I will believe the Saudis don't see any upcoming problems with Ghawar when they cancel one of their projects due to low oil prices. If they continue to be full steam ahead with increasing their capacity then I think they are aware that Ghawar may not be as robust in 5 years time as they would like us to believe.
Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 11:21 pm Post subject: What is the First-World Tipping Point?
Hi all,
Many a time I have read about how western Europe manages to get by on about half the oil consumption per capita as the US, and in many ways (west) Europeans generally have living standards which are slightly better than their US cousins. This curious situation has me wondering: what might the correlation be between average living standards and oil consumption per capita in a given country??
Is it possible that reducing oil consumption per capita actually improves living standards up to a point but then causes a (possibly sharp) decrease in living standards once oil becomes too scarce? Or is the relationship much more complex and context-specific (e.g. other factors play an important role such as prices of energy, prices of other goods, people's responses as informed by cultural mentality, avaliability of alternative ways of doing things, etc etc).
Essentially, what I would be interested to know is: what is the minimum level of per capita oil and/or energy consumption that would allow a person to sustain a recognizably first-world standard of living??
Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 11:33 pm Post subject: Re: What is the First-World Tipping Point?
It is a mistake, I think to make broad equations across locations. Just as one cannot expect to get the same corn yields in Sicily as Iowa once cannot automatically equate energy consumption with a living standard without taking a variety of considerations into account.
Just one example would be the distance people live away from ports. I will go out on a limb here and suggest that the average American lives farther away from a port than the average European. It takes more energy (in the form of trucks or trains) to get a foreign made I-pod to me than it does to the average European, using more energy.
There is also the question of the energy consumed to make the goods exported by any given nation or group of nations in contrast to one another. If a country exports steel I would guess that they use more energy than a nation that produces a lot of cheese or perhaps oil or maybe financial services.
So each nation is going to have its own tipping point based upon the many web of relationships and the particulars of its individual dependencies. Trying to determine what will happen when is kind of like trying to predict the moment the rain will start to fall. You can see the clouds, hear the wind but it is a waste of time to make a bet on the second the first drop will hit your head.
Best to spend that effort picking up your tools, getting in the house and getting ready for rain. _________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
Joined: Jun 29, 2008 Posts: 83 Location: San Luis Obispo, CA / San Jose, CA
Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 11:36 pm Post subject: Re: What is the First-World Tipping Point?
It seems to me to that the infrastructure and culture play a roll here. The way people get around, the pace of life, what they purchase, quantities of purchase, what they import, what they export, currency... all factors.
Joined: Aug 24, 2005 Posts: 412 Location: Costa Geriatrica, Spain
Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 12:38 am Post subject: Re: What is the First-World Tipping Point?
Precipice wrote:
Hi all,
Many a time I have read about how western Europe manages to get by on about half the oil consumption per capita as the US, and in many ways (west) Europeans generally have living standards which are slightly better than their US cousins. This curious situation has me wondering: what might the correlation be between average living standards and oil consumption per capita in a given country??
Quite loose. The difference between US and European levels of energy usage is mainly a historical accident. Most European cities have a highly compact mixed usage layout developed in the Mediaeval period, when everything was shifted by hand or horse/ox cart. Same does not apply to the US, where the layout developed in response to zoning laws introduced in the 19th century and the car & cheap gasoline in the 20th. This has been re-enforced by the high fuel tax regime in Europe, as opposed to low tax in USA.
Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 12:48 am Post subject: Re: What is the First-World Tipping Point?
Precipice wrote:
Hi all,
Many a time I have read about how western Europe manages to get by on about half the oil consumption per capita as the US, and in many ways (west) Europeans generally have living standards which are slightly better than their US cousins. This curious situation has me wondering: what might the correlation be between average living standards and oil consumption per capita in a given country??
Is it possible that reducing oil consumption per capita actually improves living standards up to a point but then causes a (possibly sharp) decrease in living standards once oil becomes too scarce? Or is the relationship much more complex and context-specific (e.g. other factors play an important role such as prices of energy, prices of other goods, people's responses as informed by cultural mentality, avaliability of alternative ways of doing things, etc etc).
Essentially, what I would be interested to know is: what is the minimum level of per capita oil and/or energy consumption that would allow a person to sustain a recognizably first-world standard of living??
Depending on what you mean by "living standards". If you use the basic GDP/capita I think only Luxembourg is better of than the US.
One major difference EU/US is that fuel is heavily taxed in the EU. Petrol/Diesel cost $9/gallon, so we buy more energy efficient cars, and we have more public transportation that run on electricity. Up north our homes are better insulated and in the south not all people have AC in their homes.
I would say the general differences are that we are poorer and we have adopted to higher cost energy, investing more in using the energy more efficient. In addition we do not have such a huge military. The U.S. has kept us safe for 63 years and we have not paid a dollar for that… _________________ Me Tar sands, you Jane
Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 1:08 am Post subject: Re: What is the First-World Tipping Point?
US-Americans - only excuses!
I guess it takes more energy to transport the ipod from China (or where ever it is made) than from the port to your home.
Yes cities are different in Europe but Europeans didn't have the possibility to plan American cities, whereas we copied American solutions after the second world war which was quite desastrous (our own fault). Have there been huge demonstrations against new motorways in the US?
It's more about habits. Why does and average US household has a clothes dryer whereas an average European does not? More of us are living in small apartments were it's diffiult to get the clothes dry.
Why do you drive bigger cars? You buy them, not your government.
Why do Americans have their meal in MCxxx and we cook mainly at home?
This post is quite nasty, and Europeans are surely not the better guys but the higher energy consumption cannot only be explained by external things.
When I was a kid in the 60th, a relative was married with an US soldier. I was really impressed how wasteful they were compared to the other households I knew.
Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 1:39 am Post subject: Re: What is the First-World Tipping Point?
And the fact that most of Europe is warmer than it should be thanks to ocean currents, is that an "excuse" also?
Sure there is plenty for us to blame ourselves for but not everything is an excuse. Europe is well served by its long coast line and the temp. regulating nature of water. Even keeping my house cold in January, I still use a lot of BTUs, even though I drive a 47 mpg vehicle, America is a bigger place than Denmark or France and while there is more freedom of movement with the EU, Americans have had the opportunity to spread out for much longer than Europe.
Do I travel to see my grandfather or to a funeral of a family friend? Accidents of history and geography have spread us out. I maintain community with them so I travel. If a family has spread to all corners of France over the last 50 years a "get together" will not use as much energy as the same family in the United States.
So are Americans at fault for some of the problem? Sure. Is there a role of chance and happenstance as well? Yes there is. _________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 1:49 am Post subject: Re: What is the First-World Tipping Point?
Olle wrote:
Depending on what you mean by "living standards". If you use the basic GDP/capita I think only Luxembourg is better of than the US.
Good point- but it is fair to say that west europeans at least have a comparable living standard to the US. I would be more inclined to look at the HDI rather than GDP/capita alone.
It would be a fair task in and of itself to define a living standard which is recognizeably 1st world, but I would say that some of the criteria might be:
Access to nutritious food and clean water, able to get at least 3 square meals a day
Decent medical facilities and modern medical care
Owning some form of transportation (at least a bicycle)
Having a roof over your head, and living in a dwelling that is superior to a shanty
Access to telecommunications and media of some form
Literacy
At least secondary school level education, access to tertiary eduction facilities
Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 1:51 am Post subject: Re: What is the First-World Tipping Point?
There is also the "accident" that we were producing a lot of oil at the time that we were building our model of transportation and the infrastructure to support it. Even today we do better than Europe as far a percentage of energy use produced at home.
So even before taxes the net loss of using energy is less since a larger percentage of that money stays at home. This will only increase because while our own production is in terminal decline I believe the North Sea fields are declining even faster.
We are responsible for (among other things) our failure to tax oil appropriately but it is an "accident" of economics and geology that we had so much to begin with and the effects of that abundance upon how we decided to organize our national transportation scheme. _________________ “It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him.”
Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 3:23 am Post subject: Re: What is the First-World Tipping Point?
Precipice wrote:
Hi all,
Many a time I have read about how western Europe manages to get by on about half the oil consumption per capita as the US, and in many ways (west) Europeans generally have living standards which are slightly better than their US cousins. This curious situation has me wondering: what might the correlation be between average living standards and oil consumption per capita in a given country??
1) I disagree with your numbers but moving along now
2) wisconsin_cur raises some good points
3) my turn now
This has been asked many times and there is a general consensus on this board with the exception of a minority of cornucopians --> you can NOT have decreasing energy use and an expanding economy.
example:
Suppose you have an economy that produces aluminum from bauxite ore. BTW aluminum smelting is one of the most energy intensive industries imaginable. The ratio of energy use to GDP is astronomically high. However if there was an economy that instead produced electric trains from aluminum metal the end product would be much more valuable thus the energy to GDP ratio would be smaller. Sounds great right? If you were running your own country it would make more sense to be in the business of producing aluminum trains but there's a problem. Not every nation can produce trains. SOMEBODY on this planet has to produce the aluminum metal or how the hell could you build a train?
One of the reasons why Europe enjoys such a low energy use to GDP is because a lot of the dirty, heavy energy manufacturing has been sent to Asia. China for example has a very high energy use per GDP ratio.
here's a good article. It's 5 pages long but just read the first and that explain alot:
China Grabs West’s Smoke-Spewing Factories
Quote:
HANDAN, China — When residents of this northern Chinese city hang their clothes out to dry, the black fallout from nearby Handan Iron and Steel often sends them back to the wash.
Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 3:37 am Post subject: Re: What is the First-World Tipping Point?
and the US sent a lot of dirty manufacturing to China. A service economy should use less energy than a manufacturing economy (which Europe still is)??
But you are right with all these raw materials.
Distances need energy, but significantly less with a working train system. Let's say your family would be spread out in Spain or Italy, you could but must not use the car in most cases.
Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 3:08 am Post subject: Re: What is the First-World Tipping Point?
Quote:
The most energy-efficient countries
Next year in Copenhagen, world leaders will assemble and attempt to write the successor agreement to the 10-year-old Kyoto protocol. In order for countries to make dramatic reductions for a greener future, energy efficiency will likely be a big part of the equation. What they'll find is a huge gap between countries with a head start, and those still in the blocks.
Not surprising, the countries with the most energy-efficient economies are those who import their energy supplies.
Japan leads the way. It is, after all, birthplace of the Kyoto Protocols for climate change. More important, Japan has very little domestic energy production and is forced to import most of its fuel supply — creating a powerful economic incentive to use those expensive imports efficiently.
The island nation uses 4,500 BTUs per U.S. dollar of gross domestic product, a measure known as "energy intensity," the world standard for measuring how efficient an economy is at using energy.
A country with a very high GDP and relatively little energy consumed is likely to be a very energy-efficient economy. Conversely a country with huge energy consumption and relatively little GDP is unlikely to be efficient. A BTU, or British thermal unit, is the amount of heat energy needed to raise the temperature of one pound of water by one degree Fahrenheit.
Of course, the use of energy intensity as a measure is not perfect and the results can be misleading. By the EIA's data, the country with the lowest energy intensity is Chad. True, Chad uses little energy, but the country is largely reliant on low-tech subsistence farming. Comparing it with the U.S. makes little sense.
So for our Forbes.com list we looked at only the 75 largest countries in terms of total GDP. Not surprisingly, the countries are wealthy and among the world's greenest as well, according to the Environmental Performance Index, a joint product of Columbia University and Yale University, which measures performance against 25 indicators, such as measures of air pollution, water supply or use of natural resources.
Switzerland, which ranks third for efficiency, is ranked as the greenest country. Austria is not far behind at sixth, with Germany and the U.K. also in the top 15.
The most energy-efficient countries are all similar to Japan. In many cases, they do not have access to abundant sources of energy and have sought efficiency as a matter of energy independence — in the case of (No. 2) Denmark as an urgent national priority since the oil shocks of the 1970s. Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel and Italy all make the list as well.
The U.S. doesn't. Using energy intensity as a measure, the U.S. is using slightly more than 9,000 BTUs per dollar of GDP. The top 10 countries use 7,500 BTUs or less. China uses 35,000 BTUs per dollar of GDP.
They're far from the worst, though. At the other end of the scale are former Soviet countries: Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Ukraine. Ukraine uses 138,000 BTUs of energy for every dollar of GDP — roughly 30 times the level of consumption in Japan. The aging energy infrastructure of these countries, a remnant from the not-so-efficient days of Soviet planning, has much room for improvement.
A note on sources: Different agencies give different estimates of energy consumption and GDP. For the purposes of our ranking, we looked at data released in October from the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The estimates of total primary energy consumption are those of the EIA. For GDP figures, the EIA used data from Global Insight. The October 2007 data is for the year 2005.
Headline in Reuters today: "Malaysia cuts gas prices for heavy industrial users."You either get it or you don't? _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 6:46 am Post subject: Re: What is the First-World Tipping Point?
If a tipping point is reached per se, I think it will be only
after a series of pragmatic responses in the way of
personal behavior changes en masse in society fail
to quench a step change in energy / cost relationships
and preserve a viable lifestyle.
We keep anticipating falling off a cliff on this forum.
We may just as well lose our shirts and have to wear
a barrel, and then ride that barrel over Niagara Falls.
Or then again, we might just roll down a very long and
gently sloping hill, barfing all over ourselves.
I do know that every time I expect the bogey man
in the deep dark of the night, I wake up with chigger
bites or poison ivy instead.
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:24 pm Post subject: Re: What is the First-World Tipping Point?
Precipice wrote:
(...)
It would be a fair task in and of itself to define a living standard which is recognizeably 1st world, but I would say that some of the criteria might be:
(list)
Just for starters...
Then I'm living in the first world, but "everyone says" that Costa Rica is in "third world". This first and third world division is quite simplistic and naive. The world is much more complex. I will talk more about our industrial civilization with various economical classes (richer or poorer) within various cultural contexts (countries). Not a 3 year old-level division in 2 "worlds". _________________ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Esteban.barahona // also including all world languages
http://samaelcero.wordpress.com http://pacchimayana.hi5.com http://anagami.deviantart.com
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 7:46 pm Post subject: Re: What is the First-World Tipping Point?
wisconsin_cur wrote:
There is also the "accident" that we were producing a lot of oil at the time that we were building our model of transportation and the infrastructure to support it. Even today we do better than Europe as far a percentage of energy use produced at home.
So even before taxes the net loss of using energy is less since a larger percentage of that money stays at home. This will only increase because while our own production is in terminal decline I believe the North Sea fields are declining even faster.
We are responsible for (among other things) our failure to tax oil appropriately but it is an "accident" of economics and geology that we had so much to begin with and the effects of that abundance upon how we decided to organize our national transportation scheme.
Nice graph. Good point. Ther eis though the fact that our GDP growth requires increased oil use at roughly twice the scale as Europe. There are some good numbers on this in Tartzakian.
Nuclear War might be a tipping point. A Second Great Depression following a financial meltdown might lead us into several major conflagrations in the Middle East.
I think peak oil itself is a global tipping point. Some of the impacts are delayed and some obtuse but peak oil is the driver of most of what will happen in the next couple decades.
It is ironic that how we use fossil fuels has given us both climate change and peak oil and all that implies.
Lately I have been captivated by the Golden Boy statue outside Rockefeller Center. It is actually Prometheus brining fire to humanity. Considering JDR's career and the legacy that is irony at it's most ironic. Did Prometheus know he was opening Pandora's Box?
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