I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.
^^ particularly this graph, in which, if I'm reading it correctly, the grey areas show actual production, and the other lines and curves show predictions made by various people/groups.
what caught my attention was Duffeyes' prediction, which, according to the graph as a whole, appears to be way off compared to actual production numbers presented.
This puzzles me.
Duffeyes is a pretty sharp cat, who by all accounts has a keen understanding of the situation....
I wonder why he's so far off, or at least appears to be?
Also, some of the predictions call for peak production in the 'hood of 90-95 million bbls/day, which, according to my reading, is fantasyland.
Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:02 am Post subject: Re: Questions about Graph posted at the Oil Drum
I think it has to do with what liquids are included. Crude, condensate, all liquids, etc.
IIRC, Matt Simmons said there's a lot more condensate being produced than expected. He suspects that it's declining fields blowing off their gas caps. It's a one-time thing, done when a field is at the end of its productive life, so it's not really a good sign if this is indeed what is happening. _________________ "The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
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