I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.
Conservatives tend to be like that. They put their private bugbears before the practicalities of civil society, and then look for someone to blame when the system is put under stress or falls apart. The Religious Right in the US weeps rivers over unborn, insensate zygotes and wants to imprison (or worse) anyone who would do them harm... but when all the labour pains are over and the baby draws its first breath, needs food, needs care and medical oversight and education... well, they wash their hands of the precious zygote realized at that point, and suddenly it's all the fault of them worthless, shiftless welfare baby-mommies! The hypocrisy is infurating, and the Pope's stand on contraception is just part-and-parcel with this kind of thing. _________________ I can has cheezburger?
I've just read a book called 'Why the rest hates the west' by Meic Pearse. He quotes from Huntington's 'The clash of civilisations' a bit. One point he makes in the book, based on a fair bit of empirical research, is that nations with low birth rates are generally nations in decline, while civilisations on the rise generally have higher birth rates. One wonders if the likes of China, for example, are living off their past. The next generation of pampered Chinese may not be too much more disciplined than the declining west. In comparison, many Islamic nations have growing birth rates.
I am not Roman Catholic, although I do stand very much in the tradition of mainstram, historic, orthodox Christianity. I have a few children. This, however, I have noticed. We consume less than some of our siblings who have very few or no kids. They are the ones who continually jump on jet airliners and go on overseas trips, eat exotic seafood, etc.
My wife and I have a full sex life, but are also very controlled in the area of sex. We do not adopt a contraceptive mentality, but do use contraception, we believe, responsibly. We avoid any contraception that may harm a fertilized egg such as the IUD or pill.
At the end of the day, you and I, while agreeing on PO, may be operating within differing paradigms. I believe that if people on a large scale followed the ethics of Scriptue with it's regard for creation and sought the true God as revealed in Christ, He could and would find solutions to the world's problems. We have rejected Him for long enough, and our humanistic philosophies and materilaistic practices are becoming the means of our own self destruction. I think Romans One in the Christian Bible actually tells us that when in our arrogance we reject God, He actually hands us over to all sorts of self destruction and vice. Yet He wishes to, and is able to forgive, accept, and free us. Not perfectionism this side of the wonderful eternity He has won for His own. We will still struggle with our old flawed natures. It is just that they won't dominate us. And such a future includes an abundance with no detrimental side affects and a fully restored and transformed cosmos beyond our comprehension. Worth considering!
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 8:42 am Post subject: Re: Pope on infinite growth?
sufferringandglory wrote:
My wife and I have a full sex life, but are also very controlled in the area of sex. We do not adopt a contraceptive mentality, but do use contraception, we believe, responsibly. We avoid any contraception that may harm a fertilized egg such as the IUD or pill.
I'm guessing you are saying that your respect for life is such that you use contraception, but with restraint (avoiding certain methods). Sorry if I've misinterpretted.
My respect for life means that I worry the earth is only able to sustain its current population because of cheap fossil fuels and that the planet's carrying capacity will be billions less when these energy sources are not as abundant. If I'm right then there is a real threat of emense suffering in the near future; making urgent the widespread education on family planning.
Last edited by energycity on Thu Jul 17, 2008 8:44 am; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Jun 26, 2007 Posts: 1438 Location: The Canada of America
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 8:42 am Post subject: Re: Pope on infinite growth?
sufferringandglory wrote:
One point he makes in the book, based on a fair bit of empirical research, is that nations with low birth rates are generally nations in decline, while civilisations on the rise generally have higher birth rates.
He's reversing the trend of cause and effect. Societies that are doing well have the capacity to increase their populations. But increasing a population does not imply societies on the rise. If they did, Bangladesh would the most affluent society on the planet instead of a squalid misery full of too many people for too few resources crammed into Monsoon Bowling Alley Central.
On the other hand, we've reached a level of society where we don't need to have 15 kids to make sure three of them live long enough to look after us in our dotage. And that's given us the ability to take the resources that once had to support all those people and invest them in just a few... that's why, for better or worse, we have the big houses and the two and three car families and we can go on overseas trips and eat exotic foods, as you say. I don't think our declining birthrate is a sign of failure; on the contrary: it indicates we've reached the point where we can marshal our resources with far more efficacy in improving human lives.
sufferringandglory wrote:
I believe that if people on a large scale followed the ethics of Scriptue with it's regard for creation and sought the true God as revealed in Christ, He could and would find solutions to the world's problems. We have rejected Him for long enough... the Christian Bible actually tells us that when in our arrogance we reject God, He actually hands us over to all sorts of self destruction and vice. Yet He wishes to, and is able to forgive, accept, and free us.
What's the moral of the story here? Keep filling up a world of finite resources with kids, and if you pray real hard, God will solve the problems for us? And all the bad stuff is just proof we're not praying hard enough?
I hope God's better than you're giving Him credit for. I don't see a God worth the name in most of the Bible. I can't say I think much of the conception of God you're putting forward. So we're dropped down here into a world full of pain and suffering, starvation, cancer, disease, jealousy, murder, with just enough discernment to perceive the problem but an amount of wisdom that may or may not be adequate to relieving them. Creating such a world and populating it with such creatures... this is a loving act? I can hardly think so. I treat my cats with far more compassion than that. I look for ways and go to great expense to make their lives easier and more pleasant. I don't spend my time thinking up ways to make them suffer, or lay traps for them so I can punish them for being true to their nature (and I'm not even responsible for creating their nature in the first place, unlike God). Frankly, I can't think much of a God who fills a world with misery and leaves us in it alone, and won't lift a finger until we come crawling on our bellies, defeated and wretched. I see more of Big Brother than a loving creator in such actions. If that's your God, you can have Him. I think the rest of us would do better to realize we're on our own and we have to work together to achieve what we can. Maybe it's futile, but it's better than groveling to the psychopath the Bible suggests is looking out for us.
Quote:
God's Song (That's Why I Love Mankind) Randy Newman
Cain slew Abel, Seth knew not why
For if the children of Israel were to multiply
Why must any of the children die?
So he asked the Lord
And the Lord said:
Man means nothing, he means less to me
Than the lowliest cactus flower
Or the humblest Yucca tree
He chases round this desert
'Cause he thinks that's where I'll be
That's why I love mankind
I recoil in horror from the foulness of thee
From the squalor and the filth and the misery
How we laugh up here in heaven at the prayers you offer me
That's why I love mankind
The Christians and the Jews were having a jamboree
The Buddhists and the Hindus joined on satellite TV
They picked their four greatest priests
And they began to speak
They said, "Lord, a plague is on the world
Lord, no man is free
The temples that we built to you
Have tumbled into the sea
Lord, if you won't take care of us
Won't you please, please let us be?"
And the Lord said
And the Lord said
I burn down your cities-how blind you must be
I take from you your children and you say how blessed are we
You all must be crazy to put your faith in me
That's why I love mankind
You really need me
That's why I love mankind.
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 4376 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 10:52 am Post subject: Re: Pope on infinite growth?
sufferringandglory wrote:
In comparison, many Islamic nations have growing birth rates.
They are screwed. Look at Gaza, for instance.
sufferringandglory wrote:
We consume less than some of our siblings who have very few or no kids.
A human being has base resource needs even if you just factor in clean water and food. Overpopulation will kill us off no matter how much we "power down". It's only a matter of when.
sufferringandglory wrote:
I believe that if people on a large scale followed the ethics of Scriptue with it's regard for creation and sought the true God as revealed in Christ, He could and would find solutions to the world's problems.
From what I can tell, Christianity is a cynical religion in the sense that it writes off the future of humanity as being inherently doomed, requiring divine intervention to save the remnants.
This is not a philosophy that is conducive to the idea of humanity controlling its destiny. If anything, it provides a convenient "out" for people to disregard these problems as Jesus will ride in with the cavalry if and when TSHTF. This will only create a self-fulfilling prophesy, so to speak. _________________ As long as I am around, there are no worries we have reached "Peak Words"
Joined: Jun 26, 2007 Posts: 1438 Location: The Canada of America
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 11:12 am Post subject: Re: Pope on infinite growth?
mos6507 wrote:
sufferringandglory wrote:
In comparison, many Islamic nations have growing birth rates.
They are screwed. Look at Gaza, for instance.
I rather think Israel is screwed by this trend in the long run.
mos6507 wrote:
From what I can tell, Christianity is a cynical religion in the sense that it writes off the future of humanity as being inherently doomed, requiring divine intervention to save the remnants.
This is not a philosophy that is conducive to the idea of humanity controlling its destiny. If anything, it provides a convenient "out" for people to disregard these problems as Jesus will ride in with the cavalry if and when TSHTF. This will only create a self-fulfilling prophesy, so to speak.
Too right. Except it's not about divine intervention saving any remnants. The remnants are the ones who get to go to Hell. The saved ones get taken directly up into Heaven prior to judgement in what's called "the Rapture". When I was a kid, a Christian comic outlining the idea called it "the Great Snatch"... which came to have other, more comical meanings for me and my contemporaries within a few years. The ironic thing is that once the Great Snatch appears, it's the ones who DON'T disappear into it who are f***ed.
I've actually seen bumper stickers that read "In case of Rapture, this vehicle will be unmanned." You want to wait till these people are getting out and run them over. Their whole attitude is that they're saved, screw you. In their estimation, their infinitely "merciful" God will see to it that not only are you damned for doubting, but that you and your family will be dispatched to Hell that much earlier by this creep's gas-guzzling SUV (and you always see them on SUVs) careening all over the highway, driverless. It makes me wonder about people who first of all think that a compassionate creator would do this, and that they themselves are just fine with it. _________________ I can has cheezburger?
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 3:45 pm Post subject: Re: Pope on infinite growth?
Nickel wrote:
Frankly, I can't think much of a God who fills a world with misery and leaves us in it alone, and won't lift a finger until we come crawling on our bellies, defeated and wretched.
My reply:
This is a far cry from the sufferring, crucified God, incarnate in and with his creation even now, still sufferring, that is at the heart of the Christian revelation.
Regarding the rapure that mos referred to. This is not a belief that is a part of the mainstream Christian tradition, but something held by some mainly U.S. evangelicals who would make up less than one percent of Christians world wide. To stereotype Christians in this way would be like me stereotyping modern day pagans as child sacrificers. This would be extremely poor form as the vast majority of pagans I know and know of do not subscribe to this practice. We need to be careful when commenting on someones else's belief system so that we are in fact representing it acurately.
We need to also distinguish between the religious right in the U.S. (as wel as many secular western christians and the vast numbers of christians world wide. for example, the vast majority of christians oppose the Iraq war, are keeen to tackle climate change, conserve and so on. Care for creation and Chris't redemption of it are essential parts of the christian message.
Joined: Jun 20, 2007 Posts: 546 Location: USS Poland
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 5:35 pm Post subject: Re: Pope on infinite growth?
During past centuries people had more children but about 20% of them died just after they came into this world. The number of miscarriages was also much higher.
Another 30-40% died because of diseases and malnutrition during their childhood. It was "Mother Nature/God" regulating birth control. Sometimes little pandemonium made the "population correction" and we - proud humans - invented war as the best tool.
However it's a gift of modern science and industrialism that we can use antibiotics, vaccines, and other pharmceutical stuff plus the outcomes of green revolution - and because of these great inventions we are in overshoot Population doubled in last 30 years.
In the end of a day we have only two solutions.
Promote family planning and birth control or we are back to "the good old days". If we stay in overshoot longer, the chance to lower population as humane as possible is disappearing. And many here think "the good old days" are inevitably coming back to town.
So talking about "god" and mixing idea of it with condom or pill shows only the condition of human reason in general. We are in the middle of nowhere and we won't change unless we are dead. _________________ The poor complain; they always do,
But that's just idle chatter.
Our system brings rewards to all,
At least to all who matter.
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 5:46 pm Post subject: Re: Pope on infinite growth?
energycity wrote:
My respect for life means that I worry the earth is only able to sustain its current population because of cheap fossil fuels and that the planet's carrying capacity will be billions less when these energy sources are not as abundant. If I'm right then there is a real threat of emense suffering in the near future; making urgent the widespread education on family planning.
Too little, too late. Even if we just replaced ourselves, it would take 50 to 75 years to reach ZPG due to demographics. 1-child policy 25 years. Birth control alone is not enough to make any difference in any relevant time frame.
That is our huge dilemma.
The rise in the standard of living, that has caused fertility rates to drop in the developed world, will not happen in the developing countries post peak.
The world population growth rate is now starting to rise once again from a low of 1.14% in 2004 to 1.16% this year. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 5:48 pm Post subject: Re: Pope on infinite growth?
mos6507 wrote:
Overpopulation will kill us off no matter how much we "power down". It's only a matter of when.
Yes, even if peak oil disappears. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 5:58 pm Post subject: Re: Pope on infinite growth?
Alcassin wrote:
In the end of a day we have only two solutions.
Promote family planning and birth control or we are back to "the good old days". If we stay in overshoot longer, the chance to lower population as humane as possible is disappearing. And many here think "the good old days" are inevitably coming back to town..
As I said before, population demographics prevetns birth control from having any impact on population in any relevant time frame.
The chance to lower population as humane as possible is long gone.
The population went up due to a decrease in the death rate as you just posted.
To go down, it must do the opposite.
I know of no way to increase the death rate humanely.
But we are going to have to find a way we can agree on, or acquiesce to nature...who will do what works and not what is humane.
Wouldn't you?
Some hard choices lie ahead.
I'd like to have a say in how we do that before Mother Nature does. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Jun 20, 2007 Posts: 546 Location: USS Poland
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 6:36 pm Post subject: Re: Pope on infinite growth?
MonteQuest wrote:
As I said before, population demographics prevetns birth control from having any impact on population in any relevant time frame.
I wrote that keeping in mind your posts: many here think "the good old days" are inevitably coming back to town...
We are only speeding up the process by growth.
Quote:
The population went up due to a decrease in the death rate as you just posted.
Yes, and I don't know why many people don't understand this fact. We could have 7 billion people during Julius Caesar but Romans hadn't invented modern pharmacy and modern agriculture.
However during that time Rome had 1 million people, and 400 years later only 10 thousand.
War, hunger, pestilence, lawlessness and murder.
That was the solution.
And people didn't make their choices.
Quote:
To go down, it must do the opposite.
I know of no way to increase the death rate humanely.
Me neither.
Quote:
But we are going to have to find a way we can agree on, or acquiesce to nature...who will do what works and not what is humane.
Wouldn't you?
If you don't know the best solution MQ, who knows what to find and agree on? Any "quick" solution I know is completely inhumane, and I'm not going to support it.
Quote:
Some hard choices lie ahead.
I'd like to have a say in how we do that before Mother Nature does.
I don't think she is going to listen during her preparation.
However I still hope the future isn't going to be so dark as you expect, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is. _________________ The poor complain; they always do,
But that's just idle chatter.
Our system brings rewards to all,
At least to all who matter.
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