I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.
Joined: Jun 15, 2007 Posts: 591 Location: St.Albert, AB
Posted: Tue Jun 17, 2008 2:12 am Post subject: Well Gentlemen, help me choose
So I got pretty drunk tonight...more or less due to the fact that I've spent the past few months reading and researching peak oil without much serious thought to my own personal situation. I talked about moving to ecovillages and I talked about doing this and that, but population overshoot and economic collapse remained concepts of another dimension but, now, I'm finally starting to realize that these concepts are becoming a reality. You'll have to excuse me if my sentence structure is off at the moment.
But now that oil has doubled in the last 12 months and the evidence continues to mount that the world has peaked in total petroleum production, I'm starting to get very anxious. I'm loosing sleep and I'm getting drunk much more often. My English teacher told me this would happen and I scoffed at the idea. God damn I hate to admit he was right.
I have several bug-outs to choose from and I've saved about 10,000$ so far to get me there (and have enough to buy whatever I may need in this new location). I hope to have closer to between 15 and 20 thousand (Canadian) before I leave to visit each of these locations. Help me weight the positives and negatives.
a) Something close to home. It's near Calgary Alberta, a small eco farm that one of my philosophy teachers has made. He is definitely peak oil aware and he understands that mobs of zombies may come to his doorstep. He knows he has to be 100% self sufficient and he has built his far in a location that is almost IMPOSSIBLE to find without a map. He has a myriad of green technologies to help him get by during the day (ex. a hand held iPod charger) but he knows that he can do without once they no longer function. He has built a beautiful house and he only requires you (if you wish to move in) to build an add-on to the current home. That should be around 10,000$. He is studying permaculture like crazy and he is learning how to live off the grid completely. Everything is built and ready to go and he plans to move in sometime around August.
Problems: He is around 65 years old and not in perfect shape. There is no river near by and Alberta is forecast to become MUCH drier with less precipitation. Another, it is only him...without a group of people to socialize with I think I would go crazy (crazier?). Besides that, I can't really see any problems but everything I have learned has been through him, so I still need to see the location for myself (I plan to do this before I leave for Europe). I believe, although I still have to see it first, that there are very few trees around his property although he has a beautiful view of the Rocky Mountains far off in the distance.
2) Mont Radar: There is an ecovillage south of Quebec City in the rural townships of Quebec. It is a former military installation and focuses on becoming a 'green community'. It is decently far away from any major population center and is isolated in that roves of Americans are unlikely to come north due to the language barrier (few Quebecois in this region speak any English). The area is beaufitul hill nearby and the community does have a large garden to grow food although not nearly enough for the roughly 30 members in the community. They allow outsiders to build homes inside and those who live in the community offer to build the homes if they are paid for labour. These people are NOT peak oil aware from my understanding although they are striving to get 'off the grip' and hope to build a green house and other self sustaining 'stuff'. Another thing, I love Quebecois culture. I have always admired Quebec and I would feel very happy to be here. I have called the "president" of the ecovillage and he is a very friendly individual. It is a rural community. (Just shooting out info)
Problems: Not peak oil aware. Do I educate them...do I watch as they see society collapse and guide them to the right direction? Do I go there (around November) and try to push them to build greenhouses and expand their garden (they have about four hectares to grow crops). They have a website to feel free to google it and see for yourself.
3) Denmark: There is an ecovillage called Svanholm, an island called Samso and another island called Bornholm. Svanholm is 50 km west of Copenhagen near the town of Skibby. It is the largest commune in Europe. It is likely not peak oil aware although I am not sure. It sounds like it is fairly self sustaining although I don't believe they are completely off the grid. They grow all their own food and pool 80% of their finances. I believe they have around 100 people living there at the moment. Major problems include the massive population center of Copenhagen which is just a train ride away. Other than that, it appears like a nice community to be involved in. I am of Danish herritage (a Danish name) and would not have major problems getting citizenship (at most, 5 years). Samso is an island in Denmark very near the sea level. It is powered entirely by wind power and is used as a pilot project by the Danish government to find a sustainable lifestyle for a moder community. Samso is a large island for its population of roughly 5000 people although, again, it is VERY near sea level. If I lived there, I would probably have to buy a house (aquire debt). Bornholm is an island far from Denmark with a population of 50,000 people. It is very beautiful with a good climate. I could probably work on a farm for an older couple or something of sorts. No bands of zombies, good growing season, nice beaches, small population, good farming area. Sort of the Newfoundland of Denmark. I will visit all of these locations on my trip to Europe.
4) Keuruu Finland: I have a thread in regard to this ecovillage but in summation it is 300km North of Helsinki and NOT peak oil aware. It has a population of around 25 persons (including children) and is moderately off the grid although would see huge changes if there was a total meltdown. Not a large population in the surrounding area although moderately large cities nearby (by moderately large I mean around 100,000) It is in a beautiful area although I think life in rural Finland would be quite boring. Finland has a small population and a good latitude during massive changes in Europe's general climate. The language barrier will likely keep people from coming here. Finland also has no natural gas or oil reserves to make it a strategic target.
[img]http://www.ekokyla.tk/[/img]
Problems: The language is VERY difficult. Citizenship is difficult and requires military service.
5) Norway: There is an ecovillage north of Oslo in the Hurdal region. It is a farming region with beautiful soil for farming and starting a self sufficient lifestyle. It is very similar to Canada's climate although slightly warmer thanks to the Gulf Stream. They build straw bail homes and are working towards being self sufficient. Norway has (atm) 350 billion $ saved from the North Sea oil field and other oil projects. This is expected to grow by over double in the next few years. Norway has a strong economy and a foreign demographic of around 10%.
Problems: (I think) it is around 10,000$ Canadian to become a member of the community. It is not peak oil aware. Several thousand people in the area (possible zombies or looters)
They might not accept me (just like in Finland)
Other ideas with Norway: Living near my friend in the Karmoy region. It is very warm, around 100,000 people on the island. My friend says it is a 'sustainable lifestyle' although I await to see. There is a partnership between Canada and Norway to get work permits for young people in Norway. I could get a job here and a small apartment but again I would be relying on the society.
Problems: I am not self sufficient, I rely on others. Bad farm land in the region but, since Norway was the second largest seafood exporter next to China I believe that a diet of seafood would be possible to sustain the population although I am growing skeptical by the day. Citizenship could be a problem.
I want those of you who have researched EACH and EVERY place I have offered to give me a thorough breakdown of why each location is ideal or not. I will visit each location regardless to find where I am best accepted and where i hope to live during the crash....I hope this message was slightly coherent and my liquor consumption didn't make me TOO irrational...
Joined: Jun 28, 2005 Posts: 523 Location: The Netherlands
Posted: Tue Jun 17, 2008 4:18 am Post subject: Re: Well Gentlement, help me choose
In planning for moving to Europe you did not consider that at least within the EU you are required to have enough income for being self reliant for a period of five years. Well, at least, for one year to begin with. But during those first five years you should not in anyway have to rely on the local social security system.
Norway is not in the EU, but I guess the law won't be much different there.
So I suggest you first check the financial and legal requirements per country. The exact sum required may differ from country to country.
Anyway, considering this, a community which requires you first pay $ 10,000 may not be the wisest option.
$ 10,000 (Canadian) amounts to € 6,306, which is certainly far below the required minimum for one year. May well be not even half of that.
So you would have to find a job as quickly as you can. _________________ The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.
Al Bartlett
Last edited by waegari on Tue Jun 17, 2008 4:39 am; edited 2 times in total
Posted: Tue Jun 17, 2008 4:23 am Post subject: Re: Well Gentlement, help me choose
Hello Nicholai
As a canuck(bc) living in Denmark I would recommend that if you have the oppourtunity to move here and get citizenship, than do it. The society is, as compared to other industrial countries, much better positioned to transition to a post-peak world. Although it still is an oil exporting country, thay have heavily invested in co-gen plants that burn garbge, straw, forest waste to make electricity and heat. My own home is heated this way. 20 % of our electricity comes from wind and they are expanding it to 30%. Farming is still big here and DK is a food exporting nation. Farms are close to centers and organic farming is getting bigger. It is easy to live here without a car beacuse of the compact towns, good urban planning and well functioning public transport. I live 30 km from Copenhagen and commute daily on the train so I speak from experience.
I would like to meet you when you are in DK so if you are interested say so in your reponse and I'll send you my contact data. We have a small B&B business so you could stay a night or two with us. www.soviro.dk
Kind Regards
David
Joined: Oct 16, 2004 Posts: 1480 Location: Appalachian Foothills of Virginia
Posted: Tue Jun 17, 2008 4:39 am Post subject: Re: Well Gentlement, help me choose
Nicolai,
It sounds like you have the curse of too many choices in the post oil world. You have researched well, and are to be applauded for that.
Quote:
I want those of you who have researched EACH and EVERY place I have offered to give me a thorough breakdown of why each location is ideal or not.
This is a lot to ask of those who are deep in their own research, planning, and preparation. Plus, you are the most intimately aware of the details of each, so would be the best to make the comparison. There may be more like dday who are aware of the situations in the areas you are examining, and can provide more information to help you with your alternative analysis. One thing you can do is to thoughtfully make up a list of criteria and weigh them by their importance. Then for each location, score each criteria on a 1-10 basis, then multiply that score by their respective weighing factor. Total up the scores and that should give you a barometer by which to steer.
Joined: Jun 28, 2005 Posts: 523 Location: The Netherlands
Posted: Tue Jun 17, 2008 4:45 am Post subject: Re: Well Gentlement, help me choose
You also need to consider that there's already a growing number of Central Europeans moving to live permanently in Norway. Of course, Norway is a big country, but this steady influx does mean an increasing stress on housing market and so on. Norway is now doing well because of oil production, but how long will that last? _________________ The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.
Posted: Tue Jun 17, 2008 5:37 am Post subject: Re: Well Gentlement, help me choose
We've discussed this before, but are you certain that it must be an isolated bug-out? Are you sure that the Canadian society is going to collapse into anarchy? If not, I'd really ponder learning a practical trade that will be in demand when there is no cheap energy around. Right now I'm even considering a low-paying manual job that will remain necessary for the food distribution chain even after PO. Even better if you're a professional.
I think every society is going to face a severe economic depression before the zombies go on rampage (if they're going to go at all). How long would your agricultural community remain self-sufficient when fertilizer, farm equipment etc. cost much more? Could it sell some of its food (which will be in higher demand too)? _________________ "The progress of civilization:
bondage --> spiritual faith --> courage --> liberty --> abundance --> complacency --> apathy --> dependence --> bondage." - Alexander Tyler
Posted: Tue Jun 17, 2008 7:26 am Post subject: Re: Well Gentlement, help me choose
This reminds me of the Arabic fable . . .
Guy in Medina is told by a fortune teller that Death is coming for him that night.
So he gets on his horse and rides for hours to get to Mecca.
Later that night, he arrives in Mecca, opens the door of his hotel, and is staring straight in the face of Death.
Death says, "I was starting to worry you weren't going to make it." _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Joined: May 07, 2008 Posts: 400 Location: Chaska, MN
Posted: Tue Jun 17, 2008 7:59 am Post subject: Re: Well Gentlement, help me choose
Nicholai wrote:
I have several bug-outs to choose from and I've saved about 10,000$ so far to get me there (and have enough to buy whatever I may need in this new location). Nicholai
I think many of us on this forum would agree that it would be much more prudent for you to spend a chunk of that cash on doing preps NOW. It is not smart to rely on being able to purchase goods in a post-collapse world. The prices you will pay will be much much higher....if any products are even available for purchase.
Spend more time learning survival skills and doing personal preps, that way no matter where you end up you will be prepared.
Joined: Jun 15, 2007 Posts: 591 Location: St.Albert, AB
Posted: Tue Jun 17, 2008 11:36 am Post subject: Re: Well Gentlement, help me choose
Thank you for your questions and comments so far. In response to each:
Waegari: I have already spoken with the Danish Embassy in Canada and getting a work permit is not very difficult although it should be done while I am in Canada. The ecovillage in Denmark will let me stay for 1 month without any cost whatsoever. They grow their own food and number around 100 persons. I was pondering last night and being in a group of 100 is a decent situation to be in considering strength in numbers and their understanding of a sustainable lifestyle at the present time.
Skyemoor: I'll try to do some more running or spend some time with the dog. I'm working a great deal at the moment and that seems to help me keep my mind off track. I will weigh each location once I have visited them since it seems that it is getting more and more difficult to judge simply from websites and speculative second hand information.
I could start taking a course or two at the local college but again I am trying to save up as much as possible for my trip. I hope to get a formal trade once I am in Europe. I think I will try for carpentry or farming. Farming is the obvious first since I do NOT want to rely on a local food supply.
Cashmere: The fable scares me but I'll keep it in the back of my mind while I prepare to go. My home in Canada is in a bad position once the crap hits the fan. My Dad is ready to retire, we live in the suburbs, we have a cabin north of here with about 600 cabins on one tiny lake (it would be fished-out within a week).
pup55: I'll try for Denmark but it is important to remember that Denmark is just north of 85 million Germans and, if you know Danish history, Germany tends to forget there is a border from time to time. 6 million people in a low lying country could pose a problem, but from the sounds of it, Denmark has a good social safety net to help brace for the initial pains of post-peak.
biofuel13: I intend to BUY my way into one of these ecovillages, islands etc. If I go to Norway I would get a job immediately. If in Bornholm, I would find someone to work with on a farm (an elderly couple who needs a strapping young lad to carry around the hay etc.) In Svanholm, they have working groups which are divided up from the general pool of people to chop wood, cut vegetables, milk the cows. Svanholm is like a little boot camp for hippies. Finland I would also try to get in and donate a few thousand euros if I found it to be the PERFECT location.
Pretorian: My name is Danish to begin with. I still have relatives in Denmark who share my last name and Denmark goes to great lengths to search for ethnic Danes due to its shrinking population and its increased problems with Muslim immigrants. They have been marginalized and have become very violent most recently but it boggles my mind since Danes are probably the most liberal people in the world next to Swedes. Unless the Muslim population marginalized themselves I can offer no explanation. Back to citizenship, if need be I could marry a Danish girl. I will have to ask the people of the ecovillage more about visas etc. since I don't think working in the ecovillage would qualify me for a working visa and that would mean I have 3 months time to stay. I'm not sure what type of visa I could get if I wished to live in the commune. Difficult question. Anyone have a website I could visit or any ideas on this? Citizenship will pose a problem.
Posted: Tue Jun 17, 2008 1:58 pm Post subject: Re: Well Gentlement, help me choose
Nicholai
here is a link in english to the danish ministry of intergration. You can find answers there. http://www.nyidanmark.dk/en-US. It is very difficult to get a work visa, they tightened the rules for everyone a few years back to reduce the number of "family imigrations" from third world (mideast)countries. They had to make the rules the same for all (politically correct). I married a dane so I can live and work here without being a citizen. If you have any IT skills, computer science etc. you could get a green card though. By the way 10,000 cdn will not get you very far here. Minimum wage for example is around 20 bucks an hour.
Joined: Jun 15, 2007 Posts: 591 Location: St.Albert, AB
Posted: Tue Jun 17, 2008 2:42 pm Post subject: Re: Well Gentlement, help me choose
dday:
I completely forgot to respond to your generous offer. I would definitely enjoy meeting another peakoil member and I'm sure we could go for coffee or beer and your bed and breakfast does look very lovely, I'll have to give it a look when I come over.
As for the money question, I hope to have about 10,000 euros before I leave. I hope that makes somewhat of a difference but I'm very limited in my options. If I can't find anything I like and come back from Europe to Canada, I would likely just work in Fort MacMurry for a few months and save up 25,000$ and build an attachment to my professors home near Calgary. My gut tells me that Svanholm will be a very good place to be since I could work outside of the community and participate in the ecovillage as well. Denmark does appear very well positioned to ride the wave for a short period of time but I believe all countries will be put in periods of desperation once we are down to 65 mbd etc. Your home is actually quite close to Svanholm, ever thought of giving it a visit?
Anyways, to conclude, I can't say I want to stay in my current situation. I can't say staying with one other individual near Calgary will be a great deal of fun either but it looks like the safest place to be. Not fun, but safe. Quebec seems interesting and enjoyable but they are not mentally prepared for what is to come. They need serious adjustments if they want to ride the slide and become self sufficient. Svanholm is in a heavily populated country with a strong restriction on immigration...what to do about that remains to be seen. Norway has a more flexible immigration policy because of its need for skilled labour at the moment. They have an enormous surplus of wealth and a small population far from the massive populous of the European continent below them. Finland seems possible but the language is difficult along with immigration and mandatory military service.
What I would do to be 20 years older. Physically capable, economically capable, no strings attached. What I would give.
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