Bernanke All But Admits Peak Oil

Marie · Tar Sands Joined: Apr 13, 2005 Posts: 29

From the NY Times:

allenwrench · Intermediate Crude Joined: Apr 23, 2008 Posts: 838

Maybe someday those knuckleheads will have the balls to utter the words P E A K O I L

Serial_Worrier · Heavy Crude Joined: Jun 05, 2008 Posts: 233

Everything's fine in my Cornucopian Razz

universe!

drew

He blamed the evil NOCs and countries unwilling to allow development, while hinting at PO by referencing the declines of mature basins like the north sea.

I too thought it resembled an oblique admission of peak.

Drew

ROCKMAN

I'm with you Serial-worrier...life is grand and getting better everyday. But then I'm a petroleum geologist who has seen his income double in the last 4 years.

Yeah PO!!!

Mominator · Heavy Crude Joined: Jun 26, 2008 Posts: 106 Location: FL

I think we're going to see more oblique references. Gradually the concept of peak oil will come to the forefront. The words "peak oil" will probably be rarely spoken though.

A couple of days ago I was watching CNBC & they had a clip of H. Paulsen. Midway thru he started to say something about supply/demand issues and oil. It almost looked like he caught himself and he started a new sentence.

Anyone see that? I wish I remember what he was talking about so I could find a reference.
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dohboi · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Dec 05, 2005 Posts: 1250

rock, are your seeing more people coming into the field? Simmons is as concerned about the lack of skilled geologists as he is about physical oil shortages. Are his fears misplaced?

Oh, and can you loan me a few grand?? Wink

ROCKMAN

dohboi,

The business has always been cyclical. When I decided to major in geology in 1970 there was no such thing as a career as a petroleum geologist. I was young/dumb enough to do it just because I liked it. When I got out of grad school in '75 things were just starting to boom. By '80 enrollments in geo and engin. shot up. By the time they started graduating in the early 80's they couldn't even get an interview let alone a job. $10/bbl will do that. During the bust in the mid 80's it was estimated that the oil patch lost over 500,000 jobs. In 1986 biz had slowed so much I was delivering produce to restaurants to make up for lost income.

Right now there is a very uneven age distribution in the oil patch. Just a guess but in the next 5 years probably 25% or more of the most experienced hands will be hanging it up. It takes at least 5 to 8 years on the job for a geologist to really begin to contribute in a meaningful way. Some engineering jobs at the high and critical end of the food chain need at least 15 to 20 years of experience. The only thing offset the declining experience fact has been the technological advances. Some projects that would take a month to do by hand 30 years ago I can do even better now in 3 days with the aid of a computer. Given the booms and busts I've seen over the last 33 years I'm not sure how strong I would recommend an oil patch career right now. Things are booming but in 4 or 6 years who can be certain. Oil companies react very quickly to price drops. They'll cut their staff 50% overnight if they think they can get away from it.

dohboi · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Dec 05, 2005 Posts: 1250

Thanks, Rockman, and best of luck in all the coming twists and turns.

shakespear1 · Light Sweet Crude Joined: May 13, 2005 Posts: 1552

ROCKMAN

Yes, you are spot on.

As a reservoir engineer I can add that to be up to speed (working more or less by yourself) doing reservoir simulation will take about 5 yrs. Now you are running it but the depth of knowledge to attack "any" problem will take 10-15 yrs. Why? The mathematical modeling is one learning curve. However the next is understanding the production process , fluid properties another, geology and surprises found here takes even more time.

Ideally a candidate for this job should in my opinion someone who has gone through the different departments close to the well to understand the "reality" before he tries to reflect it in a mathematical one. Not an easy task and often does not happen. In this case "special adjustments" are made to fit thing together. Smile

Garbage in is garbage out. So so true in the Oil Patch !!!!!
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