I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.
Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 10:36 pm Post subject: What would you do?
We have had an unbelievable run of weirdness in the past 6 weeks: boss died, washer broke, husband got hit by a car while on his bicycle, got red tagged by the city for a 2 year old fence, husband got laid off unexpectedly and my grandma died. Yikes.
So, after a month and a half of rather unpleasant life events, we are ready to make a change. We are in our late 30s with a 4 year old, currently living 6 miles from downtown Houston. Thankfully, we are out of debt except for the house. We have some savings. We could rent our house for income if we move to the country.
Should we pack up and move to the country? How would one make a living in the country? Should we start our own post peak company here in the city? Go back to school?
So, what would you do if you were in our situation?
Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:48 pm Post subject: Re: What would you do?
Not enough info, but it's good to see that you're actively thinking about it.
Me, I'm a big doomer. I think being in or near any large city is asking to be gang beaten and left for dead.
But that's just me.
There're some crazy people on this site who think living in a city with 1/2 million starving and pissed off people makes sense. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 12:08 am Post subject: Re: What would you do?
yes definitely move to the country. And by country i dont mean a few miles outside the suburbs. Look for a small rural community 4+ hours from any metropolis that has good/excellent local small-scale agriculture. there's a lot of other factors involved in selecting a good location....but thats a start. just dont underestimate the importance of making the best possible selection.
how to make a living....i dont know what your skillsets are. However as a father of a 7 and 10 year old my suggestion is to involve your child completely. start a business thats gonna thrive post collapse.
bike shop, food supplier/coop/soup kitchen, energy efficient/low energy housing retrofits as quick examples. consider the value of having a business that can hire jobless people to provide a valuable community service post SHTF.
but most important part is to build a rock solid family unit and then expand your circle of influence to include neighbors and community.
you may need to drastically rethink what "make a living" means.
unlikely that starting a business in houston would be a good idea n 2008.
also unlikely that you have time to go back to school.
not enough info to say what id do in your situation, but i would look for areas that you have relatives or close friends to kick start your integration into a new community. if none exists, look for an area where you "fit in" as far as race/religeon/income. the longer you wait the harder it will be to become accepted unless you have valuable skills to offer. _________________ "The future power is manpower"
Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 5:26 am Post subject: Re: What would you do?
Quote:
6 miles from downtown Houston
A couple of questions:
Do you have relatively safe job(s) that will be going for the next year or so?
Do you like it where you are? Are the people friendly? Are people maintaining their homes?
Are there more potential rental properties that could be had locally? Maybe you could get a couple more for cheap right now, and start a little empire.
There is no compelling reason for you to move. In fact, moving out of your normal comfort zone is not a good idea generally because you have to learn how to be, and that takes time.
Downtown Houston is not going away. Six miles away is bike commuting distance, notwithstanding the husband's recent experience. You can probably find some type of work down there, all the way through oilmageddon, emptying Matt Simmons' trash if nothing else.
Once the kid hits school age, you are going to find it a lot more difficult to move. Don't worry about the zombie hordes.
Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 8:15 am Post subject: Re: What would you do?
diemos wrote:
I wouldn't make major life decisions so soon after having all that happen to me.
Scout is already facing major life decisions based on her recent events.
MadScientist wrote:
wrote: start a business thats gonna thrive post collapse. bike shop, food supplier/coop/soup kitchen
Are these 'businesses' really gonna thrive post-collapse, or just be be the first to be attacked, raped and plundered by the desperate hordes?
desperate hordes are one of the reasons I suggest relocating several hundred miles from a metro area and doing everything you can to strengthen your local community.
Quote:
Downtown Houston is not going away. Six miles away is bike commuting distance, notwithstanding the husband's recent experience. You can probably find some type of work down there, all the way through oilmageddon, emptying Matt Simmons' trash if nothing else.
Once the kid hits school age, you are going to find it a lot more difficult to move. Don't worry about the zombie hordes.
this raises another important point. Theres a wide range of views on just how bad things will get. You need educate yourself quickly and thoroughly on the issues and find your own personal view upon which to act. Personally i believe dieoff is inevitable, whether it happens through war, starvation or some other event. At the risk of offending pup55 here, disregarding the possiblility of starving desperate people in a city the size of houston is a rather Pollyana view for this stage in the game. _________________ "The future power is manpower"
Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 9:03 am Post subject: Re: What would you do?
We are not looking for a quick fix or to jump into anything overnight. We figure we have about 3 years to get set up. But it has made us stop and think. In a way, it has been very freeing - like winning the lottery. And, amazingly, through all of this, we are fairly cheery. Mortgage is embarrassingly low. Watching the light bill. I think if we had debt we'd be in panic mode. We could get jobs pretty easily in our field in Houston. Just maybe looking for alternatives. And preparing for the worst.
We do have some skills - husband is an avid cyclist - races most weekends - a bike shop might be in our future. We have building/construction skills. I have a teaching degree. We've been reading a lot about living off the grid, gardening and raising farm animals. We not only find it will be necessary, but it is also appealing.
My Grandma's (dad's mom) funeral was in Arkansas. We stayed with my mom's parents in Texarkana (TX) - they have 200 acres. They are 91 and 87. I asked them about the depression. Grandpa lived in the city and said he worked hard and suffered a bit. Grandma lived in the country and hardly knew any hardship. Her dad died when she was 11 and she had 9 siblings. She had a job making brooms and they had a farm.
We have a great community where we are - just not much room for gardening. Real estate is not affordable in our area. Maybe in a few years when people really start hurting. The good thing about staying here is that we can maintain life until it slowly disintegrates. On our block - 6 houses - we have a retired cop, gunsmith, nurse, truck driver, 2 teachers and a geologist. We all have construction and gardening skills. If we could fortify ourselves, we'd be all right, I think.
Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 9:26 am Post subject: Re: What would you do?
The doomer/denialist debate is endless here at PO and where you line up on the continuum is probably a function of you own mindset.
I believe we are headed, at best for a very serious depression that will last for many years. In that time centralized industrial society will slowing disintegrate in different places at different rates. Chaos will reign in some places, order in others. All affects will become regional then local as energy and transport shortages reduce national-scale influences, excepting the US military.
You have to decide how you local neighborhood or other destination is suited to a lower energy paradigm. Will you have access to public transport, security, water and food. Do you live (within walking or biking distance) to an active train line, superhighway, police station, water source etc. Are there very wealthy neighborhood near you that will be protected at any cost?
Conversely are you stuck in a suburban sprawl completely dependent on cars for services? Is there room for garden, grazing and neighbors who you trust who can create a security system?
This is the difficult decision: You must now weather perhaps years of doubt, as the American system seems to holds together but slowly and imperceptibly deteriorates. There will be no single message or event telling you to change. You will want to deny and maintain the illusion of permanence and the dream of your happy past. Ignore that. Watch. Listen. Prepare.
You need to to continue to make an income but keep an eye on future land, community, security and be ready to move in a wink. Choose alternatives in the country (with family friends etc. but bring something to the table to offer) or consider the worst house on the best block in the city for protection.
good luck. you have friends here. _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 7:08 pm Post subject: Re: What would you do?
Quote:
At the risk of offending pup55
pup55 appreciates respectful disagreement. I can only think about what happened during the Rita evacuation, when this area was cleared out of some of its residents. Despite some incidents, including the bus full of smoking elderly on oxygen that exploded dear Dallas, I thought there was a chance in this very city to descend into chaos, a la New Orleans.
But, it did not. Maybe someone can provide some detail on this, but I think a lot of people in Houston were good sports, and took it in stride. Will they take the next disaster in stride? Who knows.
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 7:30 pm Post subject: Re: What would you do?
I dissent from Pup 55.
Do not ignore the risk of what happen when a city of 2 million people can't be properly fed. Or when the gas stations are empty.
It is my opinion that being near (w/in 20 miles minimum) of any big city is a huge mistake.
The bigger the city, the bigger the ring I'd avoid.
PStarr is right, in that you have to make your own call on how bad things are going to get.
I'm way on the "really bad" side of the spectrum, so there's my bias. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 5:41 pm Post subject: Re: What would you do?
Slow down, take a deep breath. Live where you have a paid job until you think things through.
Do you have any family or good friends who live in a more rural area? Does that area have rain, rivers/lakes, farmland, wood?
Take some time to stock up on some basics - food, water, medicines, tools, seeds - and keep reading. Keep breathing. Keep hoping and working to make a good life wherever you are.
Hug your kid! (I'm a single mom with a preschooler )
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 7:55 pm Post subject: Re: What would you do?
MadScientist wrote:
desperate hordes are one of the reasons I suggest relocating several hundred miles from a metro area and doing everything you can to strengthen your local community
You know, people hav lived in cities for a few hundred years, even before there was the modern agricultural age. Besides, most of the cities have infrastrstructures that will allow any help (e.g. Food etc.) be dispearsed more easily. Going "out of the way" of the major cities is not necessarily a BAD idea, but you are pretty much on your own, there will be very little help from the outside (if any).
Having said this: If you can achieve largely selfsufficency before it all goes *boom* (or is that *doom*?), you're most likely better off in the wild, but I am not sure the majority of people has the skills OR the time to achieve this.
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 7:20 am Post subject: Re: What would you do?
Snowrunner wrote:
MadScientist wrote:
desperate hordes are one of the reasons I suggest relocating several hundred miles from a metro area and doing everything you can to strengthen your local community.
You know, people hav lived in cities for a few hundred years, even before there was the modern agricultural age. Besides, most of the cities have infrastrstructures that will allow any help (e.g. Food etc.) be dispearsed more easily. Going "out of the way" of the major cities is not necessarily a BAD idea, but you are pretty much on your own, there will be very little help from the outside (if any).
Having said this: If you can achieve largely selfsufficency before it all goes *boom* (or is that *doom*?), you're most likely better off in the wild, but I am not sure the majority of people has the skills OR the time to achieve this.
i dont think the "help" you imagine is the help you'll get. Regardless, counting on outside help is iffy at best. Just think about Katrina and extrapolate that to every city simultaneously.
Also, I'm not in any way advocating moving to the wilderness and trying to be self sufficient. That takes years and is very difficult. There's a third option....find one of a multitude of small communities that have a lot of local small scale farming, still wave to each other, are populated by folks who still have country style skillsets. So rather than trying to learn ALL the skills, take what you're best at and offer it to a small community in exchange for the rest of your needs.
Based on the new info scout has supplied, I have some new suggestions:
-Strengthen your local community. The first step is to build relationships with your immediate neighbors. NOT by charging in screaming doom n gloom lol. Let's take the gunsmith for example. Maybe he's a bachelor. Stop and chat with him a couple times a week. Show interest in him. Maybe take him dinner once in awhile. It's not terribly hard to get on a person's A list. Once you have a friendship established, show interest in his skills. People love to share their knowledge. You want to be known, liked, and considered valuable to ALL your close neighbors. Imagine your relationships with them as a thread of light stretching from you to them that brightens and thickens as your relationship strengthens.
Secondly, get invloved with your local emergency/safety system. Volunteer, support, maybe take an emt or firefighter course. The more of these people you are known and respected by the better.
Third, explore your local food support system. Food banks, coops, churches, etc. volunteer, invest, make friends.
Fourth, the bike shop ideas sounds perfect for you. Bikes are about worthless right now...I say that because I can go to the scrapyard and see a dozen or so bikes that have many useable parts thrown away as junk. Hell of a good time to invest in a future goldmine.
Last- none of this requires a peep about peak oil.
-Plan B: Grandma's farm. Sounds like a perfect place for a fallback plan if you need to get out of the city. _________________ "The future power is manpower"
Joined: May 20, 2008 Posts: 331 Location: Tennessee
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:29 pm Post subject: Re: What would you do?
We made a lifestyle change about 1 year ago. We were living in SW Florida that was rapidly changing and becoming more crowded. I agree to some degree with Cashmere, the population mix that was developing was the type I feel would slash your throat in a heartbeat to get what they wanted-we were seeing a big increase in crime when we were there-imagine the blowup when/if things became desparate. We now live in a somewhat rural/agricultural southern town, most importantly its been a very different lifestyle for our kids in a positive manner. Our cost of living is approx. 1/3 of what it cost in FL and have enough resources in this community to, I feel, weather the storms. There's alot of factors you have to consider, but one of the most compelling for us was the environment we wanted for our kids not just now, but 10 + years from now (our youngest just turned 5 years old).
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