil |
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| Nickel wrote: |
So let me see... the Palestinians have been evicted from their land... Palestine, as it's been called by the West for centuries on the sensible basis that it was full of Palestinians... for something like two generations now -- within living memory, in other words -- but it's unconscionable that they should be upset about that and react to it... Whereas it's just peachy for the Jews, who were by-and-large evicted from the place while Jesus's sandal prints were still in the sand, to show up and claim the place as their own and get all exorcised that these same Palestinians are upset about THEIR eviction... have I got you right? |
Ok, I get you point above now.
| Nickel wrote: |
Alright, be that as it may... what exactly has that to do with Iran wanting reactors so they don't have the BURN the oil that's all they have to sell to the rest of the world and make a living from, and Israel's determination to start a third world war to prevent it? |
I was just curious about your statement that Israel is the one picking the fights, not the Palestinians.
That part of the world is just so screwed up beyond belief......
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